ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[plasticup]

Definitely see the eye contraction. Typical of intensification or EWRC - but in this case I won't weigh in on which!

[gatorcane]

If Igor doesn't gain any latitude by 55W, then there's some cause for concern. Eye appears to be contracting even more now.

I have little concern. As wxman mentions it will start to move more west northwest. Models are not going to be wrong. There is clearly a weakness.

[terrapintransit]

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html


wow it really did dive to the south just a bit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[plasticup]

If Igor doesn't gain any latitude by 55W, then there's some cause for concern. Eye appears to be contracting even more now.

I have little concern. As wxman mentions it will start to move more west northwest. models are not going to be wrong. There is clearly a weakness.

1200 CMC disagrees. It shows Igor missing the weakness and continuing west towards the Bahamas. Personally, I see the recurve scenario playing out, but the models are not unanimous:

[Scorpion]

If Igor doesn't gain any latitude by 55W, then there's some cause for concern. Eye appears to be contracting even more now.

I have little concern. As wxman mentions it will start to move more west northwest. Models are not going to be wrong. There is clearly a weakness.

Keep leaning on the models.. what happens when its at 60 W and still trucking west

[sponger]

I do love the model runs. Its like those doomsday scenario's on discovery. That being said, it is way to early to say a recurve is a given. Earl had much more support based on evolving synoptics. This one is way to soon to call.

[plasticup]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html


wow it really did dive to the south just a bit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

wobble wobble wobble wobble

[mf_dolphin]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html


wow it really did dive to the south just a bit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Igor is a little south of the points but well within the wobble factor

[dexterlabio]

I'll be leaning on the models if they become unanimous.

[plasticup]

I do love the model runs. Its like those doomsday scenario's on discovery. That being said, it is way to early to say a recurve is a given. Earl had much more support based on evolving synoptics. This one is way to soon to call.

Oh, for sure. GFDL is so bull-ish right now, every run on every invest evolves into a Cat3+.

[Sanibel]

The 2010 hot spot was CV trackers north of the Antilles.

[ozonepete]

Just a reminder: The 4 and 5 day track forecasts have an average of 200-300 miles error.

[hurricaneCW]

Impressive hurricane I must say. Just about a zero chance of reaching the united states given the strong models consensus. It doesn't matter if it is a cat 10 it is not making it through that trough.

Giving this a zero chance of reaching the U.S. when there are models that disagree, when there is a possibility of it missing the weakness, is way too low. I agree that the chance is very low but it's certainly not 0%.

[Florida1118]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 130243
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
0300 UTC MON SEP 13 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 47.8W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 55SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 60SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 47.8W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 47.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.8N 49.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 105SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.2N 51.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 53.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.8N 54.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 165SE 135SW 165NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 22.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 165SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 24.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 27.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 47.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[ozonepete]

My point is that no evidence was offered other than the eye has slightly shrunk to support that an ERC would start tonight and be completed tomorrow. While I fully expect Igor to undergo an ERC at some point, right now I just don't see it starting to happen. The core looks extremely intense and very stable with no indication I've seen of a secondary eyewall even starting to form.

What you are missing and what everyone else is saying is that a new convective band DID develop around the eye this evening (the ring of red around the original eye.) That is step 1 in the process of ERC. Step 2 is that the original eyewall starts contracting. That appears to be occurring. So step 1 happened and step 2 is occurring...

[neospaceblue]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATION IN
INTENSITY IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

Don't see that too often.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'll be leaning on the models if they become unanimous.

Yea, I don't think Igor has even a remote chance to affect the US. It's not as if there's a solid high pressure ridge parked north of it extending out to the east coast.....I guess the only question is where and when exactly it will make the turn, as opposed to IF.

[Florida1118]

150mph. So close...

[sponger]

Wow! Gusts to 160. Good call keeping it at a strong 4. Likely the peak for now but the 5 am should be interesting!