Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Luis can I ask a question as you seem to have good grap of how ridges etc work, from what I just read on the model page for 92L seems its all depends on how the ridge holds or weakens depends on if 92L will be Yucatan or Belize. Am I reading this correctly? If so what date are we possibly looking at for landfall and what intensity, I know until cyclone actually forms its hard to pinpoint but an estimate would be handy. thxs Marion

That is correct. Depends if the ridge is strong or not to then have a landfall more south or north.About date, it depends of the speed of the system.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING A RELATIVE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TRAILING BANDS OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...JUST SOUTH OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC... WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. RADAR OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN...NORTHWESTERN
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS. MOISTURE APPEARS TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY MORNING...
BEFORE AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE
FA ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. IN FACT...SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND MIMIC PWAT PRODUCT SHOWED A RELATIVE DRIER AIR MASS
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST DECREASING TREND OF PWAT VALUES JUST BELOW 1.5 INCHES LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HURRICANE IGOR...AS IT
MOVES MAINLY WEST AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE. THE TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST AND MOST FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEST NORTHWEST TURN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME
EFFECTS ARE STILL EXPECTED LOCALLY...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF AN
OVERALL SHIFT IN THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN AND MODERATE TO LARGE EAST
AND THEN NORTHEAST OCEAN SWELLS. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST
BULLETINS/UPDATE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON FORECAST AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST...
NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING NEAR TJPS...TJMZ...TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ
THROUGH 12/22Z OR 23Z IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET
OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO
BANDS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION AND SEEK SAFE HARBOR AT THE FIRST SIGN
OF THREATENING WEATHER.

[Gustywind]

Thanks for all the reports! I'm relieved to read no bad problems with flooding/mudslides down island.

I've been offline with no power since about noon, it went out before the rain and squally winds reached my house, so maybe it was caused by lightning. Nothing else to do but read the newspaper I bought yesterday about the cleanup, etc., only it got so dark I could hardly see. It rained really hard and blew for a bit, but I don't think long enough to cause problems. Sure glad I spent 2hrs yesterday cleaning out a drain on the property that was clogged with sticks, leaves, mud, and sand.

Gusty, you are always a breath of fresh, sweet air, thanks hon!!!

Barbara, as to Igor, we are in the cone of uncertainty now, with all that implies. Earl was supposed to go north, too, remember? I wrote this morning: "All eyes in NE Caribbean are on Igor's track, having so recently experienced Earl. Close monitoring is wise, here's comparison of 5-day track forecasts at same point westward. In both forecast tracks VI/BVI are outside the uncertainty cone. The significant difference between these two is the intensity, with Igor slated to be a major and also a large storm. US Navy drew the map for Advisory 12 on Igor with local area and all of Leewards within the 5-day cone of uncertainty..." I always go by the Navy maps, they show the circumferance of average daily error on each fix point, NHC kind of rounds them.

Thanks for this compliment my friend. Always interresting post with reasoning, analysis, optimisim can we give you a mark EXCELLENT Wait and see but Igor continues to become fatter and fatter now CAT 4 can reach 5 Tuesday Go away go away Igor from any land!

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

From Stormcarib.com.
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... idad.shtml
- Phew ! ...., A September to Remember !!
By Ian Martin Borde <readkrox51 at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2010 12:40:30 -0400

2010 – 09 – 12 Sun.
11 : 40 a.m.

SEPTEMBER TO REMEMBER

1/ This is NOT a Trial Run, This is THE REAL THING.!.!!.!.

(There it is folks. My real post. Short and not Sweet.) I would love
to say “Hi!” and that everything will pan out well, this and the
coming week, in Paradise. But that is not so.!.

2/ I will like to give respect where respect is due. And wish Mr.
Fuller a healthy and wealthy, retirement. Even though we have not met,
(that I know about). His contribution is being used by me, which is a
form of flattery, by me and others.

I know or think I understand what Dave and Gert have to go thru. And
it is not easy. Hats off, bottoms up, Cheers, to All.!

In the West Indies everyone critizes and does nothing but go through
heavy DENIAL. So, my 2 cents is; 36 hours before the storm, we (the
web page) should have a reception area (pre-allocated funding and
bandwidth) to filter visitors who input data (raw, emergency or
otherwise) but (inc. flora and fauna) and those who get information to
use elsewhere.- Those who input also need the page for info to input
!! -

3/ Earl intensified, in the Caibbean, over the islands. Gaston went
straight thru. Arthritis, Astrology, History, Scientists, et al, say
it, the Nature Indicators are there.!.
Igor, Invest 92L and Depression 12, can only be bad news. It will
probably be a worst case scenario !!!!!

Nobody else but StormCarib has ever allowed me to write three
alternative posts in one.

