Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

be careful down there!

Gusty, I just sent you a PM

Thanks Barbara i have received yours, i sent you PM too
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
333 PM AST THU SEP 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST TO
WEST TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN THERE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND WILL WEAKEN AT TIMES...AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAY GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST AND MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS WITH
SLOWLY ORGANIZING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
TPC/NHC CURRENTLY GIVES THIS SYSTEM A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS AND NHC
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE HAVE SEVERAL POSSIBLE TRACK AND
INTENSITY SCENARIOS AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THIS POINT...WE EXPECT
AT LEAST A SURGE OF MOISTURE TO LIFT WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FA
AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING. DUE TO THE
"DEVELOPING" NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND SCENARIO...THERE IS A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND EVEN MONDAY. THEREFORE... ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH 09/22Z OR 23Z.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 3
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DEPENDING UPON SYSTEM OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall Data
Thu Sep 09 2010

Piarco Airport, C. Trinidad 31.3C 88F 92.8mm
Couva, C. Trinidad 30.8C 87F 10.2mm
Maraval, W. Trinidad 27.9C 82F 3.3mm
Crown Point, Tobago 27.9C 82F 32.0mm

Point Salines, Grenada 26.6C 80F 23.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 27.0C 81F 60.1mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 27.4C 81F 65.8mm
Long Bay, SE Barbados 27.2C 81F 42.7mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.2C 85F 28.8mm

Hewannora, St Lucia 30.4C 86F 28.1mm
Vigie, St Lucia 31.3C 88F 9.8mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 32.2C 90F 0.1mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 31.4C 88F 10.6mm

Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.9C 90F 9.4mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 28.4C 83F 10.0mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.7C 87F
VC Bird, Antigua 30.6C 87F 2.7mm
Juliana Airport, St Maarten 31.7C 89F 0.5mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.6C 87F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 32.3C 90F
Kingston, Jamaica 31.9C 90F 18.7mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 32.9C 91F 0.3mm
Havana, Cuba 33.3C 92F

Nassau, Bahamas 32.3C 90F 37.2mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 29.7C 86F 25.8mm

Hato, Curacao 30.9C 88F 18.5mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 30.9C 88F 3.6mm
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 31.6C 89F

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 PM AST THU SEP 9 2010

.UPDATE...SHOWERS REMAIN PEPPERED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND WERE COMING
ONSHORE OCCASIONALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND IN
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE 00Z SOUNDING CAME IN DRIER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH A SLIGHT CAP AT 900 MB. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WAS BELOW
50 PERCENT ABOVE 740 MB AND DID NOT RETURN. MOST TOPS ARE BELOW 17
THOUSAND FEET WITHIN 50 MILES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MADE FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS...MAINLY TO RAISE
POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AS SOME MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COME NEAR ON
THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. SOME POPS WERE LOWERED TO ACCOUNT FOR
OVERNIGHT RAIN SHADOWS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. 18Z
MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENT TRACKS FOR IGOR AND A MORE WESTWARD
MOVEMENT FOR THE LOW NOW SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THESE SOLUTIONS IS LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUNS...EXCEPT
THAT THE NAM IS NO LONGER AS EXTREME IN THE POSITION AND INTENSITY
OF THE LOW IT FORMS TO OUR EAST SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT THRU
10/16Z...WITH A -SHRA OR VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TISX...AND
TIST. AF 10/16Z...EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SW PR...RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS
TJMZ AND TJPS FROM 10/17Z-10/22Z IN A SHRA OR TSRA...ALONG WITH
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PR. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED ALL OTHER TAF SITES TOMORROW.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

FXCA62 TJSJ 100843
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 AM AST FRI SEP 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL EAST ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION. BROAD SURFACE TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EAST CARIBBEAN
BASIN...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN
EARLY SATURDAY...THEN MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL HELP CREATE A NORTHWARD MODULATION OF ITCZ MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY SATURDAY AND AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST NEAR 13 MPH
ACROSS THE OPEN EAST TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND BASED ON THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER... THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. IN ADDITION...SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND IGOR COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST BULLETINS/UPDATE FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION ON FORECAST AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS STILL ABOUT A WEEK OR SO AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA...AND THUS THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED PATCHES OF SHALLOW TRADE WIND MOISTURE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. SOME SHOWERS WERE
OCCASIONALLY BRUSHED THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER MOST OF THEM WERE BRIEF AND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY.
EARLIER TJSJ 10/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING... AS WELL AS MIMIC TPW ANALYSIS
PRODUCE SHOWED LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.70
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...
EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND TERRAIN EFFECTS TO BE THE MAJOR
PLAYER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN ISOLATED AREAS...
BUT MAINLY ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY.

OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE IS
FORECAST TO LIFT SUFFICIENT ITCZ MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AT
LEAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL THEREFORE INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER EXPECTED THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE FIELD TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS....A SLOT OF DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE TO
FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR WHICH IS STILL FORECAST TO
REINTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER EXPECT
THE AVAILABLE TRADE WIND MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO AID IN
MOSTLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT THRU 10/16Z...WITH A -SHRA OR VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJSJ...TISX...AND TIST. AFTER 10/16Z...EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
PR...RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS FROM
10/17Z-10/22Z IN A SHRA OR TSRA...ALONG WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO. VFR CONDS EXPECTED
ALL OTHER TAF SITES TODAY.

