ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[jabman98]

I heard on the news that Igor is so big that he would stretch from Dallas, TX to Washington, D.C. if he were on land. That's big.

No doubt they were referring to all of the clouds associated with it and not the extent of the hurricane force or even tropical storm force winds. That’s the media for you: hyping things up to the max.

BTW, some of the satellite images posted in this thread also give the impression that Igor is incredibly huge.

Yes, I suspect they meant all the clouds, not just the windfield. The comment was made while showing the photo of Igor from the ISS, so I think they were trying to put that size in terms people could understand.

[KWT]

even the last 3 hours have not been more than 275 at best... if it was 17.7 at 5 its now only 17.75 .... nothing substantial enough to call it a turn yet... still moving right along.

Someone on easternuswx who is a pro met used the Dvorak estimates and said it showed a 283 motion in the last 4hrs and I'd have to agree with that given the way its moved in the last 2hrs in particular.

If I was a betting man I'd say its turned to some a little shy of WNW...not quite there and it'll probably not nbe a smooth motion and will likely still wobble near due west at times.

[Aric Dunn]

we also have to be very careful especially if it does begin to go through a ERC anytime soon as the inner eye wobbles alot making it very difficult to determine the true motion..
with that said the latest microwave images may be hinting at bit of a concentric feature developing...

[cpdaman]

we also have to be very careful especially if it does begin to go through a ERC anytime soon as the inner eye wobbles alot making it very difficult to determine the true motion..
with that said the latest microwave images may be hinting at bit of a concentric feature developing...

and those microwave images are usually a bit old when they come out right.....like 120 min or so....?

[Aquawind]

the latest microwave images may be hinting at bit of a concentric feature developing...

Sure does..

[cpdaman]

last 2 frames are WSW wobbles

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

hmmm

i saw what you were KWT but now ....i'm not sure if this is some stair stepping but with the last 2 frames the 5 hour motion now seems about 275

[Aric Dunn]

even the last 3 hours have not been more than 275 at best... if it was 17.7 at 5 its now only 17.75 .... nothing substantial enough to call it a turn yet... still moving right along.

Someone on easternuswx who is a pro met used the Dvorak estimates and said it showed a 283 motion in the last 4hrs and I'd have to agree with that given the way its moved in the last 2hrs in particular.

If I was a betting man I'd say its turned to some a little shy of WNW...not quite there and it'll probably not nbe a smooth motion and will likely still wobble near due west at times.

what position estimates did he use? when we get DVorak and best track positions we can calculate it...

[Windtalker1]

left wobble

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

A bit of a SW wobble to me.....I have been reading the debate all afternoon about the SW, W, WNW, NW motion. To my untrained eyes, this has been moving west over a course of the last 6 hours.
If it is going to turn on a more NW heading, it better do so fast. Everyone says that it is to happen tonight. If by morning he is still around 18 or 18.1 it will be a diffrent ball game down the road.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[abajan]

... There has been no marked change in the synoptic setup to suggest that the turn will not occur. As a matter of fact, looking at the latest loops, it seems that turn may have already begun but I will need to see more frames to confirm that it’s not just a wobble ...

After viewing the latest frames, it is now quite clear to me that the turn to the west-northwest has indeed begun.

[KWT]

last 2 frames are WSW wobbles

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

hmmm

i saw what you were KWT but now ....i'm not sure if this is some stair stepping but with the last 2 frames the 5 hour motion now seems about 275

Hmmm its every so slight south of west, maybe something like 267 or so in the last 2 frames, these systems nearly always stairstep when it comes to coming towards upper weaknesses and the end of upper ridges, so yeah it'll probably slightly head south of west then move WNW again and repeat the process until its onto a more solid WNW heading tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

well its not going to make the 11pm position... and probably wont even get to 18N by then..

[expat2carib]

last 2 frames are WSW wobbles

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

hmmm

i saw what you were KWT but now ....i'm not sure if this is some stair stepping but with the last 2 frames the 5 hour motion now seems about 275

Hmmm its every so slight south of west, maybe something like 267 or so in the last 2 frames, these systems nearly always stairstep when it comes to coming towards upper weaknesses and the end of upper ridges, so yeah it'll probably slightly head south of west then move WNW again and repeat the process until its onto a more solid WNW heading tomorrow.

The WNW movement supposed to happen latest tonight. Not tomorrow.

[cpdaman]

pump those heights up big man

what mb level is the weakness in.......and is this weakness dipping further south....b/c in case igor doesn't turn wnw for another 12 hours....would he miss it....or is that like a 1 out of 100 shot? Mr aric? (lol at the stair downward comment)

[Aric Dunn]

last 2 frames are WSW wobbles

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

hmmm

i saw what you were KWT but now ....i'm not sure if this is some stair stepping but with the last 2 frames the 5 hour motion now seems about 275

Hmmm its every so slight south of west, maybe something like 267 or so in the last 2 frames, these systems nearly always stairstep when it comes to coming towards upper weaknesses and the end of upper ridges, so yeah it'll probably slightly head south of west then move WNW again and repeat the process until its onto a more solid WNW heading tomorrow.

I dont think i have seen stairs that dip down.. lol what instead of square stairs maybe something like bubble stairs..
I dont not see a substantial change in motion ( yet ) that says its begun to turn. after looking at the microwave images.. and satellite it could be the beginnings of ERC and the inner eye may be starting to wobble. if it starting the current eye should start to contract soon.

[Crostorm]

[Aric Dunn]

pump those heights up big man

what mb level is the weakness in.......and is this weakness dipping further south....b/c in case igor doesn't turn wnw for another 12 hours....would he miss it....or is that like a 1 out of 100 shot? Mr aric?

well the weakness is in all levels but the low to mid levels is weaker. the upper levels ( which is what is mostly steering it) is not completely broken down yet. overall the steering is actually fairly weak.

[KWT]

well its not going to make the 11pm position... and probably wont even get to 18N by then..

Going to require a pretty healthy WNW motion to keep in and hold for a while...

As for the chances of it missing the connection with the trough, sure it may well miss this one given its not that strong really past 48-72hrs and lifts out, if Igor stayed further south for longer we may see slack steering conditions and Igor gets left behind perhaps a little to the SW of Bermuda...but in the end in that position in mid Septeber a system will get picked up.

Just gotta be happy its coming through when it is rather then in 7-10 days time when it'd have probably been a threat to the SE states...

[cycloneye]

SAB Dvorak.

13/2345 UTC 17.7N 50.8W T6.0/6.5 IGOR -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Aric Dunn]

SAB Dvorak.

13/2345 UTC 17.7N 50.8W T6.0/6.5 IGOR -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

yeah I figured it had not moved north at all just the eye wobbling..

[Weatherfreak000]

^

Great call on that Aric.