ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[ColinDelia]

Some dry air NW of Igor. The top picture is about 6 hours old. The bottom is new.

[alan1961]

Yes Colin, dry air close by.

[Crostorm]

[wzrgirl1]

That view it seems like a fairly formidable system.

[expat2carib]

Almost a straight line due west.

[jlauderdal]

Almost a straight line due west.

is that surprise, its riding under a ridge and will turn once it gets to the edge of said ridge, very straightforward forecast

[OURAGAN]

It remembers me Luis in 1995, moving straight west along 17N before recurving and devastating st Marteen in the north leewards islands

[OURAGAN]

Leewards islands, whatch out just in case it does not recurve like the models say.

[expat2carib]

Almost a straight line due west.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif

is that surprise, its riding under a ridge and will turn once it gets to the edge of said ridge, very straightforward forecast

I'm waiting for the turn soon otherwise it looks bad for the northern Leewards

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Leewards islands, whatch out just in case it does not recurve like the models say.

Let's wait and see... assuming that the NHC predictions will be right Meanwhile a strong cat 3 cane should be just north of the Northern Leewards...
From the NHC 5AM Igor's discussion http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCDAT1

IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS.
THIS IS BASED ON THE MOTION OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND CONTINUITY.
THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL
MODELS TO PERSIST. ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. BY THEN...IGOR
WILL BE REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WHERE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAKER...AND BEGIN TO APPROACH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE
IGOR TO SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND
BIASED TO THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 17.1N 37.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 17.1N 40.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 17.2N 43.1W 75 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 17.4N 46.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 17.5N 48.5W 90 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 17.5N 52.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 18.5N 55.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 20.5N 59.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[TheBurn]

[gatorcane]

Looking at the nhc disco it is a cut and paste from the Earl, Fiona, and, Danielle discos as we watch every one of the cape verde systems recurve. Earl got close but the worst of earl stayed offshore the eastern seaboard and north of the islands.

All models show the turn so it will happen. Question is how close to the islands. Right now I don't see a direct hit until I see some good models show a track through the islands. The situation for you folks is a wait and see. Check the situation periodically but no need to be worried at this point.

[Macrocane]

I don't know what to think about Igor this morning, it has lost a lot of convection but the cloud pattern is very good, the outflow has became a little restricted to the north but the environment is expected to be favorable. What do you think? Has Igor weakened, strengthened or stays the same?

[cycloneye]

Marcocane,12z Best Track remains at 60kts.

AL, 11, 2010091112, , BEST, 0, 173N, 387W, 60, 995, TS

[wxman57]

In all of recorded history (since 1851), no storm passing within 115 miles north or south of Igor's current position has ever come within even 150 miles of the NE Caribbean. Luis (1995) was way down by 14N at 38W. Odds of a NE Caribbean hit are low. Not impossible, of course. I'd pay attention if I was living in the NE Caribbean. Kind of like standing on train tracks just beyond the switching point with a big train coming. Yeah, you know the switch will probably be thrown to turn the train away, but do you just stand there looking?

[Gustywind]

From Crown Weather Discussion http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Saturday, September 11, 2010 905 am EDT/805 am CDT

Tropical Storm Igor:
For Information About Tropical Storm Igor with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3068 .

Igor continues to strengthen this morning and has been displaying an occasional eye like feature. Satellite estimates indicate that this is almost a hurricane and I suspect that this will likely become a hurricane sometime today. Environmental conditions are favorable for Igor to continue to intensify and it is expected to become a major hurricane by about Tuesday. It should be noted that the global models indicate that Igor could become a large hurricane in its overall size.

Igor is tracking due west at a forward speed of 20 mph this morning. The storm is being steered by a building ridge of high pressure over the eastern Atlantic and this high pressure ridge is expected to hold in place for the next few days. So, Igor is expected to track westward through this weekend into early next week. By about Tuesday, Igor will be reaching the southwest side of that high pressure ridge and will also be approaching a broad trough of low pressure over the western Atlantic. This will cause Igor to slow down in forward speed and turn to the west-northwest and perhaps northwest.

Looking at the very long range guidance, both the latest European and GFS models forecast that Igor will turn northward around 60 West Longitude as we head into next weekend. The ensemble mean of the European model suggests a much slower track and suggests that the trough may end up leaving Igor behind somewhere around 35 North Latitude, 65 West Longitude in about 10 days from now. The Canadian model suggests a completely different solution and forecasts a much more progressive and weaker trough of low pressure and that the ridge of high pressure will steer Igor very close to the US East coast in about 10 days from now.

Nothing is guaranteed right now in the forecast track of Igor. Model guidance like the GFS model notoriously turn hurricanes out to sea too quickly and also during this time of year, we tend to see large high pressure systems track off of the US East coast blocking hurricanes from turning out into the open Atlantic. Is the Canadian model sniffing something out in its forecast?? It’s just too far out in time to tell for sure. Bottom line is that Igor is expected to become a very large and very intense hurricane and we will have to keep a very close eye on it.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Macrocane]

Marcocane,12z Best Track remains at 60kts.

AL, 11, 2010091112, , BEST, 0, 173N, 387W, 60, 995, TS

Thanks. It seems that we're going to wait a little more to see the 4th hurricane of the season.

[shell70]

Latest

Of course I am no pro but from the looks of this image Igor is going to be a monster. Please let it curve out to sea and spare everyone!