ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[ndale]

wxman 57, you said they are talking about moisture being drawn into Texas, is that likely, are we looking at more rain like Hermine?

[ColinDelia]

Vorticity looks a little better at 700 mb than 850 mb right now.

Be interesting to see what those research missions find.

[lrak]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

looking good and a bit north of the models?

[ROCK]

Rock,

.....already hints out there coming in....hmmmm....I do remember saying a ridge wont hold for that long in mid-Sept... ...the ECM been showing this for some time but kept burying it in the BOC.... 'End'

Not sure what the heck you are talking about here. How can say the Euro had it burying it in the BOC and then in the same breath say they also said the ridge won't hold? Further, if any model has been right in the short term. It has been CMC, NOGAPS, NAM and HWRF as the system is now NW of where it was few days ago and all showed solutions North or over Jamaica. Time to take the Euro blinders off.

Dude, the ECM was showing little ridging but still burying this in the BOC a few runs ago....what the heck are you saying. I have been watching every ECM run for days.
No blinders here bro....if you trust the NAM and NoGAPS for your tropical guidance then so be it. Good luck with that..

[Aric Dunn]

I can tell you that if we get a more substantial system sooner rather than later it will go more right. but not as far as Texas. there is presently a weakness to its NNW and if it were to organize rapidly it would probably move more NW for a day or so before the ridge builds in turning it West and accelerating. so instead of the southern Yucatan it would be the northern part. Its is highly unlikely that 92L or what may develop will get close enough to Texas for even watches. At least that is what its looking like right now. I presently have it heading anywhere from Veracruz to Tampico

[srainhoutx]

Latest microwave pass looked encouraging regarding development. We will need to watch this one very carefully IMO.

[hurricaneCW]

It still looks like a bunch of linear type convection, there appears to be some slight turning but nothing too noticeable. The convection will probably die down yet again later today.

[emeraldislencguy]

still stays at 50% at 2 pm

[Boriken]

This may turn deadly. Right know I see lots of rain in DR and could persist towars Haiti.
Hope for the best.

[Sanibel]

The convection is busting open into a wave axis.


Center near 16N-72.5W

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 92, 2010091218, , BEST, 0, 158N, 721W, 25, 1007, DB

[Weatherfreak000]

Bursting nicely today...I think it may actually have a shot this time around. We will see. Consensus model looking good now as this may thread the needle between Jamaica

[KWT]

Its looking better but its still blowing up and losing convection again too rapidly and that never helps to get something going.

I suspect get this one close to Jamaica and we'll see it start to develop, if it does finally overcome the hurdle thats stopping it it'll have time to get to hurricane strength IMO before the Yucatan but right now I'm still not that impressed by it, 50% looks reasonable. Overall I'd expect say 75-80% of development at some point...

I'd say even if it doesn't make it before the Yucatan, the BoC has been very favourable this year so I'd expect development there into Karl.

ps, is this the same NAM that had a storm east of PR from this???
hmmmmm....

[caneman]

Dude, the ECM was showing little ridging but still burying this in the BOC a few runs ago....what the heck are you saying. I have been watching every ECM run for days.
No blinders here bro....if you trust the NAM and NoGAPS for your tropical guidance then so be it. Good luck with that..[/quote]

Watching the Euro for days? Thanks for helping to make my point. Spending a little too much time watching the Euro? GFS doesn't even develop it which at ths point is just as likely. Other models have it going over Jamaica or North of it which at this point is just a as likely as much of it has shifted North. Please explain to me how the Euro has been accurate thus far? For that matter, how about some proof that it has been the best performing models this year so far? Otherwise, it's just unneeded hype and inaccurate info.

[Wx_Warrior]

Models wars on the discussion page? Must be a boring hurricane season.

Do you guys ever go back and read previous pages?

My favorite comment on this thread was: "If this doesn't develop but Thursday, write it off..." Then it was Friday, Saturday, Sunday and so forth.

[KWT]

The ECM has done alot better then the CMC/GFDL/HWRF/NAM all of which had it hitting either PR or DR...and neither has occured...

The ECM track thus far has been *spot on*...to moan about it is foolish IMO of course!

Anyway it does still look a little linear IMO but another few bursts and alo movement into the W.cAribbean may well be enough to finally get this one off to the races it seems. Interesting to see quite a few of the WRF ensemble members develop this into a system and a decent strength system at that.

[srainhoutx]

Time to get back on track with 92L discussions.

[Aric Dunn]

The ECM has done alot better then the CMC/GFDL/HWRF/NAM all of which had it hitting either PR or DR...and neither has occured...

The ECM track thus far has been *spot on*...to moan about it is foolish IMO of course!

Anyway it does still look a little linear IMO but another few bursts and alo movement into the W.cAribbean may well be enough to finally get this one off to the races it seems. Interesting to see quite a few of the WRF ensemble members develop this into a system and a decent strength system at that.

its actually well north of the original Euro forecast which had it running very near South America.. the original models runs that went farther north developed it faster which allowed the weakness that is still present north of the system to turn it and go over or just north of islands. the NAM still has done the best ( hard thing to say) along with the HWRF ( although it been erratic ).

besides that... there does appear to be a LLC trying to develop on the north side of the wave axis..

[Wx_Warrior]

For several runs NAM had it north of the islands! Just the last few runs did it initiate further south....

[KWT]

Yeah and I'm sorry to take this off topic again, if you want mods maybe an idea to move the last few posts into the model thread?

Anyway the NAM obviously has done a poor job, the HWRF was in the SE Bahamas by this point for a good 8-12 runs of the model, both have been MUCH poorer then the ECM...honestly I've watched every set of models coming out for 92L and the eCM has over and over and over again shown a track west then WNW towards Jamaica and then into the Yucatan, its not budged once from that solution...never was it near SA at least since its been an invest!