ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[ColinDelia]

About 6 square degrees of 50 units of 850 mb vorticity now. A bullish sign

[Bailey1777]

colin, can you post vort. graph?
thanks darren

[Vortex]

Winds shift to SSW at Barbados 5pm. Center passing to the NW.



Grantley Adams, Barbados (Airport)
Updated: 5:00 PM AST on September 10, 2010
81 °F
Light Rain Showers
Humidity: 82%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 18 mph from the SSW
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.80 in

[MGC]

Convection needs to consolidate near the center a bit more....I also think it will take a few more days for it to ramp up....maybe when it gets south of Hispanolia.....MGC

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[Vortex]

some convection trying to fire right over center....

[Aric Dunn]

The center is over or very near St Vincent. At about 13N 61W and shows up well on radar and can be seen on satellite .. It is still a broad and the whole thing needs convection but its continues to organize.

[KWT]

It looks like a solid gyre to me and whilst those nearly always take time to ramp up I'd imagine it will end up developing, maybe looking at 48-72hrs still though for it to really get going.

[wxman57]

colin, can you post vort. graph?
thanks darren

It's here:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/#

Just click the appropriate "I" and add the "Vort" layer.

[Aquawind]

Consolidation and persistance come to mind looking at this mess..but the rotation and location are improving..It has plenty of time to be the next name on the list.

[ColinDelia]

colin, can you post vort. graph?
thanks darren

Bailey,

Incidentally here are a few papers on vorticity based detection of tropical cyclones/cyclogenesis if you are interested.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/people/obrien/01-7.pdf
http://helmholtz.met.fsu.edu/JAMArticle2.pdf

Just keep in mind the units they use in the papers are off by the ones in the map mentioned by wxman57 by a factor of 10.
a "5" in the papers is a "50" on the map

[KWT]

Consolidation and persistance come to mind looking at this mess..but the rotation and location are improving..It has plenty of time to be the next name on the list.

Yeah its slowly trying to get better organised but probably has several cycles of poofing then bursting to go before it gets going I suspect.

Interesting to see what models are right, interestingly also most don't really do much in the Caribbean at all now.

[Aquawind]

Consolidation and persistance come to mind looking at this mess..but the rotation and location are improving..It has plenty of time to be the next name on the list.

Yeah its slowly trying to get better organised but probably has several cycles of poofing then bursting to go before it gets going I suspect.

Interesting to see what models are right, interestingly also most don't really do much in the Caribbean at all now.

It's fighting the same massive dry air blob Gaston did..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Heck even some SAL sign to the north..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... litEW&time

Looks like post 75W things could improve..

[Bailey1777]

colin, intresting reading thank you very much.
darren

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 620 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...
DATA FROM ANOTHER NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MUSHER/KIMBERLAIN

[Bailey1777]

is it just an illusion of all the scattered storms in the area or is this going to be a large storm if it gets going?

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 92, 2010091100, , BEST, 0, 134N, 611W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[gatorcane]

Well it's hanging in there. Could be some development as it nears the western Caribbean....I'm thinking it passes south of Florida. Should it develop looks like a yucatan boc then Mexico issue though the western gom should stay alert