ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[JonathanBelles]

I dont see the EWRC yet either, but with the eye tightening it could happen over night.

[fasterdisaster]

Igor looks VERY close to Cat 5 now, if anything the 130 kt estimate is a bit conservative now, since it's almost an hour old.

[ozonepete]

I dont see the EWRC yet either, but with the eye tightening it could happen over night.

Thanks, fact789. That's what I meant. I shouldn't have said "underway." Rather this is usually how one starts, with a new completed ring of convection completely encircling the eye. We have to see if this ring narrows in diamater now that is is a closed ring. It is still pretty wide in coverage at the moment.

[Cyclenall]

I'd put it at 130 kt given the data available. I wonder if some agencies will start getting out some T7.0 readings?

Same here, when I first looked at the latest image it screamed 130 knots and probably by now 135 knots. It's very close to category 5 intensity and may become one of the furthest east CAT5's in recorded history. The explosive intensification today was ludicrous .

I'm not surprised at the comparisons to Hurricane Isabel (2003), it is in some ways similar (date, location, path, structure, intensity?).

[CrazyC83]

I'd put it at 130 kt given the data available. I wonder if some agencies will start getting out some T7.0 readings?

Same here, when I first looked at the latest image it screamed 130 knots and probably by now 135 knots. It's very close to category 5 intensity and may become one of the furthest east CAT5's in recorded history. The explosive intensification today was ludicrous .

I'm not surprised at the comparisons to Hurricane Isabel (2003), it is in some ways similar (date, location, path, structure, intensity?).

Now will Igor follow Isabel's tracks all the way?

[cpdaman]

what is the further east longitude that a cat 5 has humming in the atlantic....(46-48)W?

[CrazyC83]

what is the further east longitude that a cat 5 has humming in the atlantic....(46-48)W?

Cleo 1958, around 48W, although I don't think that was a Cat 5 as the 140 kt reading was a 700mb flight level recording (that supports 125 kt at the surface). The farthest east bona fide Cat 5 (at least since 1944) was probably Isabel.

[KWT]

That band on the SE side does look suspect but any EWRC IMO is at least a solid 18hrs away yet and thus is plenty of time for it to get to a 5. I'd go with 130kts as well right now...

Either way its a stunner!

[CrazyC83]

12/2345 UTC 17.6N 47.2W T6.5/6.5 IGOR -- Atlantic

Nothing to support Cat 5 yet.

[Just Joshing You]

I think they go with 125 knots @ 11 PM and Category 5 barring anything insane, in the AM.

[edgeblade]

I'd put it at 130 kt given the data available. I wonder if some agencies will start getting out some T7.0 readings?

Same here, when I first looked at the latest image it screamed 130 knots and probably by now 135 knots. It's very close to category 5 intensity and may become one of the furthest east CAT5's in recorded history. The explosive intensification today was ludicrous .

I'm not surprised at the comparisons to Hurricane Isabel (2003), it is in some ways similar (date, location, path, structure, intensity?).

Now will Igor follow Isabel's tracks all the way?

Man I sure hope not. Isabel did a number on us up here. Don't think this area is ready for another one like her.

[Stephanie]

He went from a CAT 1 to CAT 4 in ONE DAY????

[CrazyC83]

Now will Igor follow Isabel's tracks all the way?

Man I sure hope not. Isabel did a number on us up here. Don't think this area is ready for another one like her.

And especially if Igor is much stronger at that point! Of course it is still VERY early.

[CrazyC83]

He went from a CAT 1 to CAT 4 in ONE DAY????

In only about 9 hours in fact!

[Stephanie]

He went from a CAT 1 to CAT 4 in ONE DAY????

In only about 9 hours in fact!

We were looking at him this morning and saying that he already looked stronger than a 1 with that eye.

[pricetag56]

wats been amazing is how fast this storm has grown. This morning it was only wat a weak cat 1 and now its on the cusp of cat 5. Is this one of the fastest intensifications on record next to hurricane wilma.

[pricetag56]

Wat would a storm of this magnitutde do to a heavily populated low lying area. Would it be 10 times worse than Katrina.

[CrazyC83]

Wat would a storm of this magnitutde do to a heavily populated low lying area. Would it be 10 times worse than Katrina.

Not in its current state. It likely wouldn't have as high a storm surge as the circulation isn't as large - YET. But that should change once it starts going into ERC's. The wind damage would be just scary though.

[cpdaman]

what is the further east longitude that a cat 5 has humming in the atlantic....(46-48)W?

Cleo 1958, around 48W, although I don't think that was a Cat 5 as the 140 kt reading was a 700mb flight level recording (that supports 125 kt at the surface). The farthest east bona fide Cat 5 (at least since 1944) was probably Isabel.

thanks...for the quick response

.isabel holds a special place for me....only because i remember going to the beach in delray florida....and being hypnotized by the swells rolling in (there is a 5 mile channel in the bahamas (new providence channel) in which swell can move thru that are coming in at an angle (plus/minus 5 degrees) of 98 degrees.....the waves had faces of 15 feet at least. and 10 miles south the waves were nearly non-existant.

anyone intersted in the phenomena could look at this paper....which details the weird phenomena.....many boaters were caught off-guard by this 10 mile stretch of coast that had 10-14 foot swells moving thru ...when marine forecasts called for 1-3 foot seas that day.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... -86-8-1065

[edgeblade]

Is this one of the fastest intensifications on record next to hurricane wilma.

Well Wilma dropped 100mb in 30 hours, so far Igor has dropped 50 in 18 hours, so it's intensifying slightly slower than Wilma (based on pressure at least).