ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[KWT]

Yep I believe it was CC, though Gustav was very close to becoming a 5 in the Caribbean before Cuba.

I'm not sure this one will make it to a 5, even with very condusive conditions they are very rare in this part of the basin, but no doubts IMO this one gets upto 125-130kts and it can't be ruled out that a 5 will form from this one...esp with heat content much higher then normal in this part of the basin.

[RL3AO]

Does anyone know what the farthest east Atlantic cat 5 is?

[HurrikaneBryce]

Does anyone know what the farthest east Atlantic cat 5 is?

I think it was Isabel, but I could be wrong.

[stormhunter7]

If they would only move the floater on GOES-15 to igor (i know its in test mode), pretty sure it would have been remarkable imagery today!-

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=600


**side note... if you want to see some amazing imagery from the new sat. (GOES-15) from earl and have a high speed connection... go here***

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-p/

[Just Joshing You]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2010 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 17:40:07 N Lon : 46:12:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 939.6mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : +15.7C Cloud Region Temp : -68.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************



Raw T-numbers are coming down.

[emeraldislencguy]

what are the implications ( if any) and a stronger storm and a trough

[CrazyC83]

Based on the latest ADT numbers (since other T-numbers are constrained too much at this point), I would go 125 kt for the intensity at 5 pm.

[Shuriken]

I asked for a big, photogenic annular hurricane (like Isabel) last night, and it looks like I'm going to get one.

[KatDaddy]

Igor is now a powerhouse and I would not be surprised to see a CAT 5. Thankfully Igor is throwing fish everywhere and not homes.

[hurricaneCW]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/isabel_2003.html

Here lies Category 5 Isabel, obviously Igor still has some work to do.

[KWT]

Yeah Crazy 120-125kts seems reasonable based on what we are seeing from this system right now...

[HurricaneStriker]

You never know, Igor could be the next Isabel.

[HurricaneStriker]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=11L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

Something is obviously wrong with the track forecast.
Click the 8 km button and reveal what's wrong with the forecast.

[Cookie]

wow this hurricane is beautiful

[neospaceblue]

You never know, Igor could be the next Isabel.

I hope not. The last thing I need is for my senior year of high school to come to a halt because of a hurricane named after a character from Frankenstein.

[HurricaneStriker]

Does anyone know what the farthest east Atlantic cat 5 is?

Hurricane Cleo, that was back in 1958. It became a 5 at 49.1 W
The last advisory put Igor at 46.1W, if it becomes a Category 5 in a hurry, it could very well steal that record.

[Shuriken]

cmc 2010091212 is bullish on a cat-5-looking Isabel track into, apparently, the US southeast, as WNW movement resumes after a brief NW jog: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[weatherwindow]

Does anyone know what the farthest east Atlantic cat 5 is?

I think it was Isabel, but I could be wrong.

looking at the archive, isabel it is...isbel was also totally sat derived ...t#s 7.0 7.0 7.0 tafb, sab, afwa =cat 5......sorry missed cleo

[hurricanefloyd5]

this from DR.jeff masters: Igor
Hurricane Igor appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to drop below 5 knots for the next five days. Waters are warm, 28°C, and will warm to 29°C by Wednesday. Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor is undergoing a period of rapid intensification today, and will probably be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Monday.

The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor will move west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next 2 - 3 days, then turn more to the west-northwest then northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and does have a small chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 15% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the period 5 - 12 days from now from the ECMWF and GFS models shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. Recent runs of the ECMWF model indicate that these troughs may not be as intense as previously thought, so it is possible Igor has a higher chance than usual to hit land than climatology suggests. One wild card may be the possible development of TD 12 behind Igor. If TD 12 develops into a hurricane, and moves close to Igor, as some of the models are suggesting, the two hurricanes could rotate around a common center, forcing Igor more towards the coast of the U.S. The long term fate of Igor is difficult to predict at this point.

[SoupBone]

What's the elevation of Bermuda? I would imagine a Cat 5 would devastate the island...