What is the future of this season?

[ConvergenceZone]

True but they do mention ACE and usually that is whats used offically to define a normal/above/below and a hyperactive season usually, though really its a combo of all those factors.

I agree. If ACE is what they go by, then they should just do away with
the number storm forecasts, since the number of storms a year doesn't seem
to mean much anyway(using 2010 as an example). Just stick with ACE
and then their predictions will probably be more accurate.

[Steve]

>>I agree. If ACE is what they go by, then they should just do away with
the number storm forecasts, since the number of storms a year doesn't seem
to mean much anyway(using 2010 as an example). Just stick with ACE
and then their predictions will probably be more accurate.

This doesn't make sense at all. Would you want your local weatherman to say it's going to be cloudy but forget to tell you it was going to rain or that it would be sunny but not give you a temperature? This isn't a game. It's science. You can go by whatever you want. But if you read any of the seasonal forecasts, they almost all utilize number of named storms, ace, some type of landfall prediction scheme, etc. Come on man.

[ConvergenceZone]

>>I agree. If ACE is what they go by, then they should just do away with
the number storm forecasts, since the number of storms a year doesn't seem
to mean much anyway(using 2010 as an example). Just stick with ACE
and then their predictions will probably be more accurate.

This doesn't make sense at all. Would you want your local weatherman to say it's going to be cloudy but forget to tell you it was going to rain or that it would be sunny but not give you a temperature? This isn't a game. It's science. You can go by whatever you want. But if you read any of the seasonal forecasts, they almost all utilize number of named storms, ace, some type of landfall prediction scheme, etc. Come on man.

I'm just saying, if they want to just called this a super hyperactive year based on ACE alone,
and say the ACE was high but we only got 10 to 12 storms... Would that mean that the NHC would
consider the year a "hit" because we had a super hyperactive season because of the ACE alone?

[Steve]

>>I'm just saying, if they want to just called this a super hyperactive year based on ACE alone,
and say the ACE was high but we only got 10 to 12 storms... Would that mean that the NHC would
consider the year a "hit" because we had a super hyperactive season because of the ACE alone?

Maybe not super-hyperactive. But what if we got ACE > 200? And I'm not sure how they score all that but say it was from 6 Category 5's and that's all they had that year or whatever. Was that not extreme? ACE measures cumulative power. Just using this for giggles, but say you have a year with 6 Category 5's and then another year with 16 40mph Tropical Storms. Which was more extreme or hyperactive in your opinion? Again, it's part of the equation, but KWT keeps more up on that stuff than I do. I'm sure he's got a quick reference.

[SoupBone]

>>I'm just saying, if they want to just called this a super hyperactive year based on ACE alone,
and say the ACE was high but we only got 10 to 12 storms... Would that mean that the NHC would
consider the year a "hit" because we had a super hyperactive season because of the ACE alone?

Maybe not super-hyperactive. But what if we got ACE > 200? And I'm not sure how they score all that but say it was from 6 Category 5's and that's all they had that year or whatever. Was that not extreme? ACE measures cumulative power. Just using this for giggles, but say you have a year with 6 Category 5's and then another year with 16 40mph Tropical Storms. Which was more extreme or hyperactive in your opinion? Again, it's part of the equation, but KWT keeps more up on that stuff than I do. I'm sure he's got a quick reference.

Steve this has been discussed before. Weather enthusiasts, Pro Mets, etc. here on this board understand what you are saying but we are not talking about us. Public perception is everything and if you try and justify 5 Cat 5's (especially if they are fish) as being a hyperactive season to the public you will be laughed at. I am not saying it's right but perception is everything to people who don't really understand the science behind this.

