ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[brunota2003]

I wouldn't lean on anything. You never know when they'll break and you land flat on your face. People shouldn't be worried, but instead should just keep an eye on it encase the models are wrong. Keep your weather eye(s) to the sky, but don't panic.

[Florida1118]

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 47.8W
Now who would be crazy Enough to even get within 500 miles of Igor?

SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
TROUGH COULD FLATTEN A LITTLE BY DAY 3 AND ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH
DISAGREEMENT TO INDICATE A WESTWARD TURN IN THE FORECAST.
Well now...Dont lay all your models in 1 basket everyone.

[sponger]

I wouldn't lean on anything. You never know when they'll break and you land flat on your face. People shouldn't be worried, but instead should just keep an eye on it encase the models are wrong. Keep your weather eye(s) to the sky, but don't panic.

Well said! Until your in a cone 3 days out just watch and relax. The NHC has been amazing the past few years!

[SouthFLTropics]

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 47.8W
Now who would be crazy Enough to even get within 500 miles of Igor?

Maybe the U.S. Navy...I don't know...

SFT

[AtlanticWind]

THE MEAN MOTION IS 270/11...BUT IGOR HAS BEEN WOBBLING A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH OF THAT VECTOR. IGOR IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE
THE STEERING FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DICTATED BY A LARGE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO RESPOND BY TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
TROUGH COULD FLATTEN A LITTLE BY DAY 3 AND ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH
DISAGREEMENT TO INDICATE A WESTWARD TURN IN THE FORECAST. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BUT THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT IGOR IS READY TO TURN. THIS
SOLUTION ALSO GIVES CREDENCE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN ECMWF AND UKMET
MODELS.

[SouthFLTropics]

SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
TROUGH COULD FLATTEN A LITTLE BY DAY 3 AND ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH
DISAGREEMENT TO INDICATE A WESTWARD TURN IN THE FORECAST.
Well now...Dont lay all your models in 1 basket everyone.

Well that little tidbit at least shows that the NHC is recognizing the other models and speaking of the possibility. Or maybe they put that in just for us here at S2K! LOL

SFT

[ConvergenceZone]

I wouldn't lean on anything. You never know when they'll break and you land flat on your face. People shouldn't be worried, but instead should just keep an eye on it encase the models are wrong. Keep your weather eye(s) to the sky, but don't panic.

True, but if a wall is in front of you(high pressure system) you aren't going to walk through it....On the other hand, if there's a gap in the wall(like there is with Ivan), you'll walk through it just fine.....

[mf_dolphin]

My point is that no evidence was offered other than the eye has slightly shrunk to support that an ERC would start tonight and be completed tomorrow. While I fully expect Igor to undergo an ERC at some point, right now I just don't see it starting to happen. The core looks extremely intense and very stable with no indication I've seen of a secondary eyewall even starting to form.

What you are missing and what everyone else is saying is that a new convective band DID develop around the eye this evening (the ring of red around the original eye.) That is step 1 in the process of ERC. Step 2 is that the original eyewall starts contracting. That appears to be occurring. So step 1 happened and step 2 is occurring...

I'm not missing the features you describe but I do disagree with that interpretation.

[CrazyC83]

Based on those objective numbers, I would have gone up to 135 kt after seeing that.

[vbhoutex]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html


wow it really did dive to the south just a bit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Igor is a little south of the points but well within the wobble factor

So far definitely within the wobble factor, but it sure looks more like a trend as opposed to a wobble, at least in the link above. The movement is/was definitely just barely S of W. Let's see if it comes back towards just N of W now. I didn't see the wobble I normally do in the link above and that is what gives me a little pause.

[AtlanticWind]

I wouldn't lean on anything. You never know when they'll break and you land flat on your face. People shouldn't be worried, but instead should just keep an eye on it encase the models are wrong. Keep your weather eye(s) to the sky, but don't panic.

True, but if a wall is in front of you(high pressure system) you aren't going to walk through it....On the other hand, if there's a gap in the wall(like there is with Ivan), you'll walk through it just fine.....

Maybe that gap in the wall is a door, If that door happens to close .......?

[Chacor]

Hurricane Igor, 2010, 130 knots, 935 mbar

Compare:

Hurricane Ioke, 2006, 140 knots, 920 mbar

[coreyl]

[Florida1118]

Hurricane Igor, 2010, 130 knots, 935 mbar

Hurricane Ioke, 2006, 140 knots, 920 mbar

Hmmm...Seeing Ioke I guess keeping Igor at 4 was a good call.

[Chacor]

Last night vis from 6:18pm ET:

[ConvergenceZone]

maybe that gap in the wall is a door, If that door happens to close .......?

This time of year, it's extremely difficult for that to happen due to all of the Lows/fronts moving through...

[dexterlabio]

Is the forward pace of Igor slowing down? Guess that would be an indicator whether Igor shall change course and move in a more northwesterly track.

[CrazyC83]

Ioke's 140 was probably conservative though. I would think it was closer to 150 kt. But true it is sure that Igor is not a Cat 5 right now.

[ozonepete]

I'm not missing the features you describe but I do disagree with that interpretation.

That's fine. This is a great place to talk it out and I've eaten plenty of crow on here. Not to forget to mention that you are one of the best people on here.

And this from the NHC 11PM:

"AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FROM UW-CIMSS RUN AT NHC INDICATES
THAT THERE IS A 42 PERCENT CHANCE OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND A 90 PERCENT CHANCE WITHIN 24 HOURS.'

[cycloneye]

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 24.0N, 60.0W or about 543.5 miles (874.7 km) from your location. This is corresponding with the 96 hour position of the 5-day forecast (Thursday, September 16 at 11:00PM AST).

http://stormcarib.com/closest1.htm