ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[KWT]

Whole region is coming westwards at quite a quick rate but I suspect providing it gets into the BoC its going to have favourable conditions to develop...but we will see if it even makes it!

[Sanibel]

The center might be that burst on the SW corner of Jamaica. I'd be calling for development of this one if I hadn't busted so bad on Gaston.

[wxman57]

Surface obs south of Jamaica indicate that any weak center is down around 16.5N/79.8W. Moving nearly due west. I don't see any development east of the Yucatan. Maybe in the BoC Thu/Fri. Still appears to be on track for moving inland near Tampico Saturday morning. Could be a moderate to strong TS if it gets going quickly enough in the BoC.

[South Texas Storms]

Surface obs south of Jamaica indicate that any weak center is down around 16.5N/79.8W. Moving nearly due west. I don't see any development east of the Yucatan. Maybe in the BoC Thu/Fri. Still appears to be on track for moving inland near Tampico Saturday morning. Could be a moderate to strong TS if it gets going quickly enough in the BoC.

will we get any rain from this in texas wxman?

[Portastorm]

Surface obs south of Jamaica indicate that any weak center is down around 16.5N/79.8W. Moving nearly due west. I don't see any development east of the Yucatan. Maybe in the BoC Thu/Fri. Still appears to be on track for moving inland near Tampico Saturday morning. Could be a moderate to strong TS if it gets going quickly enough in the BoC.

will we get any rain from this in texas wxman?

Now South Texas ... you promised Steve and the rest of us that you wouldn't post these "how much for San Antonio?" messages any more after Hermine.

You had your tropical fun for the year!

[South Texas Storms]

Surface obs south of Jamaica indicate that any weak center is down around 16.5N/79.8W. Moving nearly due west. I don't see any development east of the Yucatan. Maybe in the BoC Thu/Fri. Still appears to be on track for moving inland near Tampico Saturday morning. Could be a moderate to strong TS if it gets going quickly enough in the BoC.

will we get any rain from this in texas wxman?

Now South Texas ... you promised Steve and the rest of us that you wouldn't post these "how much for San Antonio?" messages any more after Hermine.

You had your tropical fun for the year!

haha oh yeah sorry
im just looking for some relief from this texas heat and the tropics is usually where our relief comes from this time of year.

[KWT]

Surface obs south of Jamaica indicate that any weak center is down around 16.5N/79.8W. Moving nearly due west. I don't see any development east of the Yucatan. Maybe in the BoC Thu/Fri. Still appears to be on track for moving inland near Tampico Saturday morning. Could be a moderate to strong TS if it gets going quickly enough in the BoC.

Yeah the BoC does seem to be a pretty favourable location this year so far for development and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it gets going...indeed I wouldn't even rule it out before the Yucatan actually...Alex was in a far worse state at 80W and only got going after this point to any degree...

I also wouldn't rule out a hurricane either, esp if it can get far enough north into the BoC.

[wxman57]

Surface obs south of Jamaica indicate that any weak center is down around 16.5N/79.8W. Moving nearly due west. I don't see any development east of the Yucatan. Maybe in the BoC Thu/Fri. Still appears to be on track for moving inland near Tampico Saturday morning. Could be a moderate to strong TS if it gets going quickly enough in the BoC.

will we get any rain from this in texas wxman?

Now South Texas ... you promised Steve and the rest of us that you wouldn't post these "how much for San Antonio?" messages any more after Hermine.

You had your tropical fun for the year!

"Death ridge" may hold through September. No sign of fall. So may not see anything of 92L up in central or SE TX.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 830 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
...AND ON TROPICAL STORM JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA REMAIN POORLY
ORGANIZED AND HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...
SOME DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Vortmax1]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1228 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010


THE NHC IS MONITORING AN
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHICH
MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS IT
CONTINUES WEST TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRIDAY. AT THAT TIME...A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA WITH AN UPPER
HIGH CENTER OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND ANOTHER OVER THE EASTERN
GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM (WHETHER A TC OR NOT) TO SURGE NORTH INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. THE WEEKEND OUTLOOK...AT THIS POINT...IS FOR CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THIS SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
DECREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS.

[SETXWXLADY]

This mentions moisture working up from the south as well. From Lake Charles...

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND
LOOKING FOR MORNING LOWS AROUND 60 CNTRL LA AND UPPER 60S ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FALL LIKE WHILE ON
WEDNESDAY LATE...WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SUMMERTIME RETURNS
"MOISTURE". OH WELL TWO DAYS OF FALL IS BETTER THAN NOTHING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS RETURN LATE THURSDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES
INTO THE REGION. BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

[BigA]

One rarely gets consensus like this without a system developing. Certainly not all the models make it strong, but most take it at least to TD or TS strength. It looks like the vorticity (850 mb) has strengthened a bit and is centered just off the west end of Jamaica.

[Vortmax1]

Yes, the 850 mb vorticity might be slightly stronger than earlier but the 500 is still more believable:

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 92, 2010091400, , BEST, 0, 160N, 798W, 25, 1006, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[lrak]

Surface obs south of Jamaica indicate that any weak center is down around 16.5N/79.8W. Moving nearly due west. I don't see any development east of the Yucatan. Maybe in the BoC Thu/Fri. Still appears to be on track for moving inland near Tampico Saturday morning. Could be a moderate to strong TS if it gets going quickly enough in the BoC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

I always have satellite glasses on and every spin is beautiful.

What happen to my hot spin just SW of Jamaica

[SETXWXLADY]

Surface obs south of Jamaica indicate that any weak center is down around 16.5N/79.8W. Moving nearly due west. I don't see any development east of the Yucatan. Maybe in the BoC Thu/Fri. Still appears to be on track for moving inland near Tampico Saturday morning. Could be a moderate to strong TS if it gets going quickly enough in the BoC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

I always have satellite glasses on and every spin is beautiful.

What happen to my hot spin just SW of Jamaica

Looks like your spin is headed due west. I know there's model consensus taking this into the BOC but It looks headed to CA to me. Course I'm sure I'm missing something. Wouldn't be the first time.

[emeraldislencguy]

What are the odds from thepro mets about this one ever developing

[wxman57]

What are the odds from thepro mets about this one ever developing

Maybe 60% in the BoC. If it does develop in the BoC early enough, it could be near hurricane strength as it nears NE Mexico by Tampico.

[Sanibel]

It pulsed down again completely. I didn't think it would do that. Doesn't help its chances for development.

[ROCK]

It pulsed down again completely. I didn't think it would do that. Doesn't help its chances for development.

yeah it totally poofed in a big way...to be honest, I wish it would go away. ...everytime I think its a go it dissolves...