ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[KWT]

It certainly might not be far off cat-5 once all is said and done, 130kts IMO is more then possible...

Amazing RI, first of the season....and a very impressive looking storm!

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 121823
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
130 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE UW-CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
INDICATE THAT IGOR HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THE VISIBLE AND BD-CURVE INFRARED
ENHANCEMENT PICTURES REVEAL A CLEAR 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE WITH A
SURROUNDING INTENSE INNER CORE RING OF -80 DEGREE CELSIUS CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO
INDICATE SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND
THEN SHOWS A SLIGHT DECREASE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. ALSO...FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING THE TIMING OF THESE CYCLES.

THE WIND RADII FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1830Z 17.7N 46.1W 115 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 17.8N 47.5W 125 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 49.8W 125 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 18.4N 51.8W 125 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 19.0N 53.6W 130 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 20.7N 56.7W 130 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 22.6N 59.6W 125 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 24.5N 62.5W 125 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[Macrocane]

Even if Igor doesn't affect land (still a possibility) it will be remembered as a formidable hurricane, and to think that only a month ago people were calling this season a bust.

[CrazyC83]

Dr. Frankenstein has REALLY gone mad with his orders...especially if this becomes a Category 5.

[JDawg1259]

WOW! this thing has turned into a beast overnight! hopefully this storm doesn't affect anyone anytime soon...

[brunota2003]

So true, you would need T7.0 across the board pretty much, or at least one agency having a T7.5. Isabel was the last storm upgraded to Cat 5 with no Recon in the Atlantic.

Well, at the rate the T #'s from the SSD are going, they still won't show Igor as a Cat 4 before he starts weakening! The latest #s (1745 UTC) show Igor at 5.5/5.5, or 102 knots (117 mph). What do the numbers from ADT show and how often do those come out to play? I don't have a link for those.

[CrazyC83]

So true, you would need T7.0 across the board pretty much, or at least one agency having a T7.5. Isabel was the last storm upgraded to Cat 5 with no Recon in the Atlantic.

Well, at the rate the T #'s from the SSD are going, they still won't show Igor as a Cat 4 before he starts weakening! The latest #s (1745 UTC) show Igor at 5.5/5.5, or 102 knots (117 mph). What do the numbers from ADT show and how often do those come out to play? I don't have a link for those.

ADT is T6.2 (Raw 6.5) right now. That supports a 120 kt intensity. Given that Igor is bombing faster than Dvorak constraints allow, that is probably a more reasonable intensity.

[cycloneye]

So true, you would need T7.0 across the board pretty much, or at least one agency having a T7.5. Isabel was the last storm upgraded to Cat 5 with no Recon in the Atlantic.

Well, at the rate the T #'s from the SSD are going, they still won't show Igor as a Cat 4 before he starts weakening! The latest #s (1745 UTC) show Igor at 5.5/5.5, or 102 knots (117 mph). What do the numbers from ADT show and how often do those come out to play? I don't have a link for those.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt11L.html

[brunota2003]

They need times where they can take the constraints off for systems such as this.

And thanks, cycloneye!

[Tstormwatcher]

The eye has really cleared out nicely. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

[I-wall]

Cat 5 this evening I would think...

Possibly, but it takes something special for them to upgrade to cat 5 without recon.

If a ring of -80 C cloud tops surrounds the eye, i'd expect an upgrade to cat 5. So far, it doesnt looks like that's going to happen, at least in the short term.

[chrisjslucia]

So smiles all around please as a Cat 5 storm is sooo close. Time for all you met people to make sure all of us god / nature / fearing amateur people are well advised as to what this beast is going to do. I'm here longing for the Recurve Choir to start singing loud!

[Macrocane]

If Igor becomes a cat 5 I hope it joins Dog, Cleo and Easy on the list of cat 5's that have avoided land, in that case we can enjoy the beauty of a category 5 without worrying.

[brunota2003]

So true, you would need T7.0 across the board pretty much, or at least one agency having a T7.5. Isabel was the last storm upgraded to Cat 5 with no Recon in the Atlantic.

Well, at the rate the T #'s from the SSD are going, they still won't show Igor as a Cat 4 before he starts weakening! The latest #s (1745 UTC) show Igor at 5.5/5.5, or 102 knots (117 mph). What do the numbers from ADT show and how often do those come out to play? I don't have a link for those.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt11L.html

Here we go, from your link I managed to track down the link to the main ADT page (where you can get to any storms now or in the future):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... t/adt.html

Latest ADT is 122 knots.

[TheBurn]

[KWT]

We almost certainly will get recon in this at some point given the expected track will at the very least take it close to Bermuda, its just how soon we get recon in there thats the issue.

At the very least this one is clearly going to be a very long lasting major hurricane possibly like Luis at least in terms of how long and strong it is...probably is the real 'big one' of the CV season.

Still has a little work to do IMO but clearly an impressive category-4 hurricane right now...and amazing to think this was a 70kts hurricane earlier today, thats real RI!

[Buck]

What a beautiful system. This RI reminds me of Felix.

[Ptarmigan]

I am not surprised by it. I think Igor has a good shot at becoming a Category 5 hurricane.

[cyclonic chronic]

was felix the last cat 5 in the atl?

[Macrocane]

was felix the last cat 5 in the atl?

Yep, but that could change soon if Igor's trend continues.