Pouch PGI45L - SW of CV Islands - (Is invest 94L)

#41 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:43 am

with the pattern forecasted by the globals this has a shot to make all the way across.

http://sat24.com/af

#42 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:02 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... ation.html

plasticup · #43 Postby **plasticup** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:22 am

A butterfly flaps its wings in Tokyo, and chaos theory eats your 16-day model.

I'm all about watching the development of a wave, but even the 7-day models are wildly inaccurate. It's not a flaw of modeling, it is just that over such long periods, minute variations (on scales below the detail of current data capture/input) have profound effects on the local and synoptic environments.

#44 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:31 am

Here is this mornings synopsis of PGI45L.

http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/pre ... opsis.html

PREDICT pouch synopsis

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date (UTC): 2010/09/13 13:04
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/09/13 13:08
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pouch Name: PGI45L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 8N 3W
Notes:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ECMWF: Phase Speed: Determination: Level tracked:

GFS: Phase Speed: -9.6 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 96h
Pouch moves south of west and becomes an E-W strip of vorticity,
with several small centers.
UKMET: Phase Speed: Determination: Level tracked:

Unavailable
NOGAPS: Phase Speed: -5.1 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 120h
Like yesterday with an early erratic track of a weak pouch,
followed by development of a strong pouch on the coast.
However, today, a single pouch location can be identified
throughout the forecast period, so the track goes all the way to
120 hours instead of just 36 hours.

#45 Postby **BigA** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 8:34 am

plasticup wrote:A butterfly flaps its wings in Tokyo, and chaos theory eats your 16-day model.

I'm all about watching the development of a wave, but even the 7-day models are wildly inaccurate. It's not a flaw of modeling, it is just that over such long periods, minute variations (on scales below the detail of current data capture/input) have profound effects on the local and synoptic environments.

True, but you have to look for consistency. When the GFS is consistently showing a big storm moving through the Caribbean sea in the 10 day timeframe, run after run, and the formation of said system remains at the same date (moving to less hours in the model) it is worth a second look.

And as Wxman has pointed out, the models are pretty good at forecasting large scale synoptics, and it looks like for the first time this year, there will be a big high over the subtropical Atlantic, with little weakness.

Yes, it's getting later...but the system that became Hurricane Georges in 1998 formed on September 15, and we really don't have a lot of -1.6 La Ninas in climatology to make comparisons with.

Just my 2 cents

#46 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:07 am

looking a climatological records we have till about the end of the week to get a storm across the basin before it becomes much less likely next week...

#47 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:12 am

Many of the classic CV storms that have impacted the US have formed between September 10-17th.

#48 Postby **ColinDelia** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:01 am

Convection has really decreased. Maybe the southern piece of vorticity will start heading west as a weak system after all.

#49 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:48 am

12z GFS moves trough the Caribbean into the Gulf then turns NE and hits South Florida back into the ATL

#50 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:08 pm

12c Canadian

#51 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:17 pm

could very well make it across....

#52 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 1:20 pm

I'm curious can you name a few "major" ones? Thanks.

Vortex wrote:Many of the classic CV storms that have impacted the US have formed between September 10-17th.

#53 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 1:32 pm

2 that come to mind are:

Hurricane Hugo: Formed Sept 10th

Hurricane Gloria: Formed September 16th

#54 Postby **ColinDelia** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 1:41 pm

Opal came off the African coast on sep 10, '95 and made it into the western caribbean as a wave before becoming become a depression 17 days later near the Yucutan and of course Hurricane in the Gulf.

#55 Postby **ColinDelia** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 1:43 pm

Vortex wrote:2 that come to mind are:

Hurricane Hugo: Formed Sept 10th

Hurricane Gloria: Formed September 16th

Long Island Express!

(Not that I know anything about CV climatology but thought I'd throw that one into the mix)

#56 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 2:27 pm

HWRF shows system nicely when you run Julia...Low latitude :eek:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

#57 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 2:31 pm

12Z Euro shows it at very low latitiude as well...

Day 6

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif

#58 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 2:33 pm

Day 9 Euro...No recurvature with this pattern...

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP216.gif

#59 Postby **ColinDelia** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 2:33 pm

Right now there are two vorticity pools. One around 6N, One around 11 N. PREDICT project has the pouch come off at 7.5N
72 hours from now it has it around 8N, 21W. Euro about the same. GFS even a little south of there.

#60 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 2:33 pm

12z GFDL on Julia also shows it,but weak along 10N.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Pouch PGI45L - SW of CV Islands - (Is invest 94L)

Re: GFS long range - PGI45L eventually to Caribbean&Gulf

Re: GFS long range - PGI45L eventually to Caribbean&Gulf

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