Caribbean - Central America Weather

[abajan]

... Would love to hear from Firebird, Abajan, chrisstlucia, expat2carib, caribsue, and others in Windwards a report of accumulated effects of 92L where they are ...

Last night I don't think there was much rain in my area but there was a fresh southerly breeze for most of the time I was awake.
Early this morning I went for a stroll with my sisters along the boardwalk on the south coast where the sea was noticeably choppier than usual because of south-easterly winds but the weather was fine. By mid-morning things became quite showery but the sun is out in all its brilliance now.

[Gustywind]

Barbara,Igor will be a big hurricane in intensity and in size.Because of that even if it tracks to the NE,we have to watch it.

Well said, you're right Luis! My friends from the Leewards and especially the Northern Leewards let's hope that Igor will follow the track anticipated by the NHC, that's means hopefully far away from the Northern Leewards. If this track does not verifies that could have implications at least for the swell given its latitude. But if Igor is to be more closer that what is expected that could be another story more "wet" . Wait and see for sure, but let's continue to keep an eye on this feature during the next couple of days...

[msbee]

thanks Gusty and Luis
so we continue to wait and watch.

St. Maarten currently is getting heavy rain showers from 92

[cycloneye]

Puerto Rico looks to get bands from 92L.

[expat2carib]

About 92L

I'm on Dominica at the moment to close the house down. Here it's been raining and raining for 2 days now. Once in a while a thunderstorm but nothing serious.

I'm in constant contact with the people on the boat on St. Lucia and there it's more or less the same.

I think it's a rain event but are very observatory as the NHC gives it 60% chance of development within 48 hours. When it really start spinning we will all have the feeder bands to deal with.

No wind to call home about here and on St. Lucia.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1206 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM...
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM...
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N...

* UNTIL 200 PM AST

* AT 1155 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR
GREATER OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO...MOVING WEST NORTHWEST
AT 25 KNOTS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

[Gustywind]

thanks Gusty and Luis
so we continue to wait and watch.

St. Maarten currently is getting heavy rain showers from 92

No problem Msbee we're far away from a (possible) direct threat for the moment and given the path expected..no need to really worry!
Be on our guard seems to me the most appropriate attitude to have. Let's continue to watch Igor, plenty of time for sure.

Rain showers are falling here but pretty lightly since one hour, little improvement seems on the verge in an pretty moist atmosphere. Given our radar of Guadeloupe, good patchs of rains showers are running everywhere on the Leewards islands, not surprised at all that some are in route towards St Marteen. Be prudent and stay dry all.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

About 92L

I'm on Dominica at the moment to close the house down. Here it's been raining and raining for 2 days now. Once in a while a thunderstorm but nothing serious.

I'm in constant contact with the people on the boat on St. Lucia and there it's more or less the same.

I think it's a rain event but are very observatory as the NHC gives it 60% chance of development within 48 hours. When it really start spinning we will all have the feeder bands to deal with.

No wind to call home about here and on St. Lucia.

Thanks for this report and all these nice infos , we appreciate my friend.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
108 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

PRC021-031-033-047-051-061-087-091-101-105-127-135-137-139-143-145-
112015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0406.100911T1708Z-100911T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-COROZAL PR-NARANJITO PR-MOROVIS PR-TOA ALTA PR-
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-
MANATI PR-CATANO PR-VEGA BAJA PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-TOA BAJA PR-
108 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...COROZAL...NARANJITO...MOROVIS...TOA ALTA...TRUJILLO
ALTO...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...MANATI...
CATANO...VEGA BAJA...SAN JUAN...LOIZA AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 108 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAD FALLEN ACROSS SECTIONS
OF TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA AND VEGA BAJA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS
AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING
SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

[Gustywind]

Isolated tstorms here with some lightnings.

[cycloneye]

Flood Advisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
146 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

VIC010-112045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0407.100911T1746Z-100911T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT CROIX VI-
146 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLAND...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 140 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES
TO INDICATE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TRAILING BANDS OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL COMBINE WITH RUNOFF FROM
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL AND WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF GUT...URBAN
AREAS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
205 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

PRZ001>007-009-011>013-VIZ001-002-120800-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0010.100911T1805Z-100912T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR-
SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...UTUADO...
SABANA GRANDE...LARES...ADJUNTAS...CABO ROJO...LAJAS...CULEBRA...
ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
205 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 400 AM SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO
RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH
CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...PONCE AND VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST...VIEQUES AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX...ST
THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT /ADJACENT ISLANDS.

* THROUGH 400 AM SUNDAY

* A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST
NORTHWEST THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY AND WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

* ALTHOUGH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE QUICK
MOVERS...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THIS RAINFALL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING.
IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR
YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

[bvigal]

Thanks for all the reports! I'm relieved to read no bad problems with flooding/mudslides down island.

