ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye open near 16N/69W.

[cycloneye]

wxman57, you still have Monday for this to develop?

[Houstonia]

Thank you for a good explanation!

Just curious - I see a lot of predictions of this invest moving into Mexico. Isn't that further than the 5-day cone of prediction? How come so many people already know it's a Mexico storm? Can predictions be made with a high level of certainty at this point? I don't mind the predictions, just curious about the certainty. Thanks.

Disturbances and storms track along with the winds aloft. If the winds above a system are blowing from east to west, then the system moves to the west. The models are fairly good at predicting the positions of highs and lows in the middle and upper part of the atmosphere for 5 days out and often quite farther out.

In this case, the models are indicating that the high pressure area over Texas in the mid levels of the atmosphere will extend eastward across the Gulf over the coming week. That means the winds aloft will be blowing from east to west across the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. And since the winds aloft are blowing to the west, that's where the disturbance (or storm) should go. It will move westward to the south of the big area of high pressure to its north.

Here's a map showing the predicted position of the high center by both the American GFS model and the European model for next Wednesday. With that kind of flow present when the disturbance reaches near the Yucatan, it really can't turn north or head to Texas. That is, unless all the models are completely wrong about the position of the high center.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/high.gif

[Recurve]

Man, isn't WXman fantastic? Not kidding, this guy is "member of the month" every month as far as I'm concerned.

Someone asked a question and he wrote out a great, clear, precise and informative answer, included a graphic, and helped a lot of people understand what's going on...and eased my mind in particular about where this system, if it develops, is finally going.

Welcome to the board newbies. Pay attention to what Wxman says, always. And some of the other members, pros and amateurs, you'll see who gives thoughtful information and backs it up with facts and sources.

Sorry to gush, just need to give props where it's due. While I'm at it, also thanks to Aric, Ivanhater, Cycloneye, XYno, hurricane, MCG, KMT, and all you others who help out so much....
Really appreciate it.

-- Recurve -- AKA Dave Hawkins

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 112331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1140 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 400
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED
BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN

[Aquawind]

Nice job wxman57..graphics and all..

[ConvergenceZone]

I still can't believe how lucky the gulf states have been when it comes to being protected by high pressure this year. This is unbelievable!! Not sure I've seen anything like it before... Storm after storm predicted to go into Mexico due to high pressure protecting the gulf states.

[wx247]

Storm after storm predicted to go into Mexico due to high pressure protecting the gulf states.

You mean Alex and TD Two... hardly does two equal storm after storm. While the high has been there consistently most of the summer it hasn't caused numerous storms to barrel into Mexico. Just those two... so far.

[hurricaneCW]

I still can't believe how lucky the gulf states have been when it comes to being protected by high pressure this year. This is unbelievable!! Not sure I've seen anything like it before... Storm after storm predicted to go into Mexico due to high pressure protecting the gulf states.

Yeah but the high will have to weaken as we get further into the fall season and especially in October so I'm not sure the gulf states have lucked out yet.

[Bailey1777]

question and please only answer if you really have knowledge of it. can a hurricane trump a high? another words could a very large system move an area of high pressure or compress it? hope this isn't a stupid question.

[Steve]

Kludge,

The chances of a Mexican (e.g. Yucatan) hit are pretty substantial. It isnt so much about knowing, but sometimes things can be pretty obvious. It wont mean it is necessarily going to form or that something else could happen along the way, but chances are this will impact Mexico - maybe even twice. You know the old saying, "thats why they play the game" still applies. But sometimes the telegraphing is there. The Saints will probably win. Check. 92L will probably hit the Yucatan.

[JtSmarts]

I still can't believe how lucky the gulf states have been when it comes to being protected by high pressure this year. This is unbelievable!! Not sure I've seen anything like it before... Storm after storm predicted to go into Mexico due to high pressure protecting the gulf states.

This season kind of reminds of a hybrid between 1995 and 2007 in a way.

[expat2carib]

question and please only answer if you really have knowledge of it. can a hurricane trump a high? another words could a very large system move an area of high pressure or compress it? hope this isn't a stupid question.

