ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[wxman57]

Houston Galveston AFD...snip...

ECMWF STILL AND NAM NOW DEVELOPING WAVE IN THE EASTERN GULF
ARRIVING ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE YUCATAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS STILL A WEAKER SOLUTION ALONG THE SAME
LINES AND TIMING. ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST
WITH THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE THE GFS HAS
PUSHED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF.
STAY TUNED.

What exactly are they suggesting?

Looks like a typo - they said "eastern Gulf" but meant Caribbean. There's nothing in the eastern Gulf.

[ROCK]

Houston Galveston AFD...snip...

ECMWF STILL AND NAM NOW DEVELOPING WAVE IN THE EASTERN GULF
ARRIVING ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE YUCATAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS STILL A WEAKER SOLUTION ALONG THE SAME
LINES AND TIMING. ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST
WITH THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE THE GFS HAS
PUSHED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF.
STAY TUNED.

What exactly are they suggesting?

.....already hints out there coming in....hmmmm....I do remember saying a ridge wont hold for that long in mid-Sept... ...the ECM been showing this for some time but kept burying it in the BOC....

might have some interesting solutions tonight.....BTW- they are flying a NASA plane in there..that is really interesting as NASA was testing an experimental aircraft over the city yesterday evening..This plane was doing circles after circles...wonder if that is connected.

[Sanibel]

Usually when the Atlantic has had a major hurricane on an east coast track you can assume the Caribbean is favorable since it is much deeper into the tropics. However, this year there's a weird condition where maybe the Nina has created dry negative conditions further into the tropics.

It's mid-September and another front is moving off the east coast.

[ROCK]

Yeah they have alot of research planes flying around in 92L right now anyway so they have a pretty good idea of whats going on with 92L.

Plenty of plusing but still nothing holding long enough, the negative MJO we currently have is no doubt hurting things combined with general low levels of instablity.

negative shegative....if the MJO mattered so much why is IGOR going to be a major?


it obvoiusly the US is EXTREMELY concerned with this system....thus the planes flying in....some one tell me what a NASA HAWK is going in at 58K feet? upper air sampling? sheesh thats high...the one lat night was around 55k....probably the same aircraft..

[Sanibel]

Maybe we are all gun-shy now after Gaston and this one is the sleeper? Maybe it just needs to touch the west Caribbean like the traditional pattern.

[ROCK]

also add that the current heading of the 92L looks to be right over Jam.....really close to last nights TVCN...might run over the YUC higher up towards the channnel....this looks like its heading a little more North than west...

[Pearl River]

As always...a waiting game!

[CrazyC83]

Wrong storm...this one is not TD13 right now.

[Stratosphere747]

Yeah they have alot of research planes flying around in 92L right now anyway so they have a pretty good idea of whats going on with 92L.

Plenty of plusing but still nothing holding long enough, the negative MJO we currently have is no doubt hurting things combined with general low levels of instablity.

negative shegative....if the MJO mattered so much why is IGOR going to be a major?


it obvoiusly the US is EXTREMELY concerned with this system....thus the planes flying in....some one tell me what a NASA HAWK is going in at 58K feet? upper air sampling? sheesh thats high...the one lat night was around 55k....probably the same aircraft..

The GRIP and PREDICT research missions were scheduled and placed in advance for the height of the hurricane season. There should be nothing read into them flying a particular storm as they just happened to coincide.

The Global Hawk (part of the GRIP mission) flies out of California. 20+ hour mission and investigates the storm for around 5 hours.

[somethingfunny]

Yeah they have alot of research planes flying around in 92L right now anyway so they have a pretty good idea of whats going on with 92L.

Plenty of plusing but still nothing holding long enough, the negative MJO we currently have is no doubt hurting things combined with general low levels of instablity.

negative shegative....if the MJO mattered so much why is IGOR going to be a major?


it obvoiusly the US is EXTREMELY concerned with this system....thus the planes flying in....some one tell me what a NASA HAWK is going in at 58K feet? upper air sampling? sheesh thats high...the one lat night was around 55k....probably the same aircraft..

If I'm not mistaken it's all part of the National Science Foundation grant that was given to the NHC recently. The holy grail of hurricane forecasting is cyclogenesis and intensity forecasting.... whether 92L ever develops into something more or it doesn't, these flights will give scientists a huge amount of data to analyze and figure out WHY 92L did or did not develop.


It's not that the US is so concerned about 92L's potential in particular, but more concerned that we don't get more Code Red busts like some of the Invests with over 100 pages on Storm2K that never developed! ...Or surprises like Humberto and Hermine which blew up out of minor Code Yellows!

[perk]

Rock yesterday i posted my concern on the khou forum that the blocking high may not be in place 7 to 8 days out. Ike taught me a lesson. I've become a skeptic of modeling beyond 72 hours out. Now i'm not advocating that 92L will get far enough north to affect Texas, but i think it,s a little too early to sound the all clear siren.

[wxman57]

.....already hints out there coming in....hmmmm....I do remember saying a ridge wont hold for that long in mid-Sept... ...the ECM been showing this for some time but kept burying it in the BOC....

might have some interesting solutions tonight.....BTW- they are flying a NASA plane in there..that is really interesting as NASA was testing an experimental aircraft over the city yesterday evening..This plane was doing circles after circles...wonder if that is connected.

They're not talking about 92L making landfall in Texas, they're talking of the system moving inland into Mexico and then moisture being drawn northward to Texas. I don't see any indications that 92L will make landfall in Texas. Looks like Tampico or southward, still.

[caneman]

Rock,

.....already hints out there coming in....hmmmm....I do remember saying a ridge wont hold for that long in mid-Sept... ...the ECM been showing this for some time but kept burying it in the BOC.... 'End'

Not sure what the heck you are talking about here. How can say the Euro had it burying it in the BOC and then in the same breath say they also said the ridge won't hold? Further, if any model has been right in the short term. It has been CMC, NOGAPS, NAM and HWRF as the system is now NW of where it was few days ago and all showed solutions North or over Jamaica. Time to take the Euro blinders off.

[emeraldislencguy]

how will the weather at south padre be this week

[Aric Dunn]

Once it clears DR/Haiti it will likely consolidate, looks to me very near the southern coast to me.

[img]http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES14012010255tGxAKl.jpg[/im]

yeah the northerly inflow is being inhibited right now but once it gets slightly farther west it will likely develop. I would watch up towards 17N 75W later tonight and tomorrow. basically follow the larger convective blob at the northern end of the system.

[lrak]

how will the weather at south padre be this week

Hot, no wind, muggy, and partly cloudy. Maybe a quick T shower in the morning along the coast. Lots of Bring SUPER OFF!

[Nimbus]

Still not organized but it is going to be interesting once it does.

[caneman]

I find it some interesting how some people flame the non-Euro models but when they end up being right you'll never hear it. Thus far, in the short term the non-Euro models have been the most correct. Will it change things downstream who knows but I wouldn't rule out Texas. Clearly this thing has gained Latitude.

[Portastorm]

12z guidance per the GFS and NAM are divergent ... NAM much more bullish on development. I'm not laughing off the NAM anymore as it did an excellent job with Hermine. Yes, I know the synoptics and location are different here but I'm just sayin'.

[caneman]

12z guidance per the GFS and NAM are divergent ... NAM much more bullish on development. I'm not laughing off the NAM anymore as it did an excellent job with Hermine. Yes, I know the synoptics and location are different here but I'm just sayin'.

Agreed, the much maligned NAM has done well. Sniffed this one out too.