ATL: IGOR - Models

[GoneBabyGone]

There seems to be a straight shot into SE US or a sharp recurve and no harm. Is it an either/or proposition? Or is there a chance the model splits the difference (which would mean bad things for the same areas Earl brushed)?

Also, what's causing the confusion? What are we watching that could determine this? Lay terms, please, as I know very little.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian Ensemble..Igor in the Bahamas

[terrapintransit]

Canadian Ensemble..Igor in the Bahamas

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten ... 0_0912.gif[/

HOLY S*#$.....Is that IGOR next to Florida there??? That is WAYYYYYY west on that run!

Edited by Ivanhater to to remove IMG tags

[boca]

Canadian Ensemble..Igor in the Bahamas

]http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cmcens/2010/09/09/basis12/noat/pslv/10092200_0912.gif[/

HOLY S*#$.....Is that IGOR next to Florida there??? That is WAYYYYYY west on that run!

I haven't been on S2K all day is that the latest run and where was Igor on the earlier run?

Edited by Ivanhater to remove IMG tags

[Ivanhater]

Please guys remove the IMG tags when quoting.

That is the Canadian ensemble run, not the operational.

[Vortex]

wow ivan...if I see a significant shift on the 00z gfs than I will certainly take the CMC ensembles more seriously...

[superfly]

Gotta love the BAMS and BAMM

[USTropics]

So far, comparing the 00z and the earlier 12z run of the GFS, out to 120 hours Igor appears a tad bit further south (around 16-18N) and a bit stronger (still far enough north to miss the islands)

[SouthFLTropics]

Is anyone going to post the 00Z GFS? I'm not sure where to go get it at...I normally get it here!

[Ivanhater]

Canadian has Igor stuck under the ridge

[Ivanhater]

UKMET is really far south

[KWT]

ECM still pulling the recurve idea as is most of the GFS/Ensemble runs but there is growing indications that a stronger high will try to form AND importantly the troughing flattens out which is what is key to keeping systems west in September.

This will be an interesting one though, the slower it moves and the more westerly it gets the greater the chances it gets caught in a developing upper high...its becoming lss clear cut by the minute...

[gatorcane]

00Z/12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF look to be recurves with the ECMWF a bit more west but still recurving.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 101254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC FRI SEP 10 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100910 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100910  1200   100911  0000   100911  1200   100912  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.3N  30.3W   17.1N  32.6W   17.9N  35.1W   19.0N  38.0W
BAMD    16.3N  30.3W   16.9N  33.3W   17.4N  36.4W   18.0N  39.2W
BAMM    16.3N  30.3W   17.1N  33.0W   17.8N  36.0W   18.6N  39.1W
LBAR    16.3N  30.3W   16.9N  33.4W   17.6N  37.0W   18.2N  40.5W
SHIP        35KTS          43KTS          53KTS          63KTS
DSHP        35KTS          43KTS          53KTS          63KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100912  1200   100913  1200   100914  1200   100915  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.1N  41.5W   21.6N  49.4W   20.4N  56.6W   17.0N  60.0W
BAMD    18.5N  42.1W   19.6N  47.1W   20.7N  51.1W   21.5N  53.9W
BAMM    19.2N  42.4W   19.8N  49.2W   18.6N  53.8W   17.7N  53.7W
LBAR    18.6N  44.0W   19.4N  49.7W   19.0N  52.0W   19.8N  53.5W
SHIP        74KTS          90KTS          97KTS         100KTS
DSHP        74KTS          90KTS          97KTS         100KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.3N LONCUR =  30.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  15.3N LONM12 =  27.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  14.2N LONM24 =  24.5W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =   30NM RD34NW =  30NM
 


[x-y-no]

12z GFS out to 120 hours -

Igor at about 19.5N 55W, still moving WNW - the thinnest of tongues of mid-level ridging has been on top for the last day and a half ... keeps moving west in parallel with the storm.

Wide, shallow trough still sitting there ahead ... hard to see how it doesn't recurve but if the ridge keeps on following on top it might not.

[x-y-no]

12z GFS 138 hours -

20N 57W - moving wnw, looks like it's catching up to the western periphery of the mid-level and surface ridging.

[gatorcane]

big west shift with the 12Z GFS.......

finally starting a recurve maybe at 180 hours out but that is so far out who knows if it keeps shifting west?

[KWT]

A reasonable shift west but the 06z was the most easterly run of the last 2 days with Igor so thats not actually saying that much...

General pattern is the same, WNW till about 55-60W then a recurve pattern kicks in....with quite a large weakness present from the looks of things coming towards the E.coast...

IF that clears out fast enough though and the upper ridging builds as the models prog...can't rule out a NE states/SE Canada threat though!...its not too different from Earl to be honest pattern wise.

[cycloneye]

Not a fish as it moves over or west of Bermuda.

[gatorcane]

A reasonable shift west but the 06z was the most easterly run of the last 2 days with Igor so thats not actually saying that much...

General pattern is the same, WNW till about 55-60W then a recurve pattern kicks in....with quite a large weakness present from the looks of things coming towards the E.coast...

IF that clears out fast enough though and the upper ridging builds as the models prog...can't rule out a NE states/SE Canada threat though!...its not too different from Earl to be honest pattern wise.

Looking at the 06Z that is a huge shift west, like 500-800 miles at least........of course I am in the recurve camp but let's see when these west shifts stop. As the ridge breaks down at 180+ hours, it could certainly change, especially if the GFS is breaking the ridge down too quickly in the long-range.