Record pace of development?
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hurricanehunter69
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Record pace of development?
Just like 2005 had the most active July ever. Could 2010 have the most active September ever? And if so, could 2010 produce the most active October as well? Given the conditions we've seen since mid august, could 2010 actually rival 2005's numbers afterall?
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Re: Record pace of development?
hurricanehunter69 wrote:Could 2010 have the most active September ever?
Sure.
hurricanehunter69 wrote: And if so, could 2010 produce the most active October as well?
It could happen.
hurricanehunter69 wrote:could 2010 actually rival 2005's numbers afterall?
No chance in hell.
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Stormcenter
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Re: Record pace of development?
No.....in my opinion.
hurricanehunter69 wrote:Just like 2005 had the most active July ever. Could 2010 have the most active September ever? And if so, could 2010 produce the most active October as well? Given the conditions we've seen since mid august, could 2010 actually rival 2005's numbers afterall?
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Hurricanehink
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Re: Record pace of development?
The 8th named storm this year (Hermine) was on September 6th, which was the 11th fastest season on record to reach that point.
The 9th named storm (Igor) was on September 8th, which was the 9th fastest on record.
If we get Julia before September 14th (92L?), it will be the 6th fastest on record.
If we get Karl before September 16th (some African wave?), it will be 5th fastest on record.
Data per http://www.thegreatzo.com/hurimg/, which is based off the best track.
The 9th named storm (Igor) was on September 8th, which was the 9th fastest on record.
If we get Julia before September 14th (92L?), it will be the 6th fastest on record.
If we get Karl before September 16th (some African wave?), it will be 5th fastest on record.
Data per http://www.thegreatzo.com/hurimg/, which is based off the best track.
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Stormcenter
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Re: Record pace of development?
Lots of "ifs" there. 
Hurricanehink wrote:The 8th named storm this year (Hermine) was on September 6th, which was the 11th fastest season on record to reach that point.
The 9th named storm (Igor) was on September 8th, which was the 9th fastest on record.
If we get Julia before September 14th (92L?), it will be the 6th fastest on record.
If we get Karl before September 16th (some African wave?), it will be 5th fastest on record.
Data per http://www.thegreatzo.com/hurimg/, which is based off the best track.
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Its not record breakingly fast, but there can be no doubt we have had a pretty explosive few weeks...Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine and Igor have all come in a 20 day period or so, so its more then possible we could end up with 8-9NS in the space of 30 days, which would be very quick pace indeed to be honest!
No doubts in my mind this season ends up going hyperactive in terms of the offical method of calculating whether a season is hyperactive or not.
No doubts in my mind this season ends up going hyperactive in terms of the offical method of calculating whether a season is hyperactive or not.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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ColinDelia
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Hurricanehink
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Re: Record pace of development?
Stormcenter wrote:Lots of "ifs" there.
Hurricanehink wrote:The 8th named storm this year (Hermine) was on September 6th, which was the 11th fastest season on record to reach that point.
The 9th named storm (Igor) was on September 8th, which was the 9th fastest on record.
If we get Julia before September 14th (92L?), it will be the 6th fastest on record.
If we get Karl before September 16th (some African wave?), it will be 5th fastest on record.
Data per http://www.thegreatzo.com/hurimg/, which is based off the best track.
Hey, we got a Code Red and a beautiful looking African wave. Not so iffy anymore
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Re: Record pace of development?
If we get J & K in the next few days...and it appears we will...i don't see why 18-20 named storms at least is not at all reasonable to forecast by the end of the season, esp. when la nina seasons tend to run late.
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ColinDelia
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Re:
bob rulz wrote:It's pretty remarkable how good of an analog 1998 has been so far.
I noticed CSU had 1998 listed as one of the four analog years based on the factors they use to predict how busy the season would be.
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