ATL: JULIA - Ex-TC - Discussion

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 21.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO..SAO
TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA.

[cycloneye]

[somethingfunny]

So the NHC forecast shows a Category One hurricane within 48 hours. That's much more aggressive than they were with Igor this far east. This could intensify more quickly than forecast and become a real threat to the Cape Verde Islands.... luckily Twelve/Julia (this will become Julia) is also farther south than Igor was and doesn't have the strange wave interaction to pull it farther north....and this should slide past the islands without too large of an impact. I think the watches/warnings were posted mainly out of an abundance of caution after Igor's unexpectedly larger impact.

At least we get Intermediate Advisories now!

PS:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products or your local meteorological service in the Cape Verde Islands.

[CrazyC83]

Is there any chance this could rapidly intensify before Cape Verde?

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 12, 2010091218, , BEST, 0, 131N, 223W, 30, 1006, TD

Still a TD.

[brunota2003]

It is getting close, though. Latest ADT has it at 2.4, or 34 knots.

[KWT]

Yeah it probably isn't far away from being Julia, any ship that came close to 35kts now would probably be enough to get a quick upgrade I'd imagine.

The CV region has been on fire the last few weeks hasn't it...this is a TRUE CV season, maybe the first since 1998/1995?

[TheBurn]

[masaji79]

Wow that is far off to the east. Which storm was named the farthest east ever. I vaguely recall a storm in the sixties or early seventies, Ginger I think that was right off the coast of Africa as well.

[CrazyC83]

Wow that is far off to the east. Which storm was named the farthest east ever. I vaguely recall a storm in the sixties or early seventies, Ginger I think that was right off the coast of Africa as well.

Christine, at like 14W.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 22.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[abajan]

Wind speeds haven’t increased at Sal but the pressure is falling:

[KWT]

I'm quite surprised they haven't upgraded yet but then again the CV Islands are close so they probably are getting good information through about how strong the system is!

Poor old system is getting overlooked by beastly Igor...

[Aquawind]

Ceviche Forecast!!

[cycloneye]

KWT,do you think if TD 12/Julia if it gets to hurricane,may cause Igor to move more west?

[KWT]

I don't think its really going to make a huge deal of difference, by the time they get close enough they'll probably be under the same steering influences anyway taking them NNW/N.

Indeed more of a chance that Igor's large flow will actually help Julia get further west then expected but we will see!

[ozonepete]

In the Igor thread someone posted Dr. Masters' comments that there could be Fujiwhara between the two if Igor slows down and TD12/Julia continues forward at a quick pace as a cat 2, as is currently forecast. In that case TD12/Julia could get within 800nm of Igor and there could be some interaction, with Igor turning more westward (instead of west-northwest or northwest) and TD12/Julia turning more northward.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

TS Julia at 11 PM

AL, 12, 2010091300, , BEST, 0, 133N, 229W, 35, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[brunota2003]

Poor soon to be girl is being ignored...


Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2010 Time : 004500 UTC
Lat : 13:28:26 N Lon : 23:30:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 997.6mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.0 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -57.0C Cloud Region Temp : -49.2C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

I would like to point out, the ADT scene type finally changed from shear to Irregular CDO. Perhaps the start of some modest strengthening and her getting her act together?