[Steve]

I hear you Soup. And that's always valid. But at some point the information (IMHO of course) outweighs what someone wants to do with it. If people are going to be ignorant (intentionally or not) and not heed warnings because someone's seasonal forecast was too high or whatever, that's on them. Think about it - if NOAA predicted there would be 20 storms and the only one is Hurricane Andrew, and I'm in Homestead with a Cat 4 (later upgraded) bearing down on me, I'm going to get out regardless of whether or not the seasonal forecast was right. Now at the same time, if the public decides they don't trust my seasonal forecasts because I said "20" but there was only "1" then I can't really blame them. But it still shouldn't have anything to do with reaction to an actual threat.

As for complacency, New Orleans was the king of that. We woke up in 1992 after we saw what happened to Homestead and what might lay in store for us. Same thing happened in 1998 (Georges), 2004 (Ivan) and 2005 (Dennis & Katrina). The evacuation rates, particularly for Ivan, Georges and Katrina, were amazing for what I would have expected. So I think it comes down to what are you going to do and are you prepared for that threat once it's on your doorstep. Based on plenty I've read here, the Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater area seems to be one of the biggest metros that has almost no experience with recent systems (last big hit in the 1920's if I remember) along with a majority population transplanted from elsewhere. It's up to the powers that be to try to influence people to make threat-appropriate decisions. And I think our local NWS forecast offices in conjunction with the TPC and HPC do a great job getting that info to the public.

[KWT]

Despite what I said about this being a 12-13NS type season there is still in theory time for a 16NS type season if things do really explode like the ECM long range expects...

Probably will see a hyperactive season in terms of ACE still, I was onboard with a 160-200 type season and I think despite probably lower NS September will probably provide a large ramp-up to the ACE....

We've not nearly caught up with 2008 again and thus a +16NS season is once again well within reach...

Amazing to see what can happen when the CV season kicks in, a pretty obvious La Nina type season and just as was expected the season exploded into life on the 20th August, just like 80% of La Nina seasons do.

As for the ACE...IF the CV train carries on producing storms in the next 10-15 days then we probably will have a real shot at a top 10 ACE position of all time by the time the season is out....though I'll stick with 160-200 units for now which would put us I believe near if not in the top 10 since 1950.

Either way hyperactive season is looking a good call now...

[Steve]

>>We've not nearly caught up with 2008 again and thus a +16NS season is once again well within reach...

We're up to 7 on the 3rd day of September. With 87 or so days left in the season, we'd need about 8 or 9 more to hit hyperactive by number. That averages out to a be about 1 named storm every 10 days. It's not that out of the question anymore. We're just going to have to wait to find out how busy of a September, October and November we have left. I could see us up around 11 or 12 by the end of the month (would require 4 or 5 named storms). Then 4 or 5 all of October and November would bring us to 15-17. Again, not my prediction, but not out of the question. I wonder if StormCenters agrees?

[cycloneye]

Is September 10th,the climatological peak day of the season. I think the season is looking good to be hyperactive both in the ACE units and also in the numbers. In terms of the ACE, already the Atlantic is way ahead of the Eastern Pacific and more llamative ahead from the Western Pacific with 64 units. Is not far fetched to think that 150 units (Number that starts the hyperactivity) can be reached. In terms of the numbers, presently 2010 has 9/3/2,already tied with the 2009 totals.I see this season ending with between 15-17 named storms,not far from what the experts had in their preseasonal forecasts. That is how I see the season in it's future.

[KWT]

I suspect from the 15th September we are going to see several threats to the Caribbean and US...the pattern may well shift away from the constant troughing with the mean high almost where the mean throughing has been looking at the models...

That'd open up the east coast for some CV activity and then as the CV region shuts down by late September/early October if the pattern were to hold it would suggest a much heightened threat to the C/E Gulf as well as the Caribbean of course.

Season overall in terms of tracks seem to be following 1995 with early systems close to home, then a whole glut of CV storms recurving before the focus shifts back closer to land again in late September and early October.

I still expect 160-200 units of ACE, nothing in the forecasts suggests this isn't a reachable figure esp if Igor becomes another long lasting major hurricane.