Brotherhood and Respect,
God Bless,
Ian M. Borde

[Gustywind]

- SxmGIS - Office of Disaster Management Calls on Public to be Vigilant of Approaching Major Hurricane Igor
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... rtin.shtml
By Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2010 18:46:35 -0400

News Release



Written by Roddy Heyliger, Government Information Service (GIS), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, Sint Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net;



For Immediate Release: Sunday, September 12, 2010/N132



Office of Disaster Management Urges Public Vigilance of Approaching Major Hurricane Igor



GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (GIS) – The Office of Disaster Management is urging the public to closely monitor the progress of major Hurricane Igor which is approaching the North Eastern Caribbean islands as of Sunday.



Igor is expected to make a turn to the Northwest on Tuesday. The powerful hurricane on Sunday had wind speeds of 140 miles per hour with high gusts.



The Office of Disaster Management will continue to monitor the progress of this powerful hurricane very closely until it safely passes the island at a comfortable distance.



# # #



Roddy Heyliger

Sint Maarten Government Information Service (GIS)


Best regards,
Roddy Heyliger - BB pin 21437DBE

P.O.Box 945, Philipsburg, St. Maarten
Cell: 5204217-primary, 5816323-secondary

Public Relations & Communications
Secondary Email: roddyheyliger at yahoo.com

[BZSTORM]

Luis can I ask a question as you seem to have good grap of how ridges etc work, from what I just read on the model page for 92L seems its all depends on how the ridge holds or weakens depends on if 92L will be Yucatan or Belize. Am I reading this correctly? If so what date are we possibly looking at for landfall and what intensity, I know until cyclone actually forms its hard to pinpoint but an estimate would be handy. thxs Marion

That is correct. Depends if the ridge is strong or not to then have a landfall more south or north.About date, it depends of the speed of the system.

thanks Luis, you'd think after hurricane watching for 10 years I'd have got this figured out, but always new stuff to learn I find.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall
Sun Sep 12 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 34.2C 94F 42.5mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 32.1C 90F 11.7mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.2C 88F trace

Point Salines, Grenada 30.8C 87F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.0C 88F 5.1mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.7C trace

Hewannora St Lucia 32.0C 90F trace
Canefield, Dominica 32.8C 91F 5.0mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 32.1C 90F 10.0mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.2C 88F 16.6mm
VC Bird, Antigua 31.0C 88F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.7C 89F 19.0mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 33.0C 91F trace
Kingston, Jamaica 33.4C 92F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 33.9C 93F trace

Nassau, Bahamas 32.6C 91F 5.0mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 27.5C 82F 0.5mm

Hato Airport, Curacao 32.9C 91F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 32.4C 90F 0.8mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 32.9C 90F

-justin-

[Gustywind]

Regional Highs and Rainfall
Sun Sep 12 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 34.2C 94F 42.5mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 32.1C 90F 11.7mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.2C 88F trace

Point Salines, Grenada 30.8C 87F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.0C 88F 5.1mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.7C trace

Hewannora St Lucia 32.0C 90F trace
Canefield, Dominica 32.8C 91F 5.0mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 32.1C 90F 10.0mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.2C 88F 16.6mm
VC Bird, Antigua 31.0C 88F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.7C 89F 19.0mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 33.0C 91F trace
Kingston, Jamaica 33.4C 92F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 33.9C 93F trace

Nassau, Bahamas 32.6C 91F 5.0mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 27.5C 82F 0.5mm

Hato Airport, Curacao 32.9C 91F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 32.4C 90F 0.8mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 32.9C 90F

-justin-

Thanks my friend Justin for this daily job!

[Gustywind]

Hey another candidate? Look at this blob on Africa pretty solide, something to keep an eye in case of during the next couple of days...

[cycloneye]

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 24.0N, 60.0W or about 543.5 miles (874.7 km) from your location. This is corresponding with the 96 hour position of the 5-day forecast (Thursday, September 16 at 11:00PM AST).

http://stormcarib.com/closest1.htm

[Gustywind]

Good morning Monitoring carefully strong CAT 4 Igor near the Lesser Antilles.
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 130828
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTHWEST OF HAITI THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION TODAY.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE
LOCAL AREA LATE TODAY...BRINGING A RELATIVE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING BANDS OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...JUST SOUTHWEST OF HAITI THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT THIS
MOMENT. A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST BY LATE TODAY...HELPING TO LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT...SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND MIMIC PWAT PRODUCTS SHOWED A RELATIVE DRIER AIR MASS
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST DECREASING TREND OF PWAT VALUES JUST BELOW 1.5 INCHES LATE
TODAY AND DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH OVERALL DRIER
TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...STILL EXPECT ENOUGH
MOISTURE EACH AFTERNOON...TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

