ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

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hial3
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#901 Postby hial3 » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:20 am

Isn't it true that strong hurricanes sometimes create their own environment? (path,etc)..I'm pretty sure I read that comment from a pro in this forum a long while back..
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#902 Postby plasticup » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:25 am

hial3 wrote:Isn't it true that strong hurricanes sometimes create their own environment? (path,etc)..I'm pretty sure I read that comment from a pro in this forum a long while back..

I think that has less to do with steering and more to do with tolerating dry/stable air which they can break up on their own.

(if memory serves)
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#903 Postby pcolaman » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:27 am

Looks like Igro is on its path and should be getting to the point of the curve to the wnw at anytime now .
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#904 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:29 am

Image

Funny that its name (Igor) is like a synonym of ugliness!!!

Maybe if you're in a boat near the eyewall, it looks pretty ugly!!!
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#905 Postby hial3 » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:30 am

Couldn't a cane of Igor's strength "pump up" whatever high pressure is steering it and delay (or prevent) the turn as long as it stays intense?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#906 Postby plasticup » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:31 am

hial3 wrote:Couldn't a cane of Igor's strength "pump up" whatever high pressure is steering it and delay (or prevent) the turn as long as it stays intense?

Uhhh, that's above my pay-grade. I haven't heard anything like that, but am certainly not qualified to say.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#907 Postby pcolaman » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:35 am

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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#908 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:45 am

We got our money's worth this year with Alex, Earl and now Igor.


The CV track north of the Antilles was this year's "hot spot".
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#909 Postby Nj612 » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:47 am

Ok I know this might sound weird but i am not even close to paying attention to any of those tracks considering they had this thing turning a few days ago. I live in the Virgin Islands and when i look at the satellite and look to the right of us...yea i'm not saying to myself "Oh thats turning, no need to worry" considering this was the same situation with Earl and we ended up getting hammered. It's still moving west, It hasn't gained latitude past 18.2N so i am paying attention something is tellin me that this MIGHT just come our way. Until i see it moving NW/WNW then i will look at the models. Never say never.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#910 Postby BigA » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:47 am

plasticup wrote:
hial3 wrote:Couldn't a cane of Igor's strength "pump up" whatever high pressure is steering it and delay (or prevent) the turn as long as it stays intense?

Uhhh, that's above my pay-grade. I haven't heard anything like that, but am certainly not qualified to say.


I think that this refers to the ability of powerful hurricanes to form anticyclones over them that impart favorable conditions, and their ability to resist dry air. I do not think it has a great deal to do with storms affecting their own steering currents.

If I am wrong, I'd love to learn what is the case.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#911 Postby Swimdude » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:54 am

So what do y'all think about interaction between Julia and Igor? Assuming both storms are in their predicted locations on day 5 (which I realize is unlikely), the two storms will be half the distance apart as they are today. Couldn't this alter steering patterns?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#912 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:56 am

Nj612 wrote:Ok I know this might sound weird but i am not even close to paying attention to any of those tracks considering they had this thing turning a few days ago. I live in the Virgin Islands and when i look at the satellite and look to the right of us...yea i'm not saying to myself "Oh thats turning, no need to worry" considering this was the same situation with Earl and we ended up getting hammered. It's still moving west, It hasn't gained latitude past 18.2N so i am paying attention something is tellin me that this MIGHT just come our way. Until i see it moving NW/WNW then i will look at the models. Never say never.


No one is saying never. That word should be banned from the meteorologist's lexicon. However, you can't just ignore the models. They are there for a reason. Don't put all your faith in them, but you can't just throw them out. Why have them to begin with if you just ignore them? The Virgin Islands will be safe from this. Its not 100% sure that you won't feel something, but you have nothing to fear at the moment. Even the NHC is giving the area a 0% chance of TS winds right now.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#913 Postby pcolaman » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:58 am

Swimdude wrote:So what do y'all think about interaction between Julia and Igor? Assuming both storms are in their predicted locations on day 5 (which I realize is unlikely), the two storms will be half the distance apart as they are today. Couldn't this alter steering patterns?

When two cyclones approach one another, their centers will begin orbiting cyclonically about a point between the two systems. The two vortices will be attracted to each other, and eventually spiral into the center point and merge. When the two vortices are of unequal size, the larger vortex will tend to dominate the interaction, and the smaller vortex will orbit around it. This phenomenon is called the Fujiwhara effect, after Sakuhei Fujiwhara.[58]
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#914 Postby edgeblade » Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:00 am

Swimdude wrote:So what do y'all think about interaction between Julia and Igor? Assuming both storms are in their predicted locations on day 5 (which I realize is unlikely), the two storms will be half the distance apart as they are today. Couldn't this alter steering patterns?


I'm not a pro or even much of an amateur, but I personally believe we'll see a similar outcome as with Earl & Fiona's interaction, or lack thereof. I don't think there will be much of a FW with these 2 because of the large strength differential. I think Igor will sap Julia of much of her strength and possibly fully absorb it, and Igor will continue on his way towards whatever path that may be. Just my opinion, nothing scientific about it.
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#915 Postby CJPILOT » Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:04 am

Looks to me like and EWRC is underway. Will be interesting to see how Igor responds and if he re-intensifies once the cycle is complete. Very impressive to hold 130 Knots given the outflow impedance to the north.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#916 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:09 am

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#917 Postby DanKellFla » Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:10 am

Are there going to be any recon flights? Igor is pretty far out there, but it might be worth it to make the effort to study a Cat 5.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#918 Postby pcolaman » Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:12 am

cycloneye wrote:Image

Looks to me that it is trending to the wsw a bit ?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#919 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:14 am

pcolaman wrote:
cycloneye wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2010_11L/webManager/last24hrs.gif

Looks to me that it is trending to the wsw a bit ?


Perhaps a wobble here, another one there, but the movement seems almost due west. The north and south wobbles I believe is just the eye contracting and expanding.
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#920 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:15 am

Image

BEAUTIFUL!!!
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