ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[latitude_20]

JB says it looks "Gilbertish".

[Steve]

>>JB says it looks "Gilbertish".

I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with him right off the bat. Gilbert is one of the scariest looking hurricanes to ever plow through the Caribbean and Southern Gulf. No way.

http://go-jamaica.com/blog/wp-content/u ... ilbert.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream//trop ... ilbert.jpg

I don't disagree with the ultimate track all that much except I think 92L probably hits the Yucatan lower. Still though, we don't need no Gilberts in 2010.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... 988trk.gif

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Off Topic= Someone suggested a poll about which invest will be TS Julia first and yes,there is a quick poll right now at Talking Tropics forum where the peeps can participate.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109367&p=2063196#p2063196

[cheezyWXguy]

JB says it looks "Gilbertish".

Wow gonna hafta agree. This looks like a shoe-in for the second-strongest hurricane in atlantic history...

[ROCK]

>>JB says it looks "Gilbertish".

I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with him right off the bat. Gilbert is one of the scariest looking hurricanes to ever plow through the Caribbean and Southern Gulf. No way.

http://go-jamaica.com/blog/wp-content/u ... ilbert.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream//trop ... ilbert.jpg

I don't disagree with the ultimate track all that much except I think 92L probably hits the Yucatan lower. Still though, we don't need no Gilberts in 2010.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... 988trk.gif

I remember that one...I was 15...parents were really worried about it....

[ericinmia]

>>JB says it looks "Gilbertish".

I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with him right off the bat. Gilbert is one of the scariest looking hurricanes to ever plow through the Caribbean and Southern Gulf. No way.

http://go-jamaica.com/blog/wp-content/u ... ilbert.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream//trop ... ilbert.jpg

I don't disagree with the ultimate track all that much except I think 92L probably hits the Yucatan lower. Still though, we don't need no Gilberts in 2010.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... 988trk.gif

People are so deceptive and politcal it's almost impossible to take anything as truth anymore.
JB was VERY clear he meant NOTHING like Gilbert in reference to size/strength, but that the track was a similar idea.
Steve this isn't really directed at you but moreso the constant misquoting and outlandish statements that go on here sometimes.

[gatorcane]

No way. I don't see a Gilbert out of this. You would need to have some of the global models on board like what they show for igor. Right now I'm not even sure it will get named.

[latitude_20]

I'm pretty sure JB was referring to track similarities, not intensity.

[expat2carib]

>>JB says it looks "Gilbertish".

I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with him right off the bat. Gilbert is one of the scariest looking hurricanes to ever plow through the Caribbean and Southern Gulf. No way.

http://go-jamaica.com/blog/wp-content/u ... ilbert.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream//trop ... ilbert.jpg

I don't disagree with the ultimate track all that much except I think 92L probably hits the Yucatan lower. Still though, we don't need no Gilberts in 2010.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... 988trk.gif

People are so deceptive and politcal it's almost impossible to take anything as truth anymore.
JB was VERY clear he meant NOTHING like Gilbert in reference to size/strength, but that the track was a similar idea.
Steve this isn't really directed at you but moreso the constant misquoting and outlandish statements that go on here sometimes.

Better misquoted then not quoted at all. He is a media shark. That why he's doing good financially.

I think he ment the track and not the size or strenght.

[tailgater]

Voice of reason. THX Eric

People are so deceptive and politcal it's almost impossible to take anything as truth anymore.
JB was VERY clear he meant NOTHING like Gilbert in reference to size/strength, but that the track was a similar idea.
Steve this isn't really directed at you but moreso the constant misquoting and outlandish statements that go on here sometimes.

I have no idea what JB meant but if it forms a LLC and stays clear of land till the Yucatan this could be a very big storm, the conditions seem favorable.

[caneseddy]

Someone on the easternwx board copied and pasted the portion from jb's discussion in which he clearly stated that he
meant gilbertish as in track not intensity

[BigA]

I have no idea what JB meant but if it forms a LLC and stays clear of land till the Yucatan this could be a very big storm, the conditions seem favorable.

I see no reason why not. It has an upper high sitting right over it already, and it's going to be traveresing some of the highest heat potential in the basin.

[Steve]

>>People are so deceptive and politcal it's almost impossible to take anything as truth anymore. JB was VERY clear he meant NOTHING like Gilbert in reference to size/strength, but that the track was a similar idea. Steve this isn't really directed at you but moreso the constant misquoting and outlandish statements that go on here sometimes.

No harm, no foul. I have my own agenda since Gilbert was the one storm that scared the **** out of me. Florence hit a bit earlier that year, so everyone was in tune. It was big. It was bad. It was going to kick some ***. My beef isn't with Joe, it is with Gilbert. Thus, my post wasn't to take issue with Joe. I love reading and watching him (although I despise his company and and am only 40/60 on the science & politics). I've learned as much from him as I have from anyone. And yeah, the track is similar though probably a little further south without the pain (hopefully) on Jamaica.

[masaji79]

Wow this sure has changed in the last 12 hours. Went to bed it looked like just a bunch of scattered clouds, now it looks like it's on the way to forming....something.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm not that impressed with it, just looks like a blob of convection, where's the turning, the LLC. The convection is also beginning to die off.

[cycloneye]

201
ABNT20 KNHC 111736
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1030 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE QUITE LOW...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

I am typing as a heavy shower with thunder moves over me in San Juan. I may have to shut down the PC while this band passes. It looks like Puerto Rico wuill cintinue to get many bands from this system.

[Sanibel]

Center might be somewhere in the 15N-67W area.

[cycloneye]

Is like 92L is over Puerto Rico with the many flood advisories being issued including a flash flood watch until 4 AM EDT for almost all the island except the NW corner. The rest of the flood advisories are being posted at the Caribbean /CentralAmerica thread at U.S & Caribbean weather forum.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
205 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

PRZ001>007-009-011>013-VIZ001-002-120800-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0010.100911T1805Z-100912T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR-
SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...UTUADO...
SABANA GRANDE...LARES...ADJUNTAS...CABO ROJO...LAJAS...CULEBRA...
ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
205 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 400 AM SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO
RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH
CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...PONCE AND VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST...VIEQUES AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX...ST
THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT /ADJACENT ISLANDS.

* THROUGH 400 AM SUNDAY

* A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST
NORTHWEST THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY AND WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

* ALTHOUGH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE QUICK
MOVERS...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THIS RAINFALL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING.
IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR
YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.