[dwsqos2]

My problems with the hyperactive ACE forecasts is that all of the long-lived storms have struggled for a few days and weakened quickly in the higher latitudes. Danielle became extratropical at a relavtively low-latitude. All these things limit the potential for ACE generation. So, it may be difficult to reach or exceed 175% of the long-term median seasonal ACE this year.

For ACE production, I don't like what the GFS does with the wave following Igor. That kind of track, along with the projectied 200 mb winds likely wouldn't produce a terribly strong storm. The ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC suggest a track that would produce a stronger storm, so my concerns may be baseless. Also, there's quite a bit of season left; however, I think meeting the definition of hyperactive is not guaranteed. Keep in mind 140 units is not hyperactive; 2008 despite producing five major hurricanes was not hyperactive by definition as seasonal ACE was ~144.

[KWT]

Oh yeah thats true dwsqos2, its not a certainty by any means but these CV seasons which this one clearly is tend to more often then not reach at least 135 and most go on to be hyperactive when conditions are as favourable as they now clearly are.

Igor looks to me to be a 35-45 type system given its slow motion which if we take the lower figure would put us near 100. I'd imagine there will likely be another 2, maybe 3 systems after that from the CV region so if we assume they average 15 each for now, then thats upto 130-145 and a major in the Caribbean in October/November is nearly odds on in this type of season (something like 80% chance) which would likely be enough to push us into the hyperactive bracket...and thats without any other TS/hurricanes that could develop out there and chip in another 5-15 units.

[ColinDelia]

"Tropical Storm Karl's formation yesterday marked the fifth earliest date that an eleventh named storm of the season has formed. The only years more active this early in the season were 2005, 1995, 1936 and 1933. " - Jeff Masters

[Steve]

>>"Tropical Storm Karl's formation yesterday marked the fifth earliest date that an eleventh named storm of the season has formed. The only years more active this early in the season were 2005, 1995, 1936 and 1933. " - Jeff Masters

hahaha. Unfortunately it wasn't early enough to shut up the ADHD posters and therefore save me a lot minutes of life I won't get back arguing the baselessness of their points. Btw, has anyone seen Stormcenters lately?

[Weatherfreak000]

>>I agree. If ACE is what they go by, then they should just do away with
the number storm forecasts, since the number of storms a year doesn't seem
to mean much anyway(using 2010 as an example). Just stick with ACE
and then their predictions will probably be more accurate.

This doesn't make sense at all. Would you want your local weatherman to say it's going to be cloudy but forget to tell you it was going to rain or that it would be sunny but not give you a temperature? This isn't a game. It's science. You can go by whatever you want. But if you read any of the seasonal forecasts, they almost all utilize number of named storms, ace, some type of landfall prediction scheme, etc. Come on man.

I'm just saying, if they want to just called this a super hyperactive year based on ACE alone,
and say the ACE was high but we only got 10 to 12 storms... Would that mean that the NHC would
consider the year a "hit" because we had a super hyperactive season because of the ACE alone?

The term ACE is not exactly something a local met has the patience explaining to the masses at 5. I can't count on both hands the amount of people I know on a personal, not academic level that knows what the term ACE means, or how to calculate it. Honestly i'm not even getting into the importance of the numbers...that's a discussion in and of itself. I just think it's clear both terms have equal importance in making a seasonal forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

Its as simple as this... with the GFS and all long range models showing at least 2 more TC in the next week... this season will put all seasonal forecasts well within their respective margins of error and exceeding in some others. Phil and Gray were fairly clear the beginning of the season would probably be slow since there would be a lag in the La-Nina Conditions. The later half of the season is only looking better for development and seeing a 1995 season is completely possible.

[Aric Dunn]

Hell we have had 8 TC in the last 3 weeks.. lol if the next three weeks are even half that we will make it to 15 TC. the likely hood of having at least 5 more TC is rather high...

