ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[dwsqos2]

Well, I am a bit more optimistic today. It has a ways to go, but judging from low-cloud motions there is a bit more convergence there than previously. It also helps that most globals spat out stronger solutions.

[caneman]

its actually well north of the original Euro forecast which had it running very near South America.. the original models runs that went farther north developed it faster which allowed the weakness that is still present north of the system to turn it and go over or just north of islands. the NAM still has done the best ( hard thing to say) along with the HWRF ( although it been erratic ).

besides that... there does appear to be a LLC trying to develop on the north side of the wave axis..[/quote]

Agreed Aric.
Clearly if it does develop it will be in the Northern envelop, Euro may be right in the end but not initially and that is why we use a blend of all models. I'll leave it at that and for the models thread. Thanks for the latitude mods.

[lrak]

Whats that spin just South of SE Haiti?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[BigA]

One big difference from yesterday is that the convection, especially in the nothern part of the axis, is refiring, which indicates more surface convergence and a better chance for a LLC to form. If it does form, it looks like it will be on the northern end of the axis, which would probably lead to a track more on the north side of the guidance envelope, but not so far north that it would cross Cuba; instead, it might head for the northern Yucatan rather than the central Yucatan.

[wxman57]

Could be a weak rotation near 15.9N/73.8W. Appears to be moving westerly.

[lrak]

Could be a weak rotation near 15.9N/73.8W. Appears to be moving westerly.

what about 17.9N/72W? Just middle level?

[KWT]

I see two circulations, a northerly circulation that is probably a MLC from the deep convection and also maybe a weak LLC to the south...I'd imagine like Alex in the W.CAribbean it'll manage to pull itself together in the end, I do think its slowly getting there at the moment.

[lrak]

it appears the northerly circulation has more convection...

[srainhoutx]

Inflow is increasing in just about all quadrants. Could be an interesting night IMO.

[ozonepete]

Could be a weak rotation near 15.9N/73.8W. Appears to be moving westerly.

That's what I see.

[KWT]

Yeah the northern part does look stronger BUT in these situations the LLC almost always wins and I'd imagine thats with the souther circulation right now down at 16N.

We will see, I think development is very likely myself, probably justifies being upped to Code Red again IMO.

[Macrocane]

The convection has lasted longer than the previous days, I agree that tonight could be interesting.

[caneman]

Definietely think if it is going to form it will be in the more Northern quadrant (it looks like the focal point and further, the whole envelope is NW of where it was a couple of days ago). Props are due the Northern models if this bears out!

[Shuriken]

Apologies if already asked, but are there presently any (linkable) working radars in either Haiti or Jamaica?

[KWT]

Definietely think if it is going to form it will be in the more Northern quadrant (it looks like the focal point and further, the whole envelope is NW of where it was a couple of days ago). Props are due the Northern models if this bears out!

Depends on whether it holds convection there or not, there is certainly two regions spinning though and I'm pretty sure I did see some weak turning at the low levels south of the other spin, which would sugges the MLC is the northern mass...and often the MLC will move towards the LLC and stack up or vice versa...but I believe more often then not the LLC will be the focal point...

We will see how this one evolves, I think its slowly getting there but maybe a couple of more bursts needed yet...

[CrazyC83]

The heavy convection is approaching Haiti now...

[KWT]

Yeah hopefully the worst of the convection stays to the south of Haiti because even a big rainstorm is not needed there!

Will be an interesting 24hrs to see if anything can spin up...probably going to have to wait till the W.Caribbean now though.

[cycloneye]

NOAA plane is flying towards 92L.

[KWT]

Thanks Cycloneye, may well help to clear up where the stronger of the two circulations is right now.

[lrak]

NOAA plane is flying towards 92L.

when will they arrive, and are you guys going to use the cool graphic in the recon discussion?
thanks