ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Shuriken]

I'm inclined to think development will be fast.

[vbhoutex]

TD by Sunday evening

What makes you think so? Back up your prediction?

[tolakram]

I can't decide if it's less or more organized. Convection forming in bands near what should be an LLC, if it develops. Also notice the outflow boundary from those storms I mentioned earlier is screaming toward the disturbance. Will that help, or hurt?

[KWT]

The convection is still very weak it seems, but Ascat does suggest a weak low is present with this and importantly it does match up with the apperence of the curved bands...but its got a very long way to go yet.

[Vortex]

Convection continues to spread north like several models indicated...

[FogbowBlue]

Do y'all think this will be another Tx/Mx hit? We sure are getting weary....

[dwsqos2]

The usually bullish CMC does nothing with this, not a good sign for genesis.

[Bailey1777]

My prediction for the next 48 hr's......0 percent chance of patience.

[Red Seal]

Anti-cyclone has formed overhead. More defined roll on MIMIC-TPW and therefore a stronger 850mb vorticity.

[Aric Dunn]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 465 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THIS
AREA...AND DATA FROM A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THIS SYSTEM INDICATES THE CIRCULATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 465 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THIS
AREA...AND DATA FROM A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THIS SYSTEM INDICATES THE CIRCULATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Ivanhater]

Yep..structure looks good.

[vbhoutex]

Do y'all think this will be another Tx/Mx hit? We sure are getting weary....

Too early to tell. With the ridging we have had across the South lately I wouldn't be surprised if it stays in the Carribean and or BOC IF it develops into anything. I hope it doesn't develop. My daughter and her husband are cruising to Cozumel starting Monday.

[Aric Dunn]

Just woke up... and it is still becoming better organized pretty quickly from last night.

[Vortex]

agree

[KWT]

It does look like the circulation is better defined which explains the increase to 50% for sure, but the models on the otherhand seem to be jumping ship right now, even the CMC which is known to really develop system doesn't get it past the wave stage this run.

[tolakram]

50%, interesting. Stewart

Here's what I see.



I don't think the system is more north, but pretty much where it was yesterday. The bands are starting to form below my center estimate, but outflow noted by the red curve is going to hit this area edit: around 10pm ... if I judge the timing right. I think we'll see convection wiped away this evening and have it pick back up again tomorrow morning. This is the graveyard, and the disturbance is still close to SA, so I really don't see this developing very rapidly.

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[Ivanhater]

KWT, I made the original thread on this system a few days back and only had model support from the Euro and Nogaps. The Canadian only recently started developing it. Euro actually came in much stronger last night compared to its 12z run yesterday.

[blazess556]

i honestly couldn't care less whether or not the cmc has it. the euro was more bullish on it last night.

[KWT]

Yeah I'm not going to discount it because of that but you've gotta admit its interesting when two models that previously develop it once again flip back...reminds me of a certain G storm we've just had and the ECM didn't clock onto the weaker solution till all others had moved.

We'll see it maybe the GFS/CMC missing the plot this time.

Either way its looking better right now for sure and models don't always do well with developing systems.