
ATL: JULIA - Ex-TC - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm JULIA - Discussion
Another view of the eye-feature.


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- brunota2003
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Re:
brunota2003 wrote:Three intensity estimates from CIMSS has it at:
ADT: 994 mb 55 kt (03:15Z)
AMSU: 994 mb 58 kt (20Z)
SATCON: 994 mb 57 kt (20Z)
And the ADT:
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2010 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 15:37:02 N Lon : 28:02:26 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 994.0mb/ 55.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.7 3.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -33.1C Cloud Region Temp : -61.3C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm JULIA - Discussion
Perhaps Julia will become a hurricane sooner than expected.
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Re:
fasterdisaster wrote:I think they're underestimating her intensity by a LOT.
Absolutely, she looks like she's nearing hurricane status, I'd go with 65-70 for the next advisory.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm JULIA - Discussion
Theres no reason for them to be conservative or wait for H status. Shes well on her way and at 5 we may see Hurricane Julia.
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bob rulz wrote:Wow, straight to hurricane. Talk about quick intensification.
Huh?
It's been a TS for what, 36 hours?
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Re: Re:
I think bob rulz was talking about it going straight to a hurricane instead of just a stronger tropical storm from the 11 pm to 5 am updates. But I agree it’s a strange way to phrase it.WeatherGuesser wrote:bob rulz wrote:Wow, straight to hurricane. Talk about quick intensification.
Huh?
It's been a TS for what, 36 hours?
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Hurricane JULIA - Discussion


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Not a bad looking system, not all that surprising it made it to hurricane status though it did manage it even earlier then expected, and interestingly managed it east of 30W as well.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
its not suprising at all. it was at 50kt at 5 p.m. yet looked better than that. she only needed 15 or so knots to be up-graded, probably could've called it at 11. they waited till vis came up. might even make it to cat 2 status in the next day or so. just goes to show how bad intensity forecasts are, just a guess really.
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Yeah CC I thought it looked stronger then it was yesterday, its just that Dvorak caught up with the systems strengthening overnight it seems which has promoted the NHC to upgrade.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: ATL: Hurricane JULIA - Discussion
Julia, at 29W, is now the furthest east Cape Verde storm to develop into a hurricane since Jeanne in 1998, beating out Fred last year (30.6W) and Danielle in 2004 (30W), but falling fall short of Jeanne (26W). However, Vince in 2005 was much further east (18.6W), it just wasn't a Cape Verde hurricane. Still though, that's quite impressive. Conditions out there are ridiculously favorable this year.
EDIT: Frances in 1980 seems to hold the non-Vince record, becoming a hurricane at 25.6W. In addition to Ivan, also in 1980 (30.5W), these are the only hurricanes that have formed east of 32W in the modern era. As far as I can tell, Julia is the fourth-easternmost hurricane to develop in the Atlantic basin (this of course doesn't count storms that moved into these longitudes while they were already hurricanes).
EDIT: Frances in 1980 seems to hold the non-Vince record, becoming a hurricane at 25.6W. In addition to Ivan, also in 1980 (30.5W), these are the only hurricanes that have formed east of 32W in the modern era. As far as I can tell, Julia is the fourth-easternmost hurricane to develop in the Atlantic basin (this of course doesn't count storms that moved into these longitudes while they were already hurricanes).
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Re: ATL: Hurricane JULIA - Discussion
Hello Julia Gulia! Looking good this morning
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2010 Archive: HURRICANE ALEX, TD TWO, TS BONNIE, TS COLIN, TD FIVE, HURRICANE DANIELLE, HURRICANE EARL, TS FIONA, TS GASTON, TS HERMINE, HURRICANE IGOR, HURRICANE JULIA, HURRICANE KARL, HURRICANE LISA, TS MATTHEW, TS NICOLE, HURRICANE OTTO, HURRICANE PAULA (Active)
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