I've been offline with no power since about noon, it went out before the rain and squally winds reached my house, so maybe it was caused by lightning. Nothing else to do but read the newspaper I bought yesterday about the cleanup, etc., only it got so dark I could hardly see. It rained really hard and blew for a bit, but I don't think long enough to cause problems. Sure glad I spent 2hrs yesterday cleaning out a drain on the property that was clogged with sticks, leaves, mud, and sand.

Gusty, you are always a breath of fresh, sweet air, thanks hon!!!

Barbara, as to Igor, we are in the cone of uncertainty now, with all that implies. Earl was supposed to go north, too, remember? I wrote this morning: "All eyes in NE Caribbean are on Igor's track, having so recently experienced Earl. Close monitoring is wise, here's comparison of 5-day track forecasts at same point westward. In both forecast tracks VI/BVI are outside the uncertainty cone. The significant difference between these two is the intensity, with Igor slated to be a major and also a large storm. US Navy drew the map for Advisory 12 on Igor with local area and all of Leewards within the 5-day cone of uncertainty..." I always go by the Navy maps, they show the circumferance of average daily error on each fix point, NHC kind of rounds them.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

PRC001-003-005-011-013-027-065-071-081-083-097-099-115-117-131-141-
112130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0408.100911T1829Z-100911T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-ADJUNTAS PR-MOCA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-
UTUADO PR-AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-LAS MARIAS PR-LARES PR-CAMUY PR-
HATILLO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-RINCON PR-ANASCO PR-ARECIBO PR-
229 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...ADJUNTAS...MOCA...QUEBRADILLAS...SAN SEBASTIAN...
UTUADO...AGUADILLA...AGUADA...LAS MARIAS...LARES...CAMUY...
HATILLO...MAYAGUEZ...RINCON...ANASCO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 223 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
HAD FALLEN ACROSS SECTIONS OF UTUADO AND LARES. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...
STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW
LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

[expat2carib]

Thanks for all the reports! I'm relieved to read no bad problems with flooding/mudslides down island.

I've been offline with no power since about noon, it went out before the rain and squally winds reached my house, so maybe it was caused by lightning. Nothing else to do but read the newspaper I bought yesterday about the cleanup, etc., only it got so dark I could hardly see. It rained really hard and blew for a bit, but I don't think long enough to cause problems. Sure glad I spent 2hrs yesterday cleaning out a drain on the property that was clogged with sticks, leaves, mud, and sand.

Gusty, you are always a breath of fresh, sweet air, thanks hon!!!

Barbara, as to Igor, we are in the cone of uncertainty now, with all that implies. Earl was supposed to go north, too, remember? I wrote this morning: "All eyes in NE Caribbean are on Igor's track, having so recently experienced Earl. Close monitoring is wise, here's comparison of 5-day track forecasts at same point westward. In both forecast tracks VI/BVI are outside the uncertainty cone. The significant difference between these two is the intensity, with Igor slated to be a major and also a large storm. US Navy drew the map for Advisory 12 on Igor with local area and all of Leewards within the 5-day cone of uncertainty..." I always go by the Navy maps, they show the circumferance of average daily error on each fix point, NHC kind of rounds them.

Very good synopsis of the situation. Thank you! I'm thinking the same.With a little bit of bad luck it can become messy. It's the peak of the season and it's no rocket science but weather, with all it's uncertainties and professional guessing.

Hope for the best,prepare for the worst. At least that's my motto.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall
Sat Sep 11 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 32.9C 91F 2.2mm
Crown Point, Tobago 30.7C 87F 20.8mm
Point Salines, Grenada 29.4C 85F 4.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.5C 87F 3.0mm

Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 30.7C 87F 2.4mm
Vigie, St Lucia 31.4C 88F 7.0mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.9C 89F 8.3mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 27.9C 82F 24.0mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.3C 83F 23.3mm
VC Bird, Antigua 29.4C 85F 13.1mm

Juliana Airport, St Maarten 30.6C 87F 10.0mm
Roosevelt, St Eustatius XXXX 12.0mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.6C 87F 19.5mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 32.8C 91F 6.9mm
Kingston, Jamaica 33.5C 93F 0.6mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 33.6C 93F
Havana, Cuba 34.1C 94F

Nassau, Bahamas 33.0C 91F 14.7mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 29.0C 84F 30.3mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
919 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

