ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[expat2carib]

Where are the Ike comparisons coming from. Ike was never foretasted to hit north of Miami. This is forecasted to curve near Bermuda. Not comparable.

I posted this link a couple pages back .. apparently no body looked at it..



http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 8&title=09

[/quote]

It's a broken link.

[SoupBone]

Where are the Ike comparisons coming from. Ike was never foretasted to hit north of Miami. This is forecasted to curve near Bermuda. Not comparable.

I posted this link a couple pages back .. apparently no body looked at it..



http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 8&title=09

It's a broken link.[/quote]

It's a good link...it just takes a while to load.

[Portastorm]

Here is the Ike link I have for that website:

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=9&year=2008

[expat2carib]

My browser making problems. Sorry. Have it working now.

[Nj612]

To be honest, it just seems to ME that the outflow is getting better north and south of the storm like it has been all day...and the storm itself may just be getting bigger and expanding, doesn't look elongated to me. But again this is just my opinion.

[x-y-no]

I think what people are wanting to know is what kept Ike on a left projectory versus what is supposed to make Igor turn to the north/northwest.
In other words, did Ike not have a trough, etc. They are asking for the specifics as to the setups of each.

My recollection with Ike was that there was only a small break and TUTT feature which allowed some WNW movement, but then a super-strong ridge built over the whole Eastern US and Western Atlantic - like happened with Andrew only stronger.

By contrast, now we've got a big broad trough digging off the east coast.

[artist]

Okay, so I'm not much of a regular poster here, mostly because I don't know half as much as 99% of the people that DO regularly post... so please be lenient with me and what perhaps will be a stupid question:

This reminds me of Ike. He had a similar projected path when he was way out there in the Atlantic. Are there any similarities between the conditions that are influenced Ike's projected path and the conditions that are influencing Igor's?

no expert here at all, but I went back to the Ike advisories and here is what I found -

IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AT ABOUT 290/14...A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A BEND TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-
SOUTHWEST SEEMS PROBABLE AS A HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHWEST OF
IKE. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR FIRST
PART OF THIS FORECAST

and this now from Igor's forecast discussion -

SHOWS IGOR TURNING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT AND THEN TURNING NORTHWESTWARD
BY 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.

so it seems to me the high was blocking Ike, but there is a break in a ridge that will steer Igor to the north/northwest. Hope this helps some.

[hunkerdown]

Okay, so I'm not much of a regular poster here, mostly because I don't know half as much as 99% of the people that DO regularly post... so please be lenient with me and what perhaps will be a stupid question:

This reminds me of Ike. He had a similar projected path when he was way out there in the Atlantic. Are there any similarities between the conditions that are influenced Ike's projected path and the conditions that are influencing Igor's?

no expert here at all, but I went back to the Ike advisories and here is what I found -

IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AT ABOUT 290/14...A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A BEND TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-
SOUTHWEST SEEMS PROBABLE AS A HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHWEST OF
IKE. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR FIRST
PART OF THIS FORECAST

and this now from Igor's forecast discussion -

SHOWS IGOR TURNING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT AND THEN TURNING NORTHWESTWARD
BY 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.

so it seems to me the high was blocking Ike, but there is a break in a ridge that will steer Igor to the north/northwest. Hope this helps some.

Thank you! Exactly what I was looking for.

[canes101]

Well I am in no way an expert on storms and there motion, however I have noticed that before a turn the storms normally tend to elongate in that direction don't they? So in this case it would "stretch out" North and south? Is that happening now?? The storm was nice and tight and symmetrical this morning.. And now?? Well not so much

[snip]

So again I don't know a whole lot about the behavior of these systems and I don't pretend to... But.... is that whats happening?

I'm open to contrary opinions, but to me it just looks like the outflow has improved all around. I'm not seeing that distortion that frequently appears as a storm rounds the end of the ridge and starts to feel a trough.

Ok I appreciate your response. I Do believe you are correct

[TheBurn]

[cycloneye]

Beautiful site as the sun comes down. I safed this image.

[canes101]

If you look at both the AVN and Visible Flash satellite loops and click to put on the tropical forecast points it actually looks like he may stair step his way back up to just hit the next forecast point. Looked like he was defiantly going to miss it before, but looks like he could still just get it. Still has the chance to anyway that is

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[cpdaman]

i believe that a motion N of 265-270 has started in the 90 minutes.

just from viewing this http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1 in conjunction with the forecast.

probably around 280....which may technically still be "west" ....but this would be better news for islander's.

again this won't jump out at you on this loop...but i think it is something subtle yet slightly changed (the movement direction in the last 3 frames)

[brunota2003]

It could also be a wobble. I saw the more north turn of the eye, but the overall motion is still west.

[HURAKAN]

AMAZING

[deltadog03]

i believe that a motion N of 265-270 has started in the 90 minutes.

just from viewing this http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1 in conjunction with the forecast.

probably around 280....which may technically still be "west" ....but this would be better news for islander's.

again this won't jump out at you on this loop...but i think it is something subtle yet slightly changed (the movement direction in the last 3 frames)

The stadium effect will kinda play tricks with the eyes as well. Look at the IR...Its still moving around 270...

[hurricaneCW]

i believe that a motion N of 265-270 has started in the 90 minutes.

just from viewing this http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1 in conjunction with the forecast.

probably around 280....which may technically still be "west" ....but this would be better news for islander's.

again this won't jump out at you on this loop...but i think it is something subtle yet slightly changed (the movement direction in the last 3 frames)

It's starting to wobble toward the north, the long term motion could still be 265-270 though. I islander's were in no danger whatsoever even if Igor were to keep heading west all the way to 55W, the trough would eventually pick him up well to the NE of the islands. The only island in danger is Bermuda although now it appears that the models are trending further east and recurving Igor in the same position where Danielle recurved, keeping Bermuda relatively safe. Of course they should closely monitor Igor just in case.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

*edited by sg to add the disclaimer - you need to include it when making such matter of fact statements

[Aric Dunn]

its still riding 17.6 17.7 N I see nothing but a shrinking of the eye. may be the start of a ERC.