ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[HurricaneStriker]

The forecast models say that TD 12 is going to get catapulted northwest, but you can never tell.

[cyclonic chronic]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg

is that my eyes or do those look like the begining of mesovortices in the eye?

[AdamFirst]

Boom goes the dynamite...here I am watching football and Igor absolutely explodes. What a monster. Got a long way to go too.

[HurricaneStriker]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg

is that my eyes or do those look like the begining of mesovortices in the eye?

It looks like it. You can see a better view you click the "VIS (1km)" button at the top of this page: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=11L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

[plasticup]

What's the elevation of Bermuda? I would imagine a Cat 5 would devastate the island...

It varies, but there are no significant low-lying areas that would be inundated like the Cayman Islands or something. Or course, the flip-side is that elevation comes with stronger winds. The island survived Fabian (Cat 4) a few years ago.

[blazess556]

Up to 140 mph as of 5 pm advisory.

[HurricaneStriker]

Truly phonomenal.

[HurricaneStriker]

Pressure down 8 mbar to 942 mbar to tie Danielle's lowest pressure reading.

[plasticup]

What a crazy day...

[artist]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.

[HurricaneStriker]

Take a look at this:
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X X 1
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 1 1
TROPICAL STORM X X X 1 2 5 13
HURRICANE 99 99 99 99 98 94 85
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 1 2 3 6 17 30
HUR CAT 2 1 4 5 10 13 21 23
HUR CAT 3 12 35 27 34 33 34 22
HUR CAT 4 80 52 53 40 34 19 8
HUR CAT 5 7 8 14 14 12 4 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 125KT 125KT 130KT 130KT 135KT 125KT 120KT

At 18Z in 72 hours - 135 KT/155 mph. Category 5 seems possible.

[plasticup]

I would love to see a recon.

[Shuriken]

(Time-sensitive imagery; watch it fast as the sun is setting.)

Isabel-like eye vortices now apparent: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[emeraldislencguy]

would the circulation on td 12 have any effect on igor on friday or saturday of this week

[RL3AO]

These cat 4 forecasts always interest me. If its going to get to 135kts, it would most likely do it in the next 12 to 24 hours, not in 72 hours.

[Gustywind]

(V)IGOROUS east of the Lesser Antilles . Let's continue to monitor carefully Igor even if it should begin to turn wnw Tuesday.

[HurricaneStriker]

(Time-sensitive imagery; watch it fast as the sun is setting.)

Isabel-like eye vortices now apparent: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

I sure can see a star fish.

[RL3AO]

would the circulation on td 12 have any effect on igor on friday or saturday of this week

12L will need to be at least a strong TS to have any impact on Igor. All Igor would do to a weak system if it got near it would be to eat it.

[hurricanefloyd5]

would the circulation on td 12 have any effect on igor on friday or saturday of this week

12L will need to be at least a strong TS to have any impact on Igor. All Igor would do to a weak system if it got near it would be to eat it.

by DR. Jeff Masters
One wild card may be the possible development of TD 12 behind Igor. If TD 12 develops into a hurricane, and moves close to Igor, as some of the models are suggesting, the two hurricanes could rotate around a common center, forcing Igor more towards the coast of the U.S. The long term fate of Igor is difficult to predict at this point.

[TheBurn]