[FireBird]

Hi folks, another grey day down here. I could smell the rain in the air - though it's calm at the moment. Like everyone else, I'm playing the waiting game on 92L. I think once this little low passes us, we'll see development. Its path - no one knows (which adds to anxiety I guess). So we all keep a watchful eye.
We just finished building this huge structure (?) to keep water out the yard, and now we can;t get our cars past! Aaagghh! So on today - a holiday here in T&T - we'll be building some ramps. Oh the joys of rain!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST FRI SEP 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND NORTH OF THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING CARIBBEAN WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEA BREEZES DEVELOPED ALONG THE PR COASTS AND
COMBINED WITH LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
OCCURRED ALONG THE RIO CULEBRINAS BASIN AND ACROSS HORMIGUEROS AND
SAN GERMAN. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS AND LINGER DURING EVENING HOURS.

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SURGE OF 15-25 KT WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE SOUTH
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS OUTWARD TOWARD THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

IGOR REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST NEAR 16 MPH. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST
BULLETINS/UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE FORECAST AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS
STILL ABOUT A WEEK OR SO AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...AND THUS THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST...
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING NEAR
TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJPS...THROUGH ABOUT 10/22Z IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL
BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO TKPK AND
POSSIBLY TNCM THROUGH TONIGHT...IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SURFACE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5
FEET WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall
for Fri Sep 10 2010

Piarco Airport, C. Trinidad 32.3C 90F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.9C 86F 17.8mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.0C 88F 0.6mm

Point Salines, Grenada 31.1C 88F 2.6mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.7C 87F 11.5mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.0C 85F 9.0mm
Rockley, S Barbados 30.2C 86F 21.1mm
Long Bay, SE Barbados 31.4C 88F 9.7mm

Hewannora, St Lucia 30.2C 86F 25.3mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 29.1C 85F 46.2mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 28.5C 84F 7.0mm


Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.2C 88F
VC Bird, Antigua 30.9C 88F 7.4mm
Juliana Airport, St Maarten 31.4C 88F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.1C 88F 5.0mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 31.8C 89F 33.0mm
Kingston, Jamaica 33.0C 91F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 32.3C 90F trace
Havana, Cuba 32.2C 90F 0.2mm

Nassau, Bahamas 33.4C 92F 4.0mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 27.3C 81F 16.0mm

Hato Airport, Curacao 31.3C 88F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 32.7C 91F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 32.7C 91F

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST NORTHWEST
OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AT
LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ISSUE ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM IGOR...NOW LOCATED ABOUT 725
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IGOR CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WITH A PRESENT
MOVEMENT WEST NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH...HOWEVER A TURN TO THE WEST AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE REFER TO LATEST BULLETINS/UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FORECAST AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS STILL SOME WAYS AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...AND THUS THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT MODERATE AMOUNTS OF ITCZ/TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CARIBBEAN AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE ALONG
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TODAY TO INDUCE AND
ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAY
LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS QUICK RISES
IN THE WATER LEVELS OF RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS. MUDSLIDES
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN AS SOIL REMAINS
SATURATED IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX AND TJSJ OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AFTER 11/15Z...INDUCING SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK OF 5-8KFT WITH A
VCSH OR VCTS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...WITH
TEMPORARY MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED IN A PASSING SHRA
OR TSRA ALONG WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THEREFORE
...PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS LOCAL PASSAGES.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[bvigal]

Good morning, neighbors! Gusty, did you stay dry and warm indoors through all that rain? Looks like it will continue over the EC and more flooding is possible. Puerto Rico, in particular, really doesn't need any more rain, right Luis?

Would love to hear from Firebird, Abajan, chrisstlucia, expat2carib, caribsue, and others in Windwards a report of accumulated effects of 92L where they are.

For ALL in the Leewards, please keep an eye on Igor (LOL, like that even needs saying). Graphic made this morning to compare Earl/Igor, explained in detail discussion.

[Gustywind]

Good morning, neighbors! Gusty, did you stay dry and warm indoors through all that rain? Looks like it will continue over the EC and more flooding is possible. Puerto Rico, in particular, really doesn't need any more rain, right Luis?

Would love to hear from Firebird, Abajan, chrisstlucia, expat2carib, caribsue, and others in Windwards a report of accumulated effects of 92L where they are.

For ALL in the Leewards, please keep an eye on Igor (LOL, like that even needs saying). Graphic made this morning to compare Earl/Igor, explained in detail discussion.

