ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Not sure if appropriate, but should a local impacts thread be made?

[Typhoon_Willie]

Might not be a bad idea there Crazy.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 92, 2010091118, , BEST, 0, 145N, 657W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Aric,you have it there?

[Aric Dunn]

18z Best Track

AL, 92, 2010091118, , BEST, 0, 145N, 657W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Aric,you have it there?

yeah so it seems...

[Bailey1777]

looks to me to be dolng exactly what those with the most knowledge of these systems expected. we have heard them speak of a several pulse up and down evolution and possible td late mon. or tues.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 92, 2010091118, , BEST, 0, 145N, 657W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Aric,you have it there?

yeah so it seems...

They just updated the latitude position from 14.5N to 14.6N.

AL, 92, 2010091118, , BEST, 0, 146N, 657W, 25, 1009, DB

[Aric Dunn]

18z Best Track

AL, 92, 2010091118, , BEST, 0, 145N, 657W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Aric,you have it there?

yeah so it seems...

They just updated the latitude position from 14.5N to 14.6N.

AL, 92, 2010091118, , BEST, 0, 146N, 657W, 25, 1009, DB

wonder why... not like its that defined of a center.. or anything its very broad and likely barely hanging on...

[vbhoutex]

not like its that defined of a center.. or anything its very broad and likely barely hanging on...

I'm not even sure I agree that it has a center unless it is a MLC we are talking about. Definitely is pulsing down right now and throwing out several outflow boundaries on the SE side. Not good for development last time I checked. If it hangs on I have to agree it will be at least Monday before I think 92L consolidates enough to be classified. Meanwhile PR etc are getting too much rain. Hopefully this phase will alleviate some of that rain for a while.

[gatorcane]

not like its that defined of a center.. or anything its very broad and likely barely hanging on...

I'm not even sure I agree that it has a center unless it is a MLC we are talking about. Definitely is pulsing down right now and throwing out several outflow boundaries on the SE side. Not good for development last time I checked. If it hangs on I have to agree it will be at least Monday before I think 92L consolidates enough to be classified. Meanwhile PR etc are getting too much rain. Hopefully this phase will alleviate some of that rain for a while.

Yeah as expected development, if any, would be slow to occur. I think it's got a shot in the western Caribbean before moving inland into Mexico.

[cycloneye]

not like its that defined of a center.. or anything its very broad and likely barely hanging on...

I'm not even sure I agree that it has a center unless it is a MLC we are talking about. Definitely is pulsing down right now and throwing out several outflow boundaries on the SE side. Not good for development last time I checked. If it hangs on I have to agree it will be at least Monday before I think 92L consolidates enough to be classified. Meanwhile PR etc are getting too much rain. Hopefully this phase will alleviate some of that rain for a while.

Agree with the Monday timetable.Hopefully,flood events dont occur in Puerto Rico nor in Hispanola.So far minor flooding has been reported here.

[expat2carib]

We here on Dominica are "out of the way" by now, but it's incredible what those small "popcorn" like stains you see on the radar can produce in rain.

It's torrential rain over and over again. Small segments but dropping a lot of water.

[Aquawind]

Well it has expanded so eventually a pulse will persist as the moisture increases.. Dang(YAY) the SAL/ Dry air blob the came with Gaston really shut things down..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[Aric Dunn]

About the only thing I can see happening anytime soon... would be some thing possibly working down to the surface near the mid level circ... other than that i cant find any surface observations to indicate anything at the surface ...

[bvigal]

We here on Dominica are "out of the way" by now, but it's incredible what those small "popcorn" like stains you see on the radar can produce in rain.

It's torrential rain over and over again. Small segments but dropping a lot of water.

Yes, know what you mean by the amount of rain that comes down when it doesn't look that bad on radar! I sure hope there's no serious flooding or slides there, Dominica is a very mountainous (and BEAUTIFUL!) island.

Noticing how much precip has spread out, now rain to ABCs, and to Dominican republic, and also into the Atlantic waters north of us. As Aquawind commented, "it has expanded." Really concerned for Haiti.
8:15AST

3:15AST

[jinftl]

Starting to get 'that look'....banding features visible now

[expat2carib]

Noticing how much precip has spread out, now rain to ABCs, and to Dominican republic, and also into the Atlantic waters north of us. As Aquawind commented, "it has expanded." Really concerned for Haiti.
8:15AST
http://img201.imageshack.us/img201/7575 ... rb1215.gif
3:15AST
http://img808.imageshack.us/img808/6250 ... rb1915.gif

Yes I'm really concerned for Haiti as well. Most of us on the islands are sitting "high and dry" and can sit a storm out.

They can NOT on Haiti!

[Just Joshing You]

Starting to get 'that look'....banding features visible now

That is a scary looking picture.

[Aquawind]

Yes but not much of it is at the surface so no quick changes..in fact most of the deep convection is gone. Nice twist though..

[jinftl]

Agree...there have been tropical waves and tropical depressions that have brought unimaginable flooding and distress to haiti. This doesn't need to be a Cat 4 to wreack havoc. In May 2004, a tropical disturbance (not even a depression) killed 2600 in haiti as it dumped 18 inches of rain in a 3-day period. We can only hope 92L moves out quickly and doesn't linger.

Noticing how much precip has spread out, now rain to ABCs, and to Dominican republic, and also into the Atlantic waters north of us. As Aquawind commented, "it has expanded." Really concerned for Haiti.
8:15AST
http://img201.imageshack.us/img201/7575 ... rb1215.gif
3:15AST
http://img808.imageshack.us/img808/6250 ... rb1915.gif

Yes I'm really concerned for Haiti as well. Most of us on the islands are sitting "high and dry" and can sit a storm out.

They can NOT on Haiti!

[Bailey1777]

question, if a circulation seems to be absent what is giving 92 such banding?