Pouch PGI45L - SW of CV Islands - (Is invest 94L)

[HURAKAN]

latest

[ConvergenceZone]

yep, looks like finally a system that may effect the USA, long term....You figure that sooner or later a CV storm will make it through, based upon the larger number of cv storms we are having this year.

[IvanSurvivor]

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, look at the size of that wave compared to Igor....That thing is HUGE!

[RL3AO]

What the...its already got outflow going for it. At this pace it will have an eye south of Dakar.

[RachelAnna]

Wow! This thing is looking VERY good--and it's still over land. Just hope we're all lucky and it makes for good storm watching without affecting the masses too terribly bad. I know we'll have our eyes wide open in the Gulf with this one, as will everyone else! Should be a lot of fun (you know, for those who love watching storms develop!) to watch it really get going, though.

[cycloneye]

A closer look. This image updates every 15 minutes.

[RachelAnna]

When should we see this monster all the way out over water? Seems to be moving reasonably fast.

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS still on it..starting to pull north

[Stormcenter]

Wait a minute are we talking about a model prediction that is suppose
to happen 17 days from now?!!?!?!?!?!?!? Come on now we can't even get the models to get something
5 days away right. I think I'll stick to picking the Lotto numbers. I have better chance doing that then
the models.

[Ivanhater]

Wait a minute are we talking about a model prediction that is suppose
to happen 17 days from now?!!?!?!?!?!?!? Come on now we can't even get the models to get something
5 days away right. I think I'll stick to picking the Lotto numbers. I have better chance doing that then
the models.

I'm pretty sure no one is calling for landfall predictions yet, but the consistency of the GFS showing this feature is not to be discounted. It is already being internally tracked (pouched). Also, as of now, this does not look to recurve. Naturally, this will get more attention.

BTW, the feature is not 17 days out. The image is the ending point. The feature is actually already present on the coast of Africa and shows on the models much earlier on.

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian on it

[Wx_Warrior]

gotcha

[Ivanhater]

That's Igor, not this one.

[Wx_Warrior]

240 EURO - birds eye view

[WeatherGuesser]

I know we'll have our eyes wide open in the Gulf with this one, as will everyone else!

Maybe next week about this time you can start to get concerned.

[ColinDelia]

The GFS keeps this as an open wave until it reaches the Caribbean. Yet look at the imagery.
Doesn't exactly make sense. Also, the GFS has the vorticity about 7 degrees south of the center
of convection over Africa right now. Looking at the latest imagery that is actually true.
However we've seen with these kind of waves that in reality the circulation will end up with the convection.

Seems likely we'll see a shift north in the GFS (not sure if other models similar) of at least 7 degrees and maybe more
if the area of vorticity ends up with the convection in the wave. Maybe something will conspire to kill the convection and it actually will end up this way but seems to me if this wave develops rapidly where the convection is we get a different solution - and maybe a very different solution - than that given by models currently.

Regardless it looks like the models are indicating a big classic high across the basin once the TCs get far enough North for the next 10 days without the weaknesses we've seen and the potential for a lot of western movement.

And yes, of course its all long-range anyway.

[WeatherGuesser]

Julia on the left followed by our new friend right-center

[KWT]

Looking a very impressive wave, I personally think this one may develop in the CV region but struggls acorss the basin as a low rider before entering the Caribbean.

The 20th September onwards is when the danger zone for the Caribbean increases markedly and I think this along with 92L will be the first major threats to this region, nd expect several more afterwards.

06z GFS makes this into a classic CC system and then makes it into...you guessed it...a Mexico system!

[Gustywind]

Looking a very impressive wave, I personally think this one may develop in the CV region but struggls acorss the basin as a low rider before entering the Caribbean.

The 20th September onwards is when the danger zone for the Caribbean increases markedly and I think this along with 92L will be the first major threats to this region, nd expect several more afterwards.

06z GFS makes this into a classic CC system and then makes it into...you guessed it...a Mexico system!

Thanks for personnal opinion. I know that we're far away from a threat for any lands ... Whereas you speak about a low rider entering the Caribbean, so you tkink that the Windwards or Leewards should be affect first by this possible feature at which latitude and with what intensity? Any idea?