ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[bvigal]

They were briefly right at the end of the cone and right at the edge on Saturday 5 days out, given the models were in *total* agreement of it missing and the fact that they were just on the cones edge I'd say there was never really a threat to the Islands...at all...

That may be true, I was speaking to the inference that no one in the islands should have "never, ever" had any concern.

Yeah the islands were never ever in danger from this...

Since I'm sitting here downwind of this hurricane, my choice is to follow expert's advice. From NWS San Juan this morning:

LATEST TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST AND ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TAKE IGOR ON A TRACK WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK...ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON HURRICANE IGOR FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE STILL EXPECT AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN AND SEVERAL SURGES OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO AFFECT THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF IGOR.

Giving the utmost respect to NHC forecasts, which is the official agency responsible for informing the public in Atlantic basin, some of us here have experienced canes that didn't do what any of the models indicated. That's what the cone is all about. It's easy to make statements with relative certainty when your own life and property are not possibly at risk. My thinking certainly changed after moving here. After experiencing a storm or two, my outlook about probabilies changed drastically when one of these monsters is barreling this general direction.

[plasticup]

You can really see the eye wall replacement cycle developing:

[canes101]

There is an EWR Going on???? huh

[bvigal]

Hey my friends from the Leewards... optimism trend this morning as the wnw turn expected is in route Whereas and as usual let's continue to follow mister VIGOR IGOR moving away from the Lesser Antilles. Be always vigilant.

Good morning, Gusty. Yes, it's a good news day to wake up and see the turn has at last occurred. Looks like we are in for some nasty seas later this week. All mariners and beach-goers will need to pay close attention!

[Gustywind]

Hey my friends from the Leewards... optimism trend this morning as the wnw turn expected is in route Whereas and as usual let's continue to follow mister VIGOR IGOR moving away from the Lesser Antilles. Be always vigilant.

Good morning, Gusty. Yes, it's a good news day to wake up and see the turn has at last occurred. Looks like we are in for some nasty seas later this week. All mariners and beach-goers will need to pay close attention!

Good morning my BVIGAL i feel the shape in your smile . Yeah we should monitor especially the sea, you're right! Let's continue to monitor Igor ...

[Aric Dunn]

There is an EWR Going on???? huh

yep...

and hes stair stepping... back westerly again..the last couple hours..

[Gustywind]

[canes101]

I thought an EWR meant the Eye is deteriorating and a new eye is forming?? I dont see any deterioration?

[Aric Dunn]

I thought an EWR meant the Eye is deteriorating and a new eye is forming?? I dont see any deterioration?

this process can take hours or days.. it still has concentric features and sometimes its takes a while to choke off the inner eyewall.

[plasticup]

I thought an EWR meant the Eye is deteriorating and a new eye is forming?? I dont see any deterioration?

Outside of the main eye you can see another wall of strong convection starting. This second eyewall will start to contract today and then the inner eye will start to breakup. Sometimes this involves the inner eye filling completely, but not necessarily.

[canes101]

Well one things for sure.. Not looking good for Bermuda....

[hurricaneCW]

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... _model.gif

The island is right in the cross hairs of the models.

[Gustywind]

Given the latest from SSD
HAS PASSED THE 18°N
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/1145 UTC 18.1N 52.0W T5.5/6.0 IGOR -- Atlantic
14/0615 UTC 17.8N 51.4W T5.5/6.5 IGOR -- Atlantic

[msbee]

Yeah the islands were never ever in danger from this, the biggest threat though is to Bermuda and they are right in the middle of the cone right now...and given its made the turn maybe a touch slower then expected isn't good news for them...

H KWT
I agree Bermuda is of concern.
I am watching for them.
There is one thing you have to undsratsnd though, not living in the area.
you say the islands were never a concern. Maybe you are right, but don't dismss the anxiety the people in the islandss feel.
For those of us living here it's a different scenario.
we don't breathe a sigh of relief until these canes hit 20 N latitude.
We have experienced too many scenarios where we were told not to be concerned, it's going to turn, and then it never turns, or it passes much closer to us than expected.
Look at Earl. Earl caused a lot of damage in the islands even though he passed north of us.
So we remain concerned until that 20 N is hit.

[Solaris]

movement is back to south of NW in the most recent frames. biggest model cluster see Igor passing pretty close to 55 W 20 N. imo that will be a good point for comparisons.

[Gustywind]

Yeah the islands were never ever in danger from this, the biggest threat though is to Bermuda and they are right in the middle of the cone right now...and given its made the turn maybe a touch slower then expected isn't good news for them...

H KWT
I agree Bermuda is of concern.
I am watching for them.
There is one thing you have to understand though, not living in the area.
you say the islands were never a concern. Maybe you are right, but don't dismss the anxiety the people in the islands feel.
For those of us living here it's a different scenario.
we don't breathe a sigh of relief until these canes hit 20 N latitude.
We have experienced too many scenarios where we were told not to be concerned, it's going to turn, and then it never turns, or it passes much closer to us than expected.
Look at Earl. Earl caused a lot of damage in the islands even though he passed north of us.
So we remain concerned until that 20 N is hit.

Right Msbee all dangers are not spared til the 20°N and that's why we should continue to monitor Igor and don't let our guard down.

[canes101]

Hurricane Igor Video from the new GOES 15 Satellite. It’s 1:40 minute in length, watch it closely and watch the incredible detail that can be seen.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyeqRvQT ... _embedded#!

[KWT]

Giving the utmost respect to NHC forecasts, which is the official agency responsible for informing the public in Atlantic basin, some of us here have experienced canes that didn't do what any of the models indicated. That's what the cone is all about. It's easy to make statements with relative certainty when your own life and property are not possibly at risk. My thinking certainly changed after moving here. After experiencing a storm or two, my outlook about probabilies changed drastically when one of these monsters is barreling this general direction.

Yeah I may have been a touch flippant there and actually swells are a risk, I think thats what San Juan are talking about.

I was refering however to the idea that the islands could take a direct hit like they did with say Earl and I still stand by that, given we've had weakness the whole season at 60W...given that we have a system already at 17.5N and given that the models were in total agreement for this to lift out a good distance away from the islands, the threat of a direct hit was at best tiny...but I suppose you don't even need a direct hit sometimes for people to lose lives...

The models can be wrong, esp further out as we saw with Earl but from about 3 days ago it was perfectly obvious from the total agreement (not even an outlier ensemble tracked over the Islands I think) that the curve up was going to spare the Islands of any major risk outside the usual issues of large swells/rip currents.

[msbee]

Hurricane Igor Video from the new GOES 15 Satellite. It’s 1:40 minute in length, watch it closely and watch the incredible detail that can be seen.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyeqRvQT ... _embedded#!

wow, fantastic video
thanks for sharing!

[TheBurn]