ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

...CATEGORY 4 IGOR NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 51.7W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

[Lori]

According to the NHC Igor has started to turn.

"SATELLITE FIXES OF THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF IGOR INDICATE THAT THE
MUCH-AWAITED TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST HAS OCCURRED...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/7. VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS
BEEN MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK ON THIS PACKAGE. "

[WeatherGuesser]

Weakening and turning

[cpdaman]

the turn has been made

seems the west motion continued to about 3 am last nite....then boom

looks to be 305 degrees to me....from 615 utc to 845 utc

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[abajan]

Even without official confirmation from the NHC, the turn ought now to be very obvious to everyone. Get some sleep peeps!

[abajan]

Igor will turn east of the Caribbean. But it may cross 20N between 56W-58w rather than 55W as per last NHC track.

Well if it makes it to 58 before 20 then the Northern Islands could definitely be feeling some affects no?

20N/58W would be nearly 300 miles from the NE Caribbean. At that distance they might see some cirrus outflow but no squalls. Some large NE well, too.

Yep. As a matter of fact, I can see some of that cirrus outflow right now outside my window! The swells will probably start rolling in tonight.

[Gustywind]

[bvigal]

Here is a markup map for advisory 25 showing forecast wind radii proximity to Leeward Islands. Caution: These are forecast sustained winds from the hurricane, not to be confused with gusts which may occur in thunderstorms, which can reach tropical storm force, so don't assume areas outside the purple circle can't possibly experience winds at or above 35kt.

[Vortmax1]

It makes me happy to wake up and see that Igor has begun to turn.
Just keep going Igor.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. I also feel better this morning about the change in direction,but I prefer for Igor to pass 20N to then sound the all clear here in the NE Caribbean.Overall,is looking good now trackwise.

[bvigal]

Morning, Luis! Yes, there's no way I won't continue to watch Igor. Besides, who could help it, he's a very impressive and interesting 'cane!

[bvigal]

Check out this staduim effect from Igor.This kinda reminds me of Isabel from 2003.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp ... s_anim.gif

Sometimes the best pics are posted in the wee hours, and this is one not to miss! Thanks, Boca!!

[Vortmax1]

Good morning Luis. Now you can relax a little bit I hope. At least there is motion in the right direction now.

That satellite loop is a great one bvigal!
That CIMMS blog is always interesting.

[KWT]

Yeah the islands were never ever in danger from this, the biggest threat though is to Bermuda and they are right in the middle of the cone right now...and given its made the turn maybe a touch slower then expected isn't good news for them...

[O Town]

Yep, looks like Igor successfully started making his turn, even a bit N of the NHC track.

[bvigal]

Yeah the islands were never ever in danger from this, the biggest threat though is to Bermuda and they are right in the middle of the cone right now...and given its made the turn maybe a touch slower then expected isn't good news for them...

I agree about Bermuda, KWT. But the statement about the islands could be misunderstood. Some of the islands were in the error cone for a while. As the cone is designed for a purpose, concern by prudent islanders was justified.

[KWT]

They were briefly right at the end of the cone and right at the edge on Saturday 5 days out, given the models were in *total* agreement of it missing and the fact that they were just on the cones edge I'd say there was never really a threat to the Islands...at all...

[dexterlabio]

Congratulations, America. Seems to be going on a NW turn by now.

[Gustywind]

Hey my friends from the Leewards... optimism trend this morning as the wnw turn expected is in route Whereas and as usual let's continue to follow mister VIGOR IGOR moving away from the Lesser Antilles. Be always vigilant.
Here is the latest from Crown Weather
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Tuesday, September 14, 2010 620 am EDT/520 am CDT

Hurricane Igor:
For Information About Hurricane Igor with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3068 .

Igor is a 135 mph Category 4 hurricane this morning. The hurricane is expected to continue to undergo fluctuations in strength due to inner core processes over the next couple of days. With that said, environmental conditions will be quite favorable for the next 2 to 3 days and Igor should maintain Category 4 strength right through Thursday. Some weakening is possible this weekend, however, Igor could threaten Bermuda as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane on Sunday.

Igor is now tracking west-northwest with a motion fix of between 285 and 295 degrees at a forward speed of 8 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show a broad trough of low pressure just off of the US East Coast. The model guidance forecast that a weakness in the ridge of high pressure will cause Igor to turn slowly to the northwest and then north-northwest later this week into this weekend. The NOGAPS and UKMET models may be too far west in their forecast track of Igor, however, these trends will have to be watched very closely. As it stands right now, Bermuda is at highest risk right now of being directly affected by Igor with the GFS and some of the dynamical consensus models forecasting a direct strike on the island on Sunday.

So, Igor will miss the Leeward and Virgin Islands by a safe distance; that is a guarantee.
The latest European model forecasts a turn north and then northeast around 66 to 67 West Longitude with the UKMET model forecasting this turn occurring in the same general area. I think the turn northward will hold off until the hurricane is between 65 and 69 West Longitude, however, this turn is still 4 to 5 days away from happening and a lot can change between now and then. The threat to the US East Coast is nearly nil as I now see nothing that would allow Igor to make it that far west. All interests in Bermuda, however, should keep very close tabs on Igor as this hurricane could affect you late this weekend.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Wednesday morning.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

[canes101]

Wow.. I knew he would defiantly turn, but talk about an About Face