ATL: IGOR - Models
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models
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We also have to remember that the Euro had a doomsday scenario for Florida with Fiona while all of the other models had it recurving in the shadow of Earl and staying weak, and we all know what happened there.
The Euro may be the "most reliable" but it's definitely not the be-all, end-all of models.
The Euro may be the "most reliable" but it's definitely not the be-all, end-all of models.
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- hurricanetrack
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Well, let's see, over a week out and it gets (the Euro) Igor to roughly 71W and 32N just 24 hours after showing Igor at 60W and 35N. That's an 11 degree west jump in longitude in 24 hours. Not to mention that the forecast is for 192 hours from now. Let's just say for the sake of argument that the ECMWF adds another 6 degrees of longitude between now and one week from tonight to this run. I believe a lot of people would be quite concerned about that.
As far as what happened with Fiona, it has been my observations over the years that once the Euro has locked in on a hurricane, it does a really good job from there on out. Fiona never was a hurricane for the Euro to lock in on and we saw the resulting fantasy that it kept spitting out.
This shift west makes sense- we are getting later in to the season with higher pressures building over the NW Atlantic. The pattern looks to shift in to even higher pressures as we get towards the end of the month so if this is what the Euro is predicting for 192 hours out based on tonight's data- I can only imagine what it will be predicting in 72 hours.
These are just my thoughts and not any kind of forecast- it could all shift back east by the 12Z run tomorrow, allowing us all a collective "phew" until the next swing back west
As far as what happened with Fiona, it has been my observations over the years that once the Euro has locked in on a hurricane, it does a really good job from there on out. Fiona never was a hurricane for the Euro to lock in on and we saw the resulting fantasy that it kept spitting out.
This shift west makes sense- we are getting later in to the season with higher pressures building over the NW Atlantic. The pattern looks to shift in to even higher pressures as we get towards the end of the month so if this is what the Euro is predicting for 192 hours out based on tonight's data- I can only imagine what it will be predicting in 72 hours.
These are just my thoughts and not any kind of forecast- it could all shift back east by the 12Z run tomorrow, allowing us all a collective "phew" until the next swing back west
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ECM is quite some ways west of the GFS which keeps on curving it out near 65W and coming very near Bermuda. We will see what happens in that respect but I fully expect the westward shift to continue...
The CMC looks broadly similar to the ECM with it reaching about 70W before curving out and it seems realistic enough for now...
The CMC looks broadly similar to the ECM with it reaching about 70W before curving out and it seems realistic enough for now...
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models
12z Tropical Models Suite
Code: Select all
561
WHXX01 KWBC 121235
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC SUN SEP 12 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100912 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100912 1200 100913 0000 100913 1200 100914 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 44.9W 18.7N 47.2W 19.6N 49.9W 20.1N 52.7W
BAMD 17.7N 44.9W 18.2N 47.1W 18.8N 49.1W 19.7N 50.9W
BAMM 17.7N 44.9W 18.4N 47.2W 19.0N 49.5W 19.5N 51.5W
LBAR 17.7N 44.9W 18.4N 47.2W 18.9N 49.5W 19.7N 51.8W
SHIP 85KTS 96KTS 106KTS 113KTS
DSHP 85KTS 96KTS 106KTS 113KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100914 1200 100915 1200 100916 1200 100917 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.2N 55.1W 20.6N 57.5W 23.2N 58.5W 26.8N 61.6W
BAMD 20.5N 52.7W 22.5N 56.2W 24.8N 59.2W 27.6N 62.3W
BAMM 19.9N 53.3W 21.7N 55.6W 24.7N 58.3W 27.7N 61.9W
LBAR 20.5N 54.2W 22.1N 58.0W 24.7N 61.4W 27.9N 63.6W
SHIP 119KTS 130KTS 131KTS 122KTS
DSHP 119KTS 130KTS 131KTS 122KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.7N LONCUR = 44.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 41.9W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 38.7W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 975MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 80NM RD34NW = 120NM
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Its exceptionally rare to get a cat-5 out in the Central Atlantic, I think ther ehave been 3 and all came in the 50s and I think may have justified by recon, which often way overdid winds in the 50s and early 60s of some storms...but then again who knows it does have good conditions aloft!
Edit-oh and Isabel probably would count as well...
Edit-oh and Isabel probably would count as well...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- brunota2003
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Re:
KWT wrote:Its exceptionally rare to get a cat-5 out in the Central Atlantic, I think ther ehave been 3 and all came in the 50s and I think may have justified by recon, which often way overdid winds in the 50s and early 60s of some storms...but then again who knows it does have good conditions aloft!
Edit-oh and Isabel probably would count as well...
Why are they so rare? Is it mostly because the water temperatures are not warm enough, too much dry air, shear? Obviously there is no gulf stream to really ramp up a storm like with Katrina or Rita.
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Re: Re:
hurricaneCW wrote:KWT wrote:Its exceptionally rare to get a cat-5 out in the Central Atlantic, I think ther ehave been 3 and all came in the 50s and I think may have justified by recon, which often way overdid winds in the 50s and early 60s of some storms...but then again who knows it does have good conditions aloft!
Edit-oh and Isabel probably would count as well...
Why are they so rare? Is it mostly because the water temperatures are not warm enough, too much dry air, shear? Obviously there is no gulf stream to really ramp up a storm like with Katrina or Rita.
Combination of all the factors I believe.
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BigA wrote:shah8 wrote:12z cmc is sit-down scary.
12Z Canadian: "I'll take the rebuilt subtropical ridge for 150(mph), Alex."
Yeah, that is a scary solution. I'm eager to see how HWRF, GFDL, UKMET and ECMWF weigh in.
Is the post-hr144 graphic available?
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Re: Re:
Riptide wrote:BigA wrote:shah8 wrote:12z cmc is sit-down scary.
12Z Canadian: "I'll take the rebuilt subtropical ridge for 150(mph), Alex."
Yeah, that is a scary solution. I'm eager to see how HWRF, GFDL, UKMET and ECMWF weigh in.
Is the post-hr144 graphic available?
I don't think for the 12Z run, but I could be wrong.
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The only other model I think might do a similar solution would be the nogaps come the 00z. it has consistently been farther south and more west every run. although it recurves it ... it does build a stronger ridge to the north filing the gap some. The reason I think it might eventually switch to a more west track is simply because it has a un-realistic right angle turn very near the islands which is where the CMC turns it back wnw rather than recurve. could be interesting... there are just so many factors still at play if 92L gets stronger than it may push on the eastern US ridge forcing/ squeezing it farther east over the western atlantic which could flatten out the trough and keep the 500mb ridge more in place. similar to the CMC.
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:The only other model I think might do a similar solution would be the nogaps come the 00z. it has consistently been farther south and more west every run. although it recurves it ... it does build a stronger ridge to the north filing the gap some. The reason I think it might eventually switch to a more west track is simply because it has a un-realistic right angle turn very near the islands which is where the CMC turns it back wnw rather than recurve. could be interesting... there are just so many factors still at play if 92L gets stronger than it may push on the eastern US ridge forcing/ squeezing it farther east over the western atlantic which could flatten out the trough and keep the 500mb ridge more in place. similar to the CMC.
Actually the 12Z nogaps does bend it WNW again not as early as the CMC since the Nogaps is faster initially but still is a interesting couple runs. The Nogaps rather scary for NE.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
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