ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

AL, 11, 2010091300, , BEST, 0, 177N, 473W, 130, 935, HU, 34, NEQ, 140, 110, 90, 130,

130 kt indeed.

[plasticup]

Wat would a storm of this magnitutde do to a heavily populated low lying area. Would it be 10 times worse than Katrina.

Not in its current state. It likely wouldn't have as high a storm surge as the circulation isn't as large - YET. But that should change once it starts going into ERC's. The wind damage would be just scary though.

Forming so far east, Igor will have the opportunity to build an ENORMOUS surge. Although so far it looks like that surge won't be coming ashore anywhere.

(I know, EC is still possible, but the models are showing recurve)

[cpdaman]

Is this one of the fastest intensifications on record next to hurricane wilma.

Well Wilma dropped 100mb in 30 hours, so far Igor has dropped 50 in 18 hours, so it's intensifying slightly slower than Wilma (based on pressure at least).

as far as fastest one day intensifications go...i can't imagine anyone touching WILMA.....that thing looked like it was grown in a lab....it grew into a enormous blob of deep convection with a tiny (2 mile) pin-hole eye....it looked like it belonged on another planet for about 18 hours. then she blew thru my neighborhood .....after the day before forecasts were calling for a strong tS to be the most likey scenario....(we got solid cat 2 winds) which are very sobering.

[plasticup]

AL, 11, 2010091300, , BEST, 0, 177N, 473W, 130, 935, HU, 34, NEQ, 140, 110, 90, 130,

130 kt indeed.

Almost there...

[hurricaneCW]

The eye does appear to be contracting on satellite, but there is a nice ring of red around the eye. An EWRC will probably begin overnight and end sometime later tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

Strongest hurricane this season and strongest since Hurricane Gustav in 2008.

[sponger]

Sure looking like its making a run for a cat 5. Especially if you forget how rare they are anywhere and the location of Igor.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Stephanie]

He looks like a little monster...

[mf_dolphin]

The eye does appear to be contracting on satellite, but there is a nice ring of red around the eye. An EWRC will probably begin overnight and end sometime later tomorrow.

Since there's absolutely no evidence I can see of a second eyewall forming I take that your statement is just a guess.

[CrazyC83]

Strongest hurricane this season and strongest since Hurricane Gustav in 2008.

Based on wind speed that is correct. (On pressure, Earl was 928 so he is still the actual most intense)

[CrazyC83]

Is this one of the fastest intensifications on record next to hurricane wilma.

Well Wilma dropped 100mb in 30 hours, so far Igor has dropped 50 in 18 hours, so it's intensifying slightly slower than Wilma (based on pressure at least).

Remember the pressures of Igor are pure estimates, not actual measurements. With Wilma, they were Recon-confirmed.

[Tropics Guy]

A little wobble towards the WSW in the last few frames, I wonder how this will affect the models down the road?

TG

[HURAKAN]

Strongest hurricane this season and strongest since Hurricane Gustav in 2008.

Based on wind speed that is correct. (On pressure, Earl was 928 so he is still the actual most intense)

Yes, solely on winds.

[plasticup]

A little wobble towards the WSW in the last few frames, I wonder how this will affect the models down the road?

TG

Not at all.

[AtlanticWind]

A little wobble towards the WSW in the last few frames, I wonder how this will affect the models down the road?

TG

Wobbles wont affect the models, but that being said awestward shift in the models would not be a surprise.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

The eye does appear to be contracting on satellite, but there is a nice ring of red around the eye. An EWRC will probably begin overnight and end sometime later tomorrow.

There's nothing to indicate a ERC will be starting any time soon. Hurricanes should have a intense ring of convection around the eye. In-fact a-lot of the most intense Hurricanes will have a solid intense ring of convection more then -80c around the eye. In the ssd IR loops -80c convection is represented as black. So far we have not seen that with Igor.

[abajan]

A little wobble towards the WSW in the last few frames, I wonder how this will affect the models down the road?

TG

I doubt it. The wobble is just that and the track pretty much remains unchanged.

[hurricaneCW]

The contracting of the eye indicates an EWRC but I was contradicting that fact with the one that he has a nice ring of red around the center. I know it has yet to begin an EWRC but I'm pretty sure he's not that far off from reaching his peak or at least the strengthening phase.

[plasticup]

I know folks laughed earlier, but SHIPS agrees that Igor has become marginally annular:

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/13/10 00 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY