ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[brunota2003]

Yeah...the T #s haven't changed much, even the ADT maxed out at 6.6, and have been bouncing around between 6.4 and 6.6 (6.6 being 130 knots).

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2010 Time : 074500 UTC
Lat : 17:36:07 N Lon : 48:32:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 934.2mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.6 6.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +13.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Chacor]

Agree, this isn't a five yet and hasn't been a five yet. Comparisons of IR shots with past Cat 5 storms makes that painfully obvious.

[rosethornil]

When will the Smart People start making educated guesses as to landfall on Eastern Seaboard?

Rose (on the Eastern Seaboard)

[WeatherGuesser]

When will the Smart People start making educated guesses as to landfall on Eastern Seaboard?

Should get a better picture Thursday or Friday

[Chacor]

When will the Smart People start making educated guesses as to landfall on Eastern Seaboard?

Rose (on the Eastern Seaboard)

Still way too early to tell. Way too early.

[Nimbus]

Still headed generally west with some weak trochoidal wobbling. The UKMET doesn't show a gain in latitude till 52W so its too early to get worried for the islands. I would enjoy these breathtaking sat shots a lot more if Igor wasn't crossing 50W south of 18N..

[O Town]

Wow! Look at the stadium effect on dvorak.

[cyclonic chronic]

is that an upper level low to the east of igor? if so what could that do to the track?

[tailgater]

That last loop really shows how the EYE (clear spot)can jump around in the center. Beautiful storm as long as it stays at sea.

[plasticup]

I thought I'd be waking up to a Cat 5 this morning, but it looks like the convection hasn't quite maintained. Still a beauty, though.

[ColinDelia]

is that an upper level low to the east of igor? if so what could that do to the track?

Yeah you can see that ULL here.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... l200-0.GIF

You can see what the GFS does with it in this loop of the 200 mb streamlines output.
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html

[Crostorm]

[cwachal]

This is an amazing looking storm.... although it still has no northward component to it. I wonder if that means the trof is not as strong and may not affect him???

[TheBurn]

[Gustywind]

From Crown Weather Discussion
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Monday, September 13, 2010 625 am EDT/525 am CDT

Please consider making a donation to help us cover the cost of extra bandwidth for this week. To make sure that the site does not go down this week, we are running on extra bandwidth to cover the anticipated increased traffic loads that will be created from Hurricane Igor and the possibility of Invest 92-L becoming a tropical cyclone in the next few days. A huge and massive thank you to everyone that has donated so far, however, we are still about $125 short in making the payment for extra bandwidth and if not met will have to come out of our own pockets. Thank you for your support & allowing us to continue to make this site freely available to all!! To donate, just go to http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=22 .

Hurricane Igor:
For Information About Hurricane Igor with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3068 .

Igor is a powerful Category 4 hurricane this morning with 150 mph maximum sustained winds and a minimum central pressure of 935 millibars. As is normal for powerful hurricanes like this, internal dynamics will dictate intensity changes through eyewall replacement cycles. I do think that Igor will intensify a little more today and become a Category 5 hurricane and will likely maintain at least Category 3 or 4 intensity for much of this week. By the end of this week, Igor is forecast to track into an area of stronger shear which may cause some weakening to perhaps upper end Category 2 strength.

Igor is tracking due west or even perhaps a little south of due west at a forward speed of 12 mph. Water vapor satellite loops indicate that Igor is approaching the western edge of a ridge of high pressure and the hurricane should start turning west-northwest starting tonight and then turn to the northwest by Wednesday. Most of the global model guidance forecast that the trough of low pressure off of the US East Coast will flatten out later this week, however, there are disagreements on whether the ridge of high pressure will build westward in the wake of this trough. The European and UKMET models continue to forecast stronger ridging to build westward and forecast Igor to track as far west as almost 70 West Longitude before turning out into the open Atlantic.

First and foremost, I expect Igor to miss the Leeward and Virgin Islands by a safe distance. One thing to look for now is to see if powerful Igor is able to create its own environment and pump up the ridge to its north and cause a slower turn than what the model guidance forecast. This type of scenario would cause Igor to maintain a more west-northwest track from later tonight through at least Wednesday. A track much like the European model is very possible and the turn out into the open Atlantic may not occur until it reaches 70 West Longitude late this weekend with the slim possibility of this turn not occurring until it reaches 73 or 75 West Longitude. This type of a scenario is still 5 to 7 days away and a lot can happen between now and then.

Needless to say, I will be keeping a very close eye on Igor and all interests in Bermuda and the US East Coast and Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Igor.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

[TheBurn]

[plasticup]

This is an amazing looking storm.... although it still has no northward component to it. I wonder if that means the trof is not as strong and may not affect him???

It's too early for that talk - he isn't meant to turn just yet. The models have come into better agreement recently that he will fall into the trough and recurve.

[KWT]

Wow Igor is looking a stunner again this morning, I'd argue it probably looks better now then it did even yesterday...I'd say this maybe very close to a 5 right now, I do think its just about at its peak...for now...

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR AT 13/0900 UTC IS NEAR 17.7N 44.4W.
IGOR IS MOVING WESTWARD 11 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 745 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO
20N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 38W AND 45W
IN BANDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HURRICANE.


$$
MT

[KWT]

Worth noting the models once again suggests Bermuda could be at risk, esp if this does end up becoming a very large system like the models suggests.

Odds are it'll get a little west of Bermuda IMO but we will see, its going to be in the cone tomorrow I'd expect.