Actually there is a thread for this kind of questions

_________________________________

Got a question? I'm listening

If you have a question, don't care what it is ~ If you need a hand, We can assure you this ~ We can help

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=42

___________________________________

[ericinmia]

question and please only answer if you really have knowledge of it. can a hurricane trump a high? another words could a very large system move an area of high pressure or compress it? hope this isn't a stupid question.

The simple answer is no. Think of High pressure as mountains and low pressure as the valleys. The storms can't climb mountains, but instead go through the valleys. Also, the taller (stronger) the high pressure the more it will influence the storm, the same way the stronger the valley is (low pressure "like fronts/troughs") the stronger the affect will be on the storm.

It gets a lot more complicated, because for instance you can have a high pressure that is very strong at certain levels, but not others. This would lead to it steering a stronger/weaker storm differently.

Hope that helps explain it in simple/laymans terms...
-Eric

[LaBreeze]

I still can't believe how lucky the gulf states have been when it comes to being protected by high pressure this year. This is unbelievable!! Not sure I've seen anything like it before... Storm after storm predicted to go into Mexico due to high pressure protecting the gulf states.

Yes, very lucky indeed. Not complaining here. The High can park itself here until the season is over. Once the high moves, we should still be protected by the fronts that should be heading down our way.

[ConvergenceZone]

Storm after storm predicted to go into Mexico due to high pressure protecting the gulf states.

You mean Alex and TD Two... hardly does two equal storm after storm. While the high has been there consistently most of the summer it hasn't caused numerous storms to barrel into Mexico. Just those two... so far.

I should re-phrase it, the high has been protecting the USA gulf states from any majors......For example if Alex would have moved North, it probably would have hit major status if that high wasn't there, since it would have had more water to traverse across.... We shouldn't take this season for granted as we have been EXTREMELY lucky so far....

[vbhoutex]

question and please only answer if you really have knowledge of it. can a hurricane trump a high? another words could a very large system move an area of high pressure or compress it? hope this isn't a stupid question.

ericinmiami gave a good answer. A very strong Hurricane(high CAT4 or Cat5)can sometimes start to erode the edge of a high pressure ridge. Can it "trump" the high pressure and push through it? No, but it can affect it some.

IMO, invest 92L is going to continue to struggle to get its act together for at least the next two days if not longer. It looks/ed better than it really is as far as its structure imo.

[cycloneye]

Keep an eye open near 16N/69W.

Steve,almost the position SAB Dvorak has.

11/2345 UTC 15.5N 69.0W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[lonelymike]

I still can't believe how lucky the gulf states have been when it comes to being protected by high pressure this year. This is unbelievable!! Not sure I've seen anything like it before... Storm after storm predicted to go into Mexico due to high pressure protecting the gulf states.

Yes, very lucky indeed. Not complaining here. The High can park itself here until the season is over. Once the high moves, we should still be protected by the fronts that should be heading down our way.

Front already moved thru NW FLA so the fronts are beginning to clear the coast. Not saying that the Northern Gulf is protected until the end of hurricane season just pointing out the fronts are starting to clear.

[Steve]

Storm after storm predicted to go into Mexico due to high pressure protecting the gulf states.

You mean Alex and TD Two... hardly does two equal storm after storm. While the high has been there consistently most of the summer it hasn't caused numerous storms to barrel into Mexico. Just those two... so far.

I should re-phrase it, the high has been protecting the USA gulf states from any majors......For example if Alex would have moved North, it probably would have hit major status if that high wasn't there, since it would have had more water to traverse across.... We shouldn't take this season for granted as we have been EXTREMELY lucky so far....

Maybe. And it could yet happen. But for my money, the Western Atlantic is clearly the place where the majority of majors (not sure how many we will see) should be this year. Igor should make it 3 of 3. Certainly other places in the basin are capable of supporting majors, but that is where we have seen them so far. Might Alex have been major if it would have been able to move further north? Maybe. We don't know. Maybe not.