ATL: KARL - Models
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Models jumping onboard now for this area to develop, even if it may not really get going till the BoC..set-up looks good for development there.
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06z models are very interesting, the GFS strengthens this one quite alot just before landfall and the GFDL makes this into a decent hurricane in the BoC...which given what the other models show may not be a bad idea...though no doubt its too agressive before Yucatan IMO.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models
12z Tropical Models Suite
Code: Select all
471
WHXX01 KWBC 131251
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1251 UTC MON SEP 13 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100913 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100913 1200 100914 0000 100914 1200 100915 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 77.2W 16.8N 79.3W 17.2N 81.6W 17.8N 83.9W
BAMD 16.2N 77.2W 16.8N 79.6W 17.3N 82.0W 17.8N 84.6W
BAMM 16.2N 77.2W 16.8N 79.5W 17.3N 81.9W 17.9N 84.3W
LBAR 16.2N 77.2W 16.8N 80.1W 17.7N 83.0W 18.7N 85.8W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS 56KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS 56KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100915 1200 100916 1200 100917 1200 100918 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.4N 86.3W 19.9N 90.4W 21.1N 93.7W 21.4N 97.1W
BAMD 18.2N 87.2W 19.1N 91.8W 19.0N 95.2W 18.3N 98.8W
BAMM 18.5N 86.8W 19.9N 91.1W 20.7N 94.5W 20.6N 97.8W
LBAR 19.8N 88.4W 22.4N 92.6W 24.4N 94.3W 25.8N 95.1W
SHIP 71KTS 88KTS 99KTS 101KTS
DSHP 71KTS 45KTS 55KTS 45KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 77.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 73.8W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 70.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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GFS really blows this up in the BoC and the system slows right down, could get quite a decent system from this if it were to get going before the Yucatan...maybe like Alex strength??
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- srainhoutx
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models
12Z HWRF and GFDL are significantly stronger with 92L in the BoC.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models
Here they are in animation.
12z HWRF:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
12z GFDL:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
12z HWRF:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
12z GFDL:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models
18z Tropical Models Suite
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 131849
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1849 UTC MON SEP 13 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100913 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100913 1800 100914 0600 100914 1800 100915 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 78.8W 16.3N 80.7W 16.9N 82.7W 17.4N 84.7W
BAMD 15.9N 78.8W 16.5N 81.1W 17.1N 83.4W 17.6N 85.8W
BAMM 15.9N 78.8W 16.4N 80.9W 17.0N 83.0W 17.7N 85.2W
LBAR 15.9N 78.8W 16.2N 81.6W 17.1N 84.6W 18.0N 87.6W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 58KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 58KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100915 1800 100916 1800 100917 1800 100918 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 86.8W 20.9N 90.2W 22.9N 93.4W 23.5N 97.7W
BAMD 18.2N 88.2W 19.4N 92.2W 20.0N 94.6W 20.3N 97.4W
BAMM 18.6N 87.3W 20.7N 91.2W 22.6N 94.0W 23.2N 97.7W
LBAR 19.2N 90.5W 22.0N 94.6W 24.2N 96.1W 22.8N 97.4W
SHIP 71KTS 88KTS 98KTS 93KTS
DSHP 71KTS 43KTS 52KTS 48KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.9N LONCUR = 78.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 75.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 72.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models
That they are.
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models
looks like a pretty straight forward track ...with development chances low until the BOC.....i can't believe this has the same amount of page's as IGOR's model thread....really?!
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The tract is going to depend alot on where and if it forms in the first place, a further south formation and it may not even make the BoC...further north and you'll get something of similar strength as Alex at landfall IMO...
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models
00z Tropical Models Suite
Code: Select all
094
WHXX01 KWBC 140032
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC TUE SEP 14 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100914 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100914 0000 100914 1200 100915 0000 100915 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 79.8W 16.4N 81.5W 17.1N 83.3W 17.9N 85.4W
BAMD 16.0N 79.8W 16.5N 82.1W 17.1N 84.5W 17.6N 86.9W
BAMM 16.0N 79.8W 16.5N 81.8W 17.1N 83.9W 17.9N 86.1W
LBAR 16.0N 79.8W 16.5N 82.6W 17.5N 85.5W 18.5N 88.5W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 49KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100916 0000 100917 0000 100918 0000 100919 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.0N 87.2W 20.7N 90.8W 21.6N 94.1W 21.9N 98.4W
BAMD 18.2N 89.2W 18.8N 93.2W 18.3N 96.3W 18.2N 100.0W
BAMM 18.8N 88.2W 20.2N 92.0W 20.7N 95.2W 20.8N 99.1W
LBAR 19.9N 91.1W 22.8N 94.7W 24.8N 96.4W 25.6N 98.1W
SHIP 60KTS 78KTS 89KTS 89KTS
DSHP 46KTS 42KTS 53KTS 34KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 79.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 77.1W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 73.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models
IMHO I think that this is being initialized too far to the south. It looks like the main vorticity (at both 500 and 850 mb) is much nearer the western edge of Jamaica.
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- South Texas Storms
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models
those BAMMS in the graphic are 18z...not that it matters much...
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 0&title=92
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 0&title=92
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