ATL: IGOR - Models
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif
that sure is not a big window between those 2 ridges.....
that sure is not a big window between those 2 ridges.....
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Re:
BigA wrote:00Z GFS: Direct strike on Bermuda.
Just an awful hit, and the worst part is that it's moving rather slowly over the island, Bermuda would be lashed from 12-18 hours by hurricane force winds. Thank god for those building codes.
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00z GFDL to the east of Bermuda but more then close enough for hurricane warnings, thankfully a much weaker system, barely a 2 according to the GFDL!
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models
it look on this gfs run that high close down to north of igor by thur http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models
12z Euro pushes igor well SW of bermuda
builds in a north atlantic high that noses way SW out ahead of igor....on thrus nite....thru sat ....it merges this high with the southern states high at 500mb....
it's only out to 120 hrs...but a new weakness forms in the ridge at this time and looks like a N component would resume from a starting point around 32/68 or so
builds in a north atlantic high that noses way SW out ahead of igor....on thrus nite....thru sat ....it merges this high with the southern states high at 500mb....
it's only out to 120 hrs...but a new weakness forms in the ridge at this time and looks like a N component would resume from a starting point around 32/68 or so
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models
hr 144 euro says NC pay attention.....
position approx 34.5/ 69.5 w smack between bermuda and outer banks
position approx 34.5/ 69.5 w smack between bermuda and outer banks
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Re: ATL: IGOR - Models
hr 168 shows igor out to sea ENE .....
with closest pass around 34.5 /69.5 day 6 hr 144 BIG SHIFT WEST
with closest pass around 34.5 /69.5 day 6 hr 144 BIG SHIFT WEST
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Re:
HURAKAN wrote:http://freeuploadimages.org/images/dhjr5cawaktyvcv5aeu9.jpg
That wouldn't be good for Bermuda
No... no it wouldn't.
But has anyone got an interpretation of why the 12z Euro has shifted so far? It looks to me as if the model pushes the second trough through so quickly that Igor can't make the turn, then the building ridge forces him west until a third trough opens the door.
Yes? No? Maybe so?
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Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20
Re: ATL: IGOR - Models
hurakan verbatim (that graphic) they would see....probably similiar to what we got in wilma
plastic models have sped up the short wave moving thru new england on thursday pm and scooting out thurs late nite.....also they shifted it to the north..
so that may allow the ridge to build back in over the central-west atlantic i.e north and then NW of igor for a time early fri...thru late sat....at least
plastic models have sped up the short wave moving thru new england on thursday pm and scooting out thurs late nite.....also they shifted it to the north..
so that may allow the ridge to build back in over the central-west atlantic i.e north and then NW of igor for a time early fri...thru late sat....at least
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Re:
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Does anyone foresee the rapid intensification of Julia affecting Igor's model? If so, which direction do you predict?
I have wondered this as well. It seems all talk about their interacting has gotten quiet so I am assuming that means there will be none? Help us amateurs here guys! lol
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My thinking is not really, but the size of Igor played a role in Julia's rapid deepening. I think Igor is just sucking all the dry air out of the tropical Atlantic pretty much and gave Julia an environment to rapidly deepen.
As for the track, I don't see it making much different since Julia is far away and much smaller.
As for the track, I don't see it making much different since Julia is far away and much smaller.
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Re:
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Does anyone foresee the rapid intensification of Julia affecting Igor's model? If so, which direction do you predict?
I don't know anything about this, but I did some research, here is my finding:
Fujiwhara effect
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect
The effect is often mentioned in relation to the motion of tropical cyclones, although the final merging of the two storms is uncommon. The effect becomes pronounced in these storms when they approach within about 1,450 km (900 mi) of each other and are at tropical storm strength or stronger.
Current distance Igor, Julia using:
http://jan.ucc.nau.edu/~cvm/latlongdist.html
Distance between 19.8N 55.0W and 18.2N 32.7W is
1461.5784 statute miles
Distance between 20.1N 55.6W and 19.2N 33.5W is
1439.9202 statute miles
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