Hello my BVIGAL glad to see you once again here! I like the way you discuss the weather with hapiness joy without any doubts you're a caribbean islander ! You have warm kisses from the Leewards especially Guadeloupe! Guadeloupe and Martiniqua are always under an yellow alert. I'm dry and safe BVIGAL. Not too much rain this morning even if we have had nice episode of strong showers without hopefully thunder and gusts. Weather is grey and sad pretty uncertain too. Given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe conditions should improve steadily even sooner than predicted so that could be the good news . A return in green code (meaning no danger) could be up this afternoon if the improvement verifies.
Hope that our friends from the Windwards are ok too. We should continue to keep a close eye on Igor looks like a more westward bound anticipated not far from the north of St Marteen and St Barth meanwhile Igor shoud be a cat 3 cane given the latest 5AM weather predictions of the NHC... Let's wait and see.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Should i add that 93L is up near Africa, busy busy next week on tape...
Go on viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109364&hilit=

[Gustywind]

From Crown Weather http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Saturday, September 11, 2010 905 am EDT/805 am CDT

Tropical Storm Igor:
For Information About Tropical Storm Igor with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3068 .

Igor continues to strengthen this morning and has been displaying an occasional eye like feature. Satellite estimates indicate that this is almost a hurricane and I suspect that this will likely become a hurricane sometime today. Environmental conditions are favorable for Igor to continue to intensify and it is expected to become a major hurricane by about Tuesday. It should be noted that the global models indicate that Igor could become a large hurricane in its overall size.

Igor is tracking due west at a forward speed of 20 mph this morning. The storm is being steered by a building ridge of high pressure over the eastern Atlantic and this high pressure ridge is expected to hold in place for the next few days. So, Igor is expected to track westward through this weekend into early next week. By about Tuesday, Igor will be reaching the southwest side of that high pressure ridge and will also be approaching a broad trough of low pressure over the western Atlantic. This will cause Igor to slow down in forward speed and turn to the west-northwest and perhaps northwest.

Looking at the very long range guidance, both the latest European and GFS models forecast that Igor will turn northward around 60 West Longitude as we head into next weekend. The ensemble mean of the European model suggests a much slower track and suggests that the trough may end up leaving Igor behind somewhere around 35 North Latitude, 65 West Longitude in about 10 days from now. The Canadian model suggests a completely different solution and forecasts a much more progressive and weaker trough of low pressure and that the ridge of high pressure will steer Igor very close to the US East coast in about 10 days from now.

Nothing is guaranteed right now in the forecast track of Igor. Model guidance like the GFS model notoriously turn hurricanes out to sea too quickly and also during this time of year, we tend to see large high pressure systems track off of the US East coast blocking hurricanes from turning out into the open Atlantic. Is the Canadian model sniffing something out in its forecast?? It’s just too far out in time to tell for sure. Bottom line is that Igor is expected to become a very large and very intense hurricane and we will have to keep a very close eye on it.

Eastern Caribbean Tropical Disturbance (Invest 92-L):
A broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean is showing signs of further organization this morning as showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have increased. Environmental conditions are favorable for development and this could become our next tropical depression and perhaps our next named storm, Julia.

Model guidance has been very wishy-washy on whether this will develop. The GFS model continues to say no on development while model guidance like the European model forecasts this to start to develop in earnest by early next week as it tracks to the west of Jamaica. Other models like the Canadian and NOGAPS models side with the GFS model on saying no to development. So, while I am seeing sure signs of development this morning, I still want to be conservative in my forecast on this system.

Now, the track models from NHC forecast a general west-northwest track over the next several days with the consensus models forecasting a track over Jamaica on Tuesday and then near the Cayman Islands on Wednesday and towards the Yucatan Peninsula later next week. The SHIPS and LGEM intensity models forecast significant intensification with it becoming a hurricane by Monday. The GFDL model forecasts a westward track that takes it south of Jamaica on Monday night and forecasts significant intensification when its between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula around the middle of next week striking the Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane Wednesday night or Thursday. The HWRF model on the other hand forecasts a northwest track that takes it over Hispaniola which virtually destroys this system.

So, at this point, I think slow, but steady development may be the way to go for Invest 92-L and I do suspect that we will see this become a tropical depression sometime this weekend and become Tropical Storm Julia probably on Monday or so. A track towards the west-northwest seems most likely with this system potentially tracking close to Jamaica on Monday night or Tuesday morning as a tropical storm and then near the Cayman Islands later Tuesday as a tropical storm and then a potential landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula as a hurricane on Thursday.

All interests in the Caribbean, including Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor this system.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued sometime on Sunday.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

[cycloneye]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...NAGUABO...GUAYNABO...CANOVANAS...
CAROLINA...CATANO...SAN JUAN...LOIZA...RIO GRANDE AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 1130 AM AST

* AT 835 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAD FALLEN ACROSS
SECTIONS OF CAROLINA...SAN JUAN AND TRUJILLO ALTO. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING RAPID RISES IN SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

[msbee]

We should continue to keep a close eye on Igor looks like a more westward bound anticipated not far from the north of St Marteen and St Barth meanwhile Igor shoud be a cat 3 cane given the latest 5AM weather predictions of the NHC... Let's wait and see.
Gustywind

Hi Gusty
do you think Igor is going to come that close to us?

Lusi and bvigal, what do you two think?

[cycloneye]

Barbara,Igor will be a big hurricane in intensity and in size.Because of that even if it tracks to the NE,we have to watch it.