VERY STRONG (CAT 4) HURRICANE IGOR CONTINUES TO TRACK NEARLY
WESTWARD THIS MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK LATE TODAY...EVENTUALLY PASSING ABOUT 500
MILES NE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ACCORDING TO LATEST TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST. AT THIS POINT. SOME EFFECTS ARE STILL EXPECTED
LOCALLY...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE LOCAL WIND
PATTERN AND MODERATE TO LARGE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST OCEAN
SWELLS...AS CURRENT TRACK WILL LIKELY NOT GENERATE SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PLEASE
REFER TO LATEST BULLETINS/UPDATE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION ON FORECAST AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...BANDS OF SHOWERS FROM LOW PRES S OF HAITI EXTEND ALG
THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE USVI AND PR PRODUCING SCT SHWRS
ACROSS ERN AND SWRN PUERTO RICO AND AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. EXPECT OCNL SHWRS BUT GENLY VFR CONDS AT TJSJ BUT ALL
OTHER TAF SITES MAY HAVE OCNL MVFR CONDS BTWN 13/02Z AND 13/15Z.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS AFT
13/04Z AND VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH 13/18Z. WINDS
ARE SE AT LOWEST LVLS BCMG BTWN 10-25 KFT 20 KTS OR LESS. LLVL
WINDS SHIFT TO E AFT 13/18Z

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 90 78 / 30 20 30 30
STT 89 80 90 80 / 30 20 40 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72

[cycloneye]

Crown Weather Services's Monday, September 13, 2010 at 5:27am.Hurricane Igor:

For Information About Hurricane Igor with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3068
Igor is a powerful Category 4 hurricane this morning with 150 mph maximum sustained winds and a minimum central pressure of 935 millibars. As is normal for powerful hurricanes like this, internal dynamics will dictate intensity changes through eyewall replacement cycles. I do think that Igor will intensify a little more today and become a Category 5 hurricane and will likely maintain at least Category 3 or 4 intensity for much of this week. By the end of this week, Igor is forecast to track into an area of stronger shear which may cause some weakening to perhaps upper end Category 2 strength.

Igor is tracking due west or even perhaps a little south of due west at a forward speed of 12 mph. Water vapor satellite loops indicate that Igor is approaching the western edge of a ridge of high pressure and the hurricane should start turning west-northwest starting tonight and then turn to the northwest by Wednesday. Most of the global model guidance forecast that the trough of low pressure off of the US East Coast will flatten out later this week, however, there are disagreements on whether the ridge of high pressure will build westward in the wake of this trough. The European and UKMET models continue to forecast stronger ridging to build westward and forecast Igor to track as far west as almost 70 West Longitude before turning out into the open Atlantic.

First and foremost, I expect Igor to miss the Leeward and Virgin Islands by a safe distance. One thing to look for now is to see if powerful Igor is able to create its own environment and pump up the ridge to its north and cause a slower turn than what the model guidance forecast. This type of scenario would cause Igor to maintain a more west-northwest track from later tonight through at least Wednesday. A track much like the European model is very possible and the turn out into the open Atlantic may not occur until it reaches 70 West Longitude late this weekend with the slim possibility of this turn not occurring until it reaches 73 or 75 West Longitude. This type of a scenario is still 5 to 7 days away and a lot can happen between now and then.

Needless to say, I will be keeping a very close eye on Igor and all interests in Bermuda and the US East Coast and Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Igor.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml
- MONSTER HURRICANE IGOR
By "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm at candw.ag>
Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2010 06:03:51 -0400

This early morning wake up on Antigua is our typical beautiful start to the day... Very quiet and calm.. Hard to believe there is the CAT 4 hurricane barreling directly at us... WITH A NORTH TURN PREDICITED. As mentioned before we certainly hope for that TURN as this strong of a hurricane would blow us all apart with great devastation. So anxiously watching each update for The track. 1995 LUIS was a cat. 4 and it did terrible damage. Our local weather has not mentioned this at all ... I think after all the activity lately they don't want to alarm people...

Will be keep watching this!

[msbee]

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 24.0N, 60.0W or about 543.5 miles (874.7 km) from your location. This is corresponding with the 96 hour position of the 5-day forecast (Thursday, September 16 at 11:00PM AST).

http://stormcarib.com/closest1.htm

that sounds very good to me!
and so does this!

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 22.5N, 57.7W or about 466.2 miles (750.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 72.4 hours (Thursday, September 16 at 5:24AM AST).

question though..how far out do tropical force winds extend?

[expat2carib]

Started to watch PGI45L still over Africa. It has model support and "says to gonna be" a low rider. This meaning low latitude into the Caribbean. Not to worry yet as there are extreme many uncertainties. Just worth keeping an eye on though.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109375&hilit=

[cycloneye]

Good morning Barbara. From the 5 AM Advisory:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

[Gustywind]

Started to watch PGI45L still over Africa. It has model support and "says to gonna be" a low rider. This meaning low latitude into the Caribbean. Not to worry yet as there are extreme many uncertainties. Just worth keeping an eye on though.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109375&hilit=

Thanks Expat2Carib. Should that mean that the ridge could be stronger to see this possible puppy moving west across the Islands? Waouw things are becoming very suspicious. Hopefully we have time to wait and see, but as you well said "Just worth keeping an eye on though". Dont' let our guard down.

[msbee]

Good morning Barbara. From the 5 AM Advisory:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

Thanks Luis