Big increase of convection and less elongated on atl wave

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 18, 2003 6:07 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Let's see what this monday brings in terms of more organization at that atlantic wave but compared to yesterday today convection has been on the increase and also it is not so elongated as it was the last couple of days.Will we see 92L invest today at NRL?

Guest · #2 Postby **Guest** » Mon Aug 18, 2003 6:13 am

Also, willl it stay west or be a fish system. Too many questions and not enough answers.

The Islander's need to keep an eye on this one. In case it does develop.

#3 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Aug 18, 2003 6:35 am

I think it'll be named Invest 92L today. Convection is concentrating now. Latest GFS suggests it'll track across the NE Caribbean and pass very near Puerto Rico before dissipating as the one behind it strengthens.

rainstorm · #4 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Aug 18, 2003 7:16 am

very possible. at least its not moving at 25+

#5 Postby **wx247** » Mon Aug 18, 2003 8:10 am

Starting to look better organized. Wouldn't surprise me to see an invest soon.

The_Cycloman_PR · #6 Postby **The_Cycloman_PR** » Mon Aug 18, 2003 8:50 am

Impresive convection today, deep and organized. There was very little convection yesterday and the wave looked enlongated and disorganized. But that's not the story today. The convection development has been very fast and steady and now look impresive. Still I think it may need one or two days to gain some cyclone status (TD) depending of how the convection keep increasing or if it dissipate late in the afternoon. If the wave develops in two or more days that may bring the system closer to the northeast Caribbean than we and the models are telling, so we in the islands need to monitor it. Take note...This wave is moving 10 to 15 mph, Hmmm...! it's moving slow and not at 25+ mph as the earlier season's systems. SST's ahead of it are very warm, there's a ridge north of it, and MJO seen to be favorable for tropical development, very little to almost none shear, no SAL, well... judge yourself...These wave and the other emerging from Africa may encounter super good conditions out there. If this development of convection keep increasing, the 1012mb low drops, and keep it's current organization during all day it may be named 92L invest tonight but it will depend of how it behave for the rest of the day.

Keeping an eye on the Atlantic from PR

Cycloman

http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/Satellite/AtlanticLoop/

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

chadtm80 · #7 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Aug 18, 2003 9:21 am

Great shot updates every 30 min... http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.gif

Thunder44 · #8 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 18, 2003 9:53 am

The floater on the NHC site has now been set over the wave now.

Big increase of convection and less elongated on atl wave

Big increase of convection and less elongated on atl wave

Yep

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