.UPDATE...THE 00Z BALLOON RUN REVEALED A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE
MOISTURE COLUMN BETWEEN 7 AND 15 THOUSAND FEET WHERE THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DIPPED TO 58 PERCENT IN AN OTHERWISE NEARLY SATURATED
SOUNDING. A MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 15 THOUSAND FEET WAS OBSERVED
AT LAUNCH TIME. STRONG CONVECTION DISSIPATED RAPIDLY AFTER 6 PM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WAS MOVING WEST AT 16 KNOTS FROM A POSITION OF 12.8 NORTH
18.5 WEST AT 8 PM AST. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RE-FORM
AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW OR AT LEAST ON THE WEST OR DOWN SHEAR
SIDE LATER TONIGHT AND SEND A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. FOR PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS WOULD MEAN SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST AS TO AVOID STRONG WINDS...BUT WINDS DO
REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 3 AND 30 THOUSAND FEET SO THERE COULD
BE STRONG...GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODEST...HOWEVER...IF ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS
FORMS IT COULD PRODUCE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OVER PUERTO RICO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED. SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER
PERSIST ALL DAY TOMORROW...AND IT VERY WELL MAY...HEAVY RAIN
SUNDAY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN SATURDAY`S DOWNPOURS...OTHERWISE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE CONSIDERED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOKING TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...THE NAM
EXTENDS THE MOISTURE MUCH LONGER THAN THE GFS BECAUSE IT BEGINS AN
ALMOST NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS HAITI ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
BRINGING BANDS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE GFS IS MUCH
DRIER AND BRINGS SUBSIDING AIR OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY. THIS IS
A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME WHICH I BELIEVE EXISTS AT THE CENTER
LOCATION...THEREFORE HAVE TENDED TOWARD POPS THAT REFLECT A SLOWER
DRYING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A VCSH OR -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
12/14Z...HOWEVER PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN CLD DECK
5-8KFT. AFT 12/14Z...TEMPO MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL PR TAF SITES...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS VI
TAF SITES...AND PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK.
E TO SELY LLVL WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 20 EXPECTED AFT 12/14Z...WITH
LOCALLY TERRAIN AND SEA BREEZE INDUCED VARIATIONS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY. THE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ISSUE ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE IGOR...THE FOURTH OF THE SEASONS...NOW
LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IGOR WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE MONDAY. THE PRESENT
MOVEMENT IS TOWARD THE WEST AT 17 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST BULLETINS/UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FORECAST AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS STILL SOME WAYS AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...AND
THUS THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMIC...TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
OVERALL DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STILL
EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE EACH AFTERNOON...TO RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

LOOKING AHEAD...WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HURRICANE IGOR...AS IT MOVES
MAINLY WEST AND STRENGTHENS DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND MOST FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEST
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TURN TAKING PLACE BEFORE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...SOME EFFECTS ARE STILL EXPECTED LOCALLY...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN AND MODERATE TO
LARGE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST OCEAN SWELLS. SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATE THAT THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING EARLY MORNING VCSH OR -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR TJBQ...WHERE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
WELL OFFSHORE. PREVAILING VFR CONDS CAN HOWEVER BE EXPECTED THROUGH
12/14Z... OVERALL LOW LEVEL CLDS WITH CIGS BTW 5-10KFT CAN BE
EXPECTED EN ROUTE BTW VI AND PR. THE PASSING SHRA WILL BRING LOW
SCUD CLDS AND TEMPO MVFR ACROSS MOST OF PR TAF SITES...AS WELL AS
ACROSS VI AND LOCAL TAF SITES. PREVAILING VFR CONDS IS FORECAST
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK. E TO SE LLVL WIND FLOW OF 10-20 KTS EXPECTED
AFT 12/14Z...WITH LOCALLY TERRAIN AND SEA BREEZE INDUCED VARIATIONS
DURG THE REST OF THE DAY.

[BZSTORM]

Luis can I ask a question as you seem to have good grap of how ridges etc work, from what I just read on the model page for 92L seems its all depends on how the ridge holds or weakens depends on if 92L will be Yucatan or Belize. Am I reading this correctly? If so what date are we possibly looking at for landfall and what intensity, I know until cyclone actually forms its hard to pinpoint but an estimate would be handy. thxs Marion

[Macrocane]

Yesterday was the warmest day in El Salvador in a month, the temperatures rose because drier and more stable air was in place during the later part of the week, some places like San Salvador and San Miguel had 3 days without rain (something rare in september wich is the wettest month), but last night the rains returned and it seems that the next few days will be wet too, these are the observations:

Temperatures

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Acajutla         min:22.9°C/73.2°F      max:30.1°C/86.2°F
Santa Ana        min:19.7°C/67.5°F      max:31.6°C/88.9°F
San Salvador     min:20.6°C/69.1°F      max:30.6°C/87.1°F
Las Pilas        min:12.3°C/54.1°F      max:21.8°C/71.2°F
San Miguel       min:22.2°C/72.0°F      max:34.7°C/94.5°F 


Rainfall
Acajutla 5.6 mm/0.22 inches
San Salvadro 15 mm/0.59 inches
San Miguel 16 mm/0.63 inches
Santa Ana 27.6 mm/1.09 inches
Santiago de Maria 50 mm/1.97 inches