ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[cycloneye]

NOAA plane is flying towards 92L.

when will they arrive, and are you guys going to use the cool graphic in the recon discussion?
thanks

HURAKAN is posting them there.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1065 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE...LOCATED ABOUT 140
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AIRCRAFT DATA FROM NOAA AND NASA RESEARCH MISSIONS WITHIN THE AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SUGGEST THAT
THE SYSTEM MAY NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE IS STILL PRODUCING A LARGE AND
DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD CAUSE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...THAT
THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[BigA]

Convection maintaining itself better than last night on the northern end of the axis, models have shifted a bit north, toward northern Yucatan...

I expect a good chance for some major forward progress tomorrow, as this moves into the historically favorable Western Caribbean.

[Nimbus]

Looking at the outflow in the WV imagery it appears to be under building high pressure. If it develops near the western edge of the high into a deep stacked system it would track further north. Most of the pro mets haven't given 92L favorable chances of development into a hurricane though.

[wxman57]

The problem with 92L may be sinking air. Check out the current map. High pressure aloft over the Gulf/Caribbean may be resulting in too much sinking air for 92L to develop. But look at the forecast for the next few weeks.

[ROCK]

looks like weak LLC at 16.5N and 75W....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

[HURAKAN]

weak, but west winds found

[Sanibel]

This reminds me of Alex when it had trouble developing across the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

Lots of sinking air here. My forecast for this system seems on track. Should be inland into Mexico ultimately.

[ROCK]

Lots of sinking air here. My forecast for this system seems on track. Should be inland into Mexico ultimately.

yeah it should hit the Yucatan....

[Florida1118]

Poor Yucitanians. Lot of rain this year for them.

[ROCK]

if they found west wind then a LLC is trying to form or already has a weak one at the surface...interesting to see that tonight the convection although weak has persisted when every other night it had all but dissipated...I think tomorrow will be the day it takes off...if it maintains over night...

[gatorcane]

Code yellow tomorrow. It looks very disorganized and convection is on the decrease.

[Wx_Warrior]

Rock,

Do not make me revoke your EURO card.

[South Texas Storms]

im still thinking this one has a good chance to develop. i also think it even has a chance to make another landfall near the tex/mx border.

[Florida1118]

Code yellow tomorrow. It looks very disorganized and convection is on the decrease.

It still has Time and good conditions but Im not going to Defend him.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[ROCK]

Rock,

Do not make me revoke your EURO card.

please....I have EURO blinders on remember...

[BigA]

Assuming that the above map is a bit old, the vorticity lines up pretty well with the convective maximum. I bet if we get a burst tomorrow morning, there is a good chance for an LLC to consolidate. It's certainly what a lot of the models have been showing.

[stormhunter7]

If the models dont have good data in them tonight... then something is wrong.. Huge Data set on 92L was taken today. From 60kft to 10kft