ATL: KARL - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

Same reason another has 92L doing the dosey doe! LOL

[Ivanhater]

Canadian makes sense at least It feels the weakness and shoots north then responds to a building ridge.

No ridging in the Gulf for 2 days and the Euro sends a hurricane due west

[Ivanhater]

Ukie still on it

[KWT]

Canadian makes sense at least It feels the weakness and shoots north then responds to a building ridge.

No ridging in the Gulf for 2 days and the Euro sends a hurricane due west

Looks to me the CMC has increasing interaction with Igor on this run, to the extent where it shunts the system WSW when there isn't the sort of upper blocking to produce such a strong WSW thrust for that long, so not sure if this run can be trusted at all, whilst the background synoptics look ok it requires both Igor to get much further west then other models prog and for this one to get further north then the other models...seems unlikely.

CMC reminds me of Inez from 1966 actually a little.

GFS has really backed off from development, it weas the first to clock the fact Gaston wouldn't reform so this needs to be watched, but for now most other models do develop it at some point.

[perk]

ridge gone

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP192.gif

That's a bad combination,a strenghtening storm and the ridge weakening over the gulf.

[perk]

I'd like to know how the Euro shoots this due west into Mexico with no ridging in the Gulf and rapidly lowering pressures over Texas.

Ivan i'm trying to get my head around that one too.

[KWT]

...DON'T look at the pressures...look at the heights...you'll see the heights build back in across the S.Gulf states between 192-240hrs and that is what shunts the system back west, it doesn't matter too much if the pressure is lowering or not, its the heights that usually dictate what happens.

Ok firstly here is 192hrs:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... yNA192.gif

Notice the blues over the S.Gulf states showing slightly below average heights, and a slight upper high over SW Texas/Mexico...that is the sort of profile that would likely lead to WNW/NW motion and is what you'd not want to see if you lived in Texas/LA...

Now look at 240hrs, and notice the difference:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... yNA240.gif

Upper High is *much* stronger and we have above average heights all over the states...and whats the end result of that...yep you got it, westerly motion kicks back in...

[cycloneye]

Watch out Miami!!! if GFDL is right.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 101248
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1248 UTC FRI SEP 10 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100910 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100910  1200   100911  0000   100911  1200   100912  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N  60.2W   13.5N  61.5W   14.0N  63.0W   14.7N  64.6W
BAMD    12.8N  60.2W   13.3N  62.0W   13.9N  64.1W   14.4N  66.3W
BAMM    12.8N  60.2W   13.4N  61.7W   13.9N  63.6W   14.5N  65.6W
LBAR    12.8N  60.2W   13.5N  61.6W   14.3N  63.4W   15.1N  65.4W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          49KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100912  1200   100913  1200   100914  1200   100915  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.1N  66.5W   16.0N  70.6W   16.8N  74.9W   17.6N  79.7W
BAMD    14.9N  68.7W   15.8N  73.4W   16.9N  78.0W   17.8N  83.3W
BAMM    15.0N  67.9W   15.9N  72.5W   17.0N  77.3W   18.0N  82.7W
LBAR    16.0N  67.6W   17.5N  72.5W   19.6N  76.6W   21.4N  79.9W
SHIP        63KTS          79KTS          86KTS          98KTS
DSHP        63KTS          79KTS          86KTS          98KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.8N LONCUR =  60.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  12.4N LONM12 =  59.0W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  12.0N LONM24 =  57.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[ROCK]

split camps....as the tvcn splits the models....right down the gut...

[caneman]

A Little bit concerning that 3 of the top models have it bending towards Florida and then the Gulf.

[barometerJane61]

Considering the BAMMs take it extreme west,I think the other models are more sensible

[cycloneye]

The 12z NAM get rid of the Puerto Rico landfall.

[ronjon]

Latest model plots:

[SFLcane]

Here's another look at the 12z model lots for 92L...

[jlauderdal]

Here's another look at the 12z model lots for 92L...

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical ... 091012.png

hispanola and eastern cuba shredder

[HouTXmetro]

I just don't see much going on, perhaps the models will lose it again.

[x-y-no]

12z GFS still loses it inside of 3 days.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS still loses it inside of 3 days.

Make it 5.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian drops it