ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

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BrianD
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1281 Postby BrianD » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:07 am

plasticup wrote:
BrianD wrote:Some say a butterfly fluttering it's wings in africa can cause a hurricane to churn up, also keep in mind any number of the many tiny things such as this can cause many different outcomes we will never be foolproof when it comes to predicting mother nature's plans or her wrath and must always be prepared for the worst

You are talking about chaos theory, which simply doesn't apply on these time scales. The 2-3 day pattern will not be determined by butterflies in Africa, although the 15-day outlook might be.

This close to the trough, the behavior is very very predictable.



Yeah I was talking about it in that segment but I wasn't putting that into account for steering the dang thing. LOL. I am saying nothing is foolproof, I've been going to college studying and meteorology, climatology, for 12 years now and will continue to keep going. I am sorry but nothing you can say is going to put any of my faith into models. I stay quiet on this board as it is not my place to say what I really know and don't want to because when you do look at all the members that are always asking wxman57, KWT, and all the other mets question after question I prefer to keep my knowledge a hidden factor and will continue to do so. Trough or no Trough a Cat4 hurricane is never predictable.

I have to edit this one more time I'm going to get upset lmao. too, too tired, beginning of a new semester always gets me.
Last edited by BrianD on Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:19 am, edited 4 times in total.
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#1282 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:11 am

So now I know who to ask for information! Ahah! Haha :lol:

"Thanks Julia for that fascinating report! In our other top story, my ADT numbers continue to fall, and I have tripped the rapid dissipation flag as well."

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2010 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 17:45:09 N Lon : 51:10:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.2mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.9 5.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : +16.0C Cloud Region Temp : -61.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
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#1283 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:32 am

Still at 17.7 N ... has not turned yet.. all the 00z guidance has initialized either wnw or NW motion.. lol
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#1284 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:39 am

LOL isn't it funny Aric...Still chugging DUE WEST
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#1285 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:45 am

It has gone a slight bit north...but just barely. Like...maybe a football field barely :lol: Maybe the sky really is falling
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1286 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:54 am

Looks like colder cloud tops starting to fire on the southern eye wall. Along with that, I see another slight jog west rather than the north wobble it took in the passed 2 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-bd.html
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#1287 Postby Scorpion » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:00 am

But, wasn't it already supposed to be headed NW by now? :lol:
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Re:

#1288 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:04 am

Scorpion wrote:But, wasn't it already supposed to be headed NW by now? :lol:


Honestly, we're done for. It's going to stay south and slam into South Carolina as a cat 4!!!

On a serious note, two days after the projected NW turn, a strong cat 4 storm continues to chug due west... 8-)
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#1289 Postby bahamaswx » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:13 am

He will turn. Have faith!
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#1290 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:14 am

Wow! Just checking in since this morning and still chugging due west almost. Somebody is wrong here.
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#1291 Postby jonj2040 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:26 am

It certainly has had a nice blow up of convection on the South side in the last couple of frames.
I was wondering if the waning convection earlier was due to D-min, or was it due to some other factor?

Image

loop:
http://microurl.info/d9s
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Re:

#1292 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:28 am

jonj2040 wrote:It certainly has had a nice blow up of convection on the South side in the last couple of frames.
I was wondering if the waning convection earlier was due to D-min, or was it due to some other factor?

Image

loop:
http://microurl.info/d9s

It was an eyewall replacement cycle.
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#1293 Postby Normandy » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:49 am

Westward motion fail. Looks like itll move east of the next forecast point, so it seems the turn is indeed beginning.
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Re:

#1294 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:59 am

Normandy wrote:Westward motion fail. Looks like itll move east of the next forecast point, so it seems the turn is indeed beginning.


How many times has this been said tonight? Its just another wobble.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1295 Postby stormhunter7 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 2:01 am

do agree that the so called "turn" that everyone is talking about is now happening... the last 4-6 hrs... minus sat. eclipse... eye has moved to the NW more then west... I do not believe this is a wobble.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html
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#1296 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Sep 14, 2010 2:03 am

Still riding along 17.7
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1297 Postby kungfut » Tue Sep 14, 2010 2:06 am

getting close.

Holy Crap. TURN BABY!!! TURN

Im on st. john. This would be major destruction here
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1298 Postby Crostorm » Tue Sep 14, 2010 2:45 am

Image
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1299 Postby boca » Tue Sep 14, 2010 2:48 am

Check out this staduim effect from Igor.This kinda reminds me of Isabel from 2003.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp ... s_anim.gif
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#1300 Postby gixxer » Tue Sep 14, 2010 3:49 am

looks like about 17.9N now.
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