[bvigal]

Is September 10th,the climatological peak day of the season. I think the season is looking good to be hyperactive both in the ACE units and also in the numbers. In terms of the ACE, already the Atlantic is way ahead of the Eastern Pacific and more llamative ahead from the Western Pacific with 64 units. Is not far fetched to think that 150 units (Number that starts the hyperactivity) can be reached. In terms of the numbers, presently 2010 has 9/3/2,already tied with the 2009 totals.I see this season ending with between 15-17 named storms,not far from what the experts had in their preseasonal forecasts. That is how I see the season in it's future.

I agree! And look what we have now, Luis, only 8 days later, if Karl becomes a hurricane: 11/6/4 (or maybe 5 - if Karl makes 3?)

[tolakram]

For what it's worth, the 2005 season, as of August 22, would have been on Jose. So that season is 7 storms ahead already. I think it is interesting, as I posted in another topic, that the Weather Research Center in Houston only called for 8 storms this year thanks to solar activity. See their press release below. I think we'll be hard pressed to see anything close to 18 storms or more. Just my opinion...

http://www.wxresearch.org/press/2010huroutlook.pdf

Ok!

Sorry, my evil streak.

Only fair if I quote myself as well.

Aug 11th

In two weeks August will just about be over....I don't see anything that is going to spin up in the next few days. There are still ULL across the Atlantic so upper level conditions are mostly hostile across the basin...looks to me like an El Nino instead of La Nina. Things had better get cooking in a hurry or big time bust in the forecast numbers.....MGC

Forget the forecast numbers, they are silly to begin with, numbers is all about luck anyway. I start to get genuinely curious on the 20th and start to really wonder what was missed if we get to the end of the month without anything big.

Ouch

Aug 18th:

Ok I've been carefully studying everything and I've come to the conclusion...

The season will bust at least from a numbers point of view...there is no way we get even close to 18NS with the current set-up aloft. Its a little better but its nothing too impressive and the MJO isn't even going to become favourable, all the focus is on the phase 3-4 which isn't really going to do the Atlantic any good bar maybe Africa and the far E.atlantic.

Now that is not to say we won't get a biggie threaten land over the next two months, and I'd still bank on a big October storm BUT I've now given up on this season producing even 15NS yet alone 17-20NS the agencies were calling for.

What I see is nothing that screams a hyper period is coming up, will probably roll along close to climo for the rest of the season, so maybe 12-13NS. Pretty much we are stuck in a rut that shows NO sign of changing and if its not produced the goods so far, its probably not going to do much good down the line either.

So my call for the rest of the season now is....

10-5-3

which would lead to 13-6-3 overall...we will see what happens but I see a rather massive bust coming for all the agencies...ACE probably will come in still decently above average though due to a couple of long tracking hurricanes.

Note, even forecasting 10NS might be a little on the agressive side but we will see!

How about gatorcane, who has taken a significant amount of abuse when he dares to downcast a system:

Aug 15th

The way it looks at this moment could be the season of many strong cv systems that recurve. That would be nice!

Really thinking the Caribbean will breed a few significant systems that will threaten land areas....especially late sept and october.

I'll end with

Aug 12th

A lot of forecasters are really banking on a ramp up starting August 20th. The Atlantic would literally have to turn on like a light switch in order to meet their expectations. It's already August 12th, we're very close to the heart of the season and there is nothing on the horizon. I wonder what excuse the forecasters will have when it's August 20-25th and everything is as still as the night.

[KWT]

That was deffo a huge bust from me but I did quickly swing back from that point of view!

I'll make another prediction now though and say we will get a 4/5 in the Caribbean in the next 4-6 weeks...I'd almost put money on that occuring infact!

The funny thing is that post was just at the start of the hyperactive period hehe!

ps, at least I kept the call for a very high ACE, on the 21st I said I was still onboard with 160-200 ACE...I still think thats going to be the range we fall into as well...