ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 92, 2010091200, , BEST, 0, 152N, 675W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Steve]

I still can't believe how lucky the gulf states have been when it comes to being protected by high pressure this year. This is unbelievable!! Not sure I've seen anything like it before... Storm after storm predicted to go into Mexico due to high pressure protecting the gulf states.

Yes, very lucky indeed. Not complaining here. The High can park itself here until the season is over. Once the high moves, we should still be protected by the fronts that should be heading down our way.

Front already moved thru NW FLA so the fronts are beginning to clear the coast. Not saying that the Northern Gulf is protected until the end of hurricane season just pointing out the fronts are starting to clear.

True. But 2005 and 2008 got far more brutal after we saw some fronts. We can't say that will be the case in 2010. But I don't take a lot of stock in fronts while still in the summer. I know you aren't saying we're protected, but sometimes they usher in the season. It can go either way for sure.

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye open near 16N/69W.

Steve,almost the position SAB Dvorak has.

11/2345 UTC 15.5N 69.0W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

Looking better as well Luis. Perhaps some consolidation this evening/overnight.

[Vortex]

I have the center at 16.7/68.5...right near that recent convective burst.

[Aric Dunn]

I have the center at 16.7/68.5...right near that recent convective burst.

Well the mid level circ. there is no evidence of anything at the surface.

[dwsqos2]

Wake me up when there are observations of more than light or even easterly winds south of the disturbance. As I said earlier today, there really is not much going on at the surface.

Until I see low-level westerly winds converging toward some mean point, I will remain unconvinced that development ever occurs.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kludge]

Kludge,

The chances of a Mexican (e.g. Yucatan) hit are pretty substantial. It isnt so much about knowing, but sometimes things can be pretty obvious. It wont mean it is necessarily going to form or that something else could happen along the way, but chances are this will impact Mexico - maybe even twice. You know the old saying, "thats why they play the game" still applies. But sometimes the telegraphing is there. [In my opinion,]The Saints will probably win. Check. 92L will probably hit the Yucatan.

There... I fixed it. And now we totally agree. See how easy it is....?

[ConvergenceZone]

Maybe. And it could yet happen. But for my money, the Western Atlantic is clearly the place where the majority of majors (not sure how many we will see) should be this year. Igor should make it 3 of 3. Certainly other places in the basin are capable of supporting majors, but that is where we have seen them so far. Might Alex have been major if it would have been able to move further north? Maybe. We don't know. Maybe not.

Good point you make Steve. In fact, the local met just said on the TV here about an hour ago that the type of steering currents we are seeing right now aren't conducive to any U.S. landfalling hurricanes. So I guess we aren't the only ones noticing it.....

[Sanibel]

Another "flash-off" d-min pulse. The next burst will tell us what it has.

[tailgater]

Should be able to see if it blows for the diurnal max on the long range radar out of PR.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes.

IMHO it will

[wxman57]

I have the center at 16.7/68.5...right near that recent convective burst.

Vortex, I'm looking at a plot of Caribbean obs with a satellite overlay. To the southeast of that convective burst is a buoy with ENE winds last hour, indicating that any low center is near 15N. I believe that's a mid-level rotation near the burst. The lower level center (weak as it is) appears to be near 15N/67.8W. It just passed west of the buoy and winds shifted ESE.

As I look at it this evening, I don't see it getting better organized. Convection is really falling off. Perhaps it's the sinking air across the Caribbean, same thing that finally killed Gaston? It may take a pattern change across the U.S. (fall) before the Caribbean and Gulf get active. I'm becoming much less concerned about this system.

[ROCK]

nothing at the surface yet as I can see...that burst right around the assumed center looks suspicious...if it shoots a very cold top then we might have a go.....as far as that high protecting the gulf states I need a little more guidance...other than the GFS that does nothing with it and the HWRF that stalls it over DR before moving it SW back into the carib....all I can keep thinking about is IKE which the ECM showed a MX hit then creeped up the coast......hard for a high to hang on 6 days from now given the recent pattern....

guess we will see...

[Bailey1777]

wxman, why does the nhc who has access to every tool available keep saying conditions are favorable? this same sinking air has been around for awhile. what is their thinking ln your opinion?

[gatorcane]

I have the center at 16.7/68.5...right near that recent convective burst.

Vortex, I'm looking at a plot of Caribbean obs with a satellite overlay. To the southeast of that convective burst is a buoy with ENE winds last hour, indicating that any low center is near 15N. I believe that's a mid-level rotation near the burst. The lower level center (weak as it is) appears to be near 15N/67.8W. It just passed west of the buoy and winds shifted ESE.

As I look at it this evening, I don't see it getting better organized. Convection is really falling off. Perhaps it's the sinking air across the Caribbean, same thing that finally killed Gaston? It may take a pattern change across the U.S. (fall) before the Caribbean and Gulf get active. I'm becoming much less concerned about this system.

I wasn't concerned about this system from the get-go. In fact I nearly wrote it off a couple of days ago. My forecast was for there to be slow development, if any. Looking at it tonight, I just don't see much there at all. Continues to look like a pulsing tropical wave headed west across the Caribbean with some increased development chances in the western Caribbean before moving inland into Mexico.

[gatorcane]

wxman, why does the nhc who has access to every tool available keep saying conditions are favorable? this same sinking air has been around for awhile. what is their thinking ln your opinion?

Same thing happened with gaston. I do believe it's the sinking air wxman mentions. I think nhc backs down to code orange or even yellow tomorrow.

We will need to look to the end of this month and into october. I'm fairly certain we (u.s.) will see a threat(s) from the Caribbean but it's several weeks away still.

[psyclone]

i think you could be correct here gatorcane. i thought this had a good shot at developing but thus far it has been unable to maintain convection. of course it needs to be monitored but development is far from certain.

[Bailey1777]

gator i understand whats happening what i dont understand is why the nhc thinks developement is likely when they are seeing the same things we are. there has to be more to it right?

[gatorcane]

gator i understand whats happening what i dont understand is why the nhc thinks developement is likely when they are seeing the same things we are. there has to be more to it right?

I edited my answer above as I realized I didn't answer your question. For one it had pretty decent model support and the gfdl really liked this system in particular. I think the nhc likes the gfdl. Also the convection was quite impressive for a day or so. So I'm guessing these are some reasons.

[Ptarmigan]

True. But 2005 and 2008 got far more brutal after we saw some fronts. We can't say that will be the case in 2010. But I don't take a lot of stock in fronts while still in the summer. I know you aren't saying we're protected, but sometimes they usher in the season. It can go either way for sure.

I can attest to 2008 with Ike. A front was approaching and allowed Ike to make landfall. Then we get more heavy rain from that passing front, which rains over the area flooded from Ike.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED AT ANY TIME TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IN CASE
WATCHES OR WATCHES ARE REQUIRED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI