ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[Swimdude]

Wow, I'm sorry I mentioned the WSW wobble, haha... This has really been nothing more than a wobble, and can easily have to do with fluctuations in the eye. Igor could easy wobble back to the WNW in the next frame... Worry not.

[SkeetoBite]

In that image, it has been south of west for 4 hours

[pcolaman]

In that image, it has been south of west for 4 hours

I think your right so that would cause the track to be off about 40 mile correct ?

[Swimdude]

Here's the 11 a.m. advisory information concerning Igor's movement:

The initial motion estimate is 265/9 knots...a little slower than
before...and a bit south of the previous forecast. Most of the
guidance...with the exception of the UKMET...shows Igor turning
toward the west-northwest by tonight and then turning northwestward
by 48 hours as it moves into a large break in the subtropical
ridge. The official forecast is a little south of the previous one
through 12 hours given the initial position and motion. From 12
through 48 hours the official forecast is similar to but a little
slower than the previous package and trends toward the tvcn
consensus model forward speed. At 72 hours and beyond there is
considerable uncertainty with the evolution of the large-scale flow
and the track of Igor. The ECMWF and UKMET show more mid-level
ridging north and northeast of Igor over the central Atlantic and
move Igor slower and farther south than the rest of the guidance at
days 3 through 5. The GFS...GFDL...and GFDN keep this ridge farther
east and allow Igor to gain more latitude and recurve ahead of a
longwave trough situated offshore of the northeastern United
States. The NOGAPS and HWRF are between these two camps and show a
northwestward motion at day 5. Given the increasing spread of the
guidance late in the period...the official forecast is simply an
update of the previous advisory at these times and is of lower
confidence than normal. The NHC track is close to the NOGAPS and
well to the north of the UKMET and ECMWF at the end of the period.


To summarize, the NHC acknowledges that Igor has dipped to the South and has adjusted the track accordingly through 12 hours. After that point, (12-48 hours), the track is basically the same as the 5 a.m. advisory.

[Nj612]

Yea a little south movement and there is evidence because it was 17.7N this morning and now its 17.5N....i mean not a drastic drop but still south. This storm is really grabbing my attention.

[hurricanefloyd5]

In that image, it has been south of west for 4 hours

I think your right so that would cause the track to be off about 40 mile correct ?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

"My name is Igor, Hurricane Igor" lol

[dixiebreeze]

Noticed that the NHC in its 11 a.m. disco did not refer to the SW movement by Igor as a wobble. The update also referred to the lack of "confidence" in the forecast at this time.

I think the NHC does a super job in forecasting storms, but no one should let their guard down with Igor.

[Swimdude]

Noticed that the NHC in its 11 a.m. disco did not refer to the SW movement by Igor as a wobble. The update also referred to the lack of "confidence" in the forecast at this time.

I think the NHC does a super job in forecasting storms, but no one should let their guard down with Igor.

True--but "SW" isn't exactly how I would put it. 5 degrees South of West is more accurate. Also, I took the bit about lack of confidence to refer to the later part of the forecast period.

[dixiebreeze]

Noticed that the NHC in its 11 a.m. disco did not refer to the SW movement by Igor as a wobble. The update also referred to the lack of "confidence" in the forecast at this time.

I think the NHC does a super job in forecasting storms, but no one should let their guard down with Igor.

True--but "SW" isn't exactly how I would put it. 5 degrees South of West is more accurate. Also, I took the bit about lack of confidence to refer to the later part of the forecast period.

Ummm.... a little hard to know exactly what's in the minds of the forecasters.

[Cryomaniac]

But any movement south of west could have a huge impact on the 5+ day positions.

[dixiebreeze]

View of Igor from the "inactive" floater:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float4.html

[deltadog03]

The GFS...GFDL...and GFDN keep this ridge farther
east and allow Igor to gain more latitude and recurve ahead of a
longwave trough situated offshore of the northeastern United
States

Shocking!!!

[artist]

The GFS...GFDL...and GFDN keep this ridge farther
east and allow Igor to gain more latitude and recurve ahead of a
longwave trough situated offshore of the northeastern United
States

Shocking!!!

ok, so what are you thinking??

[Gustywind]

VIGOR IGOR let's hope for a quick turn right now islanders...

[Nj612]

O MY GOSH. that is right on our doorstep!....it will be interesting to see what this hurricane does in the next few hours. If this keeps west into tomorrow..(which is a possibilty...or not lol) we better buckle up.

[CrazyC83]

Wow it is huge now.

[Shuriken]

Looks like every 160mph hurricane I ever saw.

Stadium-seating is now open.

[Gustywind]

Convection is expanding very nicely, that's very large hurricane...

[hurricaneCW]

I hope someone makes a photo book of Igor because he's so impressive, just perfect in every way. I do think that Igor may be pumping the ridge a bit, it would explain the wsw movement. It's almost like it's slowing down and moving wsw because it's waiting for the weakness to fill in. It's no surprise that the gfs and gfdl show a quick recurve around 60W, the gfs has a bias of making a trough too strong, breaks down ridges very quickly.

I think it's interesting that the track is not so clear cut right now like it was with Earl. The NHC should have also mentioned the possibility of the whole Julia interaction like Jeff Masters did, maybe they will in future updates although it probably will have little bearing on the track forecast unless Julia is stronger than forecast and closer to Igor. The islands are lucky that Igor is at 50W, and not 60W or it could have been a disaster. The forecast cone is very unfortunate for Bermuda because it places them on the right side of Igor.

The best case scenario would be a recurve from 68-70W, or right in the middle of Bermuda and the east coast although if Igor becomes a lot larger, it will be difficult escaping some of his effects.