ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Bailey1777]

see still sticking with high percent and favorable conditions. oh well patience is a virtue...a virtue i dont have....ill stick with mon. evening a td.

[lrak]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

plus the long range radar makes me think its starting to organize at the lower levels, morning will tell us.

[Recurve]

Man what an interesting loop there is now. From a big big area of medium tops that totally evaporate, and now three cold-topped blobs blowing up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

[bob rulz]

I was a bit more optimistic than most of you for development but after seeing what it's done tonight, it's clear that it's still got a long ways to go.

[xironman]

Nice pulse up at DMAX

[xironman]

Getting better lined up.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO=50%



SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND CUBA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

[ColinDelia]

200 mb streamlines. Upper level high has been building over 92L for the past 6-9 hours. wasn't there before that.

[srainhoutx]

Houston Galveston AFD...snip...

ECMWF STILL AND NAM NOW DEVELOPING WAVE IN THE EASTERN GULF
ARRIVING ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE YUCATAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS STILL A WEAKER SOLUTION ALONG THE SAME
LINES AND TIMING. ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST
WITH THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE THE GFS HAS
PUSHED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF.
STAY TUNED.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps,SAB Dvorak gives life to 92L.

12/1145 UTC 15.7N 70.7W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic

[TheBurn]

[HURAKAN]

I'm doubting they will send the RECON plane today.

[perk]

Houston Galveston AFD...snip...

ECMWF STILL AND NAM NOW DEVELOPING WAVE IN THE EASTERN GULF
ARRIVING ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE YUCATAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS STILL A WEAKER SOLUTION ALONG THE SAME
LINES AND TIMING. ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST
WITH THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE THE GFS HAS
PUSHED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF.
STAY TUNED.

What exactly are they suggesting?

[HURAKAN]

12z

AL, 92, 2010091212, , BEST, 0, 157N, 707W, 25, 1007, DB

[Aquawind]

Another sunrise convection burst..we shall see if this the pulse to persist..

[cycloneye]

I'm doubting they will send the RECON plane today.

These two are flying right now.

Code: Select all

A. THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR MISSION BETWEEN
           41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 12/1100Z.

        B. THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24 HR MISSION
           ABOVE 58,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 12/1130Z.


[KWT]

Yeah they have alot of research planes flying around in 92L right now anyway so they have a pretty good idea of whats going on with 92L.

Plenty of plusing but still nothing holding long enough, the negative MJO we currently have is no doubt hurting things combined with general low levels of instablity.

[Aric Dunn]

Now we have something to watch. Looks like surface circ developing around 15.5-16.5N and 71-72W a few ship reports out there this morning have helped. The whole system looks very promising this morning and seems we will get a TD out of it after all. I had my doubts yesterday.

[FogbowBlue]

Disco from San Antonio NWS

San Antonio NWS Forecast Discussion

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
ECMWF MOVES THIS FEATURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF REACHING THE
NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS TEXAS MAY ALLOW MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM BEARS
WATCHING.

[tailgater]

Once it clears DR/Haiti it will likely consolidate, looks to me very near the southern coast to me.