Caribbean - Central America Weather

[expat2carib]

Started to watch PGI45L still over Africa. It has model support and "says to gonna be" a low rider. This meaning low latitude into the Caribbean. Not to worry yet as there are extreme many uncertainties. Just worth keeping an eye on though.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109375&hilit=

Thanks Expat2Carib. Should that mean that the ridge could be stronger to see this possible puppy moving west across the Islands? Waouw things are becoming very suspicious. Hopefully we have time to wait and see, but as you well said "Just worth keeping an eye on though". Dont' let our guard down.

Yes. Even that those loooong time predictions are mostly fantasy land and should be taken with a grain of salt.

[tropicana]

GUSTYWIND wrote:- Thanks my friend Justin for this daily job!


You are welcome gusty! my pleasure! Hopefully, everyone down there stays safe, lets hope that big bad IGOR does veer away from the islands at a safe distance.

-justin-

[Gustywind]

Started to watch PGI45L still over Africa. It has model support and "says to gonna be" a low rider. This meaning low latitude into the Caribbean. Not to worry yet as there are extreme many uncertainties. Just worth keeping an eye on though.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109375&hilit=

Thanks Expat2Carib. Should that mean that the ridge could be stronger to see this possible puppy moving west across the Islands? Waouw things are becoming very suspicious. Hopefully we have time to wait and see, but as you well said "Just worth keeping an eye on though". Dont' let our guard down.

Yes. Even that those loooong time predictions are mostly fantasy land and should be taken with a grain of salt.

Absolutely my friend that's the "perfect" way to deal with these predictions. Let's be vigilant as Igor seems to love wobbling west south west or even south west given some untrained eyes of amateur. Wait and see we have enough time ahead to follow the progress of the impressive VIGOR IGOR .

[cycloneye]

Results from 11 AM Advisory.

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 24.4N, 59.4W or about 590.0 miles (949.5 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 85.3 hours (Friday, September 17 at 0:18AM AST).

[Gustywind]

GUSTYWIND wrote:- Thanks my friend Justin for this daily job!


You are welcome gusty! my pleasure! Hopefully, everyone down there stays safe, lets hope that big bad IGOR does veer away from the islands at a safe distance.

-justin-

Glad to see you once again, very strong job we appreciate sincerely . We're happy to read all these nice infos in live, congrats for you my friend.

[kungfut]

hey. anyone think this will stay west???? It's real big, and I don't trust those models.

[cycloneye]

hey. anyone think this will stay west???? It's real big, and I don't trust those models.

First,welcome to the Caribbean/Centralamerica thread. Where do you live?

About going west,yes,is doing that now,nbut a trough will deviate it to the Noerthwest.But until that happens, we can't feel confortable.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL
DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES LOCALLY FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HURRICANE IGOR IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST MOISTURE
CONFINED TO PASSING BANDS. THUS...GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BUT...THERE WILL STILL BE DIURNALLY AND
NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IGOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING MAINLY
WEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE A WEST NORTHWEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST TURN TAKES PLACE. LATEST TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST
AND ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TAKE IGOR ON A TRACK
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK...ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE IGOR FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WE STILL EXPECT AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN AND
SEVERAL SURGES OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF IGOR.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST...
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
13/22Z OR 23Z IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST SWELLS BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS AND PASSAGES OPEN
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL PULSES OF MODERATE TO LARGE
SWELLS FROM THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH NORTHEAST
OR NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT AND LONG LASTING LOCAL
SWELL EVENT...WITH MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS BECOMING QUITE
HAZARDOUS...INCLUDING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SOME AREAS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXPANDING TO OTHER WATERS. IN
ADDITION...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL ALSO PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING COASTLINES BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.

&&

[abajan]

Earlier today, part of a five minute regional news roundup on the radio stated that there was flooding in eastern Trinidad yesterday. Can anyone provide details of the situation?

Thanks.

[cycloneye]

As of 5 PM Advisory. Almost the same as 11 AM.

http://stormcarib.com/closest1.htm

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 24.4N, 59.4W or about 590.0 miles (949.5 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 79.1 hours (Friday, September 17 at 0:06AM AST).

[kungfut]

hi. thanks for the welcome.
Im on st. john. No damage to my house apparently, but this one makes me worried.
I left right before earl, and am hoping this one misses. I am skeptical.

Not to be a bummer but, isn't something this big completely in control of where it goes, regardless of high pressure, sheer or whatever. It has a mind of it';s own and does what it wants. ??

i am uninformed so any info would be good.

[bvigal]

Hi neighbors! Have been mostly offline since last night, and phone company said it was damage from Earl. Started having problems last Tuesday with noise in phone line. By last night the DSL kept dropping out. By this morning, the phone was completely dead. It's funny, because it worked fine for 2 weeks after Earl. It was rains that caused the problem, the more it rained yesterday, the worse it got! So today we feel a bit better about Igor, though anything 6kt shy of a Cat 5 is difficult to ignore. I'm sure everyone who felt Earl will be watching this tonight/tomorrow a.m. for that north turn. I checked the position of Earl when he crossed 50W, and there's a 2 degree difference from Igor!
Earl 15.70 -50.10 08/28/09Z 50 999 TROPICAL STORM
Igor 17.70 -50.50 09/13/21Z 130 933 HURRICANE-4
That's a good thing!

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Always a bit of anxiety when impressive canes are churning near the Lesser Antilles. By the way, a friend from St Croix seems to be a bit streesed... and that's pretty understandable! Hope that the outcome with the NW turn expected of Igor will happen very quickly tonight or tommorow. If not... that could be another story more worrying. Stay tuned and on your guard Leewardians!
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/stcroix.shtml

- Let's all Shout -- Turn, IGOR, Turn !
By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2010 19:43:22 -0500

Good evening friends in the Caribbean!

Will anyone sleep tonight..?? Dave says that this hurricane is 1200 miles from stem to stem! On the Weather Channel they said this evening that it could cover from Dallas to Washington, D.C.! Has there ever been a hurricane like this before? Probably in strength, perhaps not in size. It is still moving to the West, in our direction. The islands look like ants next to IGOR, the giant! That one model - XTRP- is still pointing straight West; (this model is based on a consistent 12 hour motion). All the other models are pointing upwards to Bermuda. I hope those folks are ready for this one. They certainly are getting more than their share of hurricane stress this season.

Earlier, IGOR did a small wobble to the WSW. It dropped a bit south and now it's at 17.7N again where it was all day yesterday. IGOR seems to like this latitude. Hurricane wobbles are nerve wrecking. It's not something that can be controlled by science or by computer models. Hurricanes are not marionettes by any means. This one may not even react to the trough that's expected to move it away from us. The troughs themselves could be steering clear of IGOR! Well, well, what are we to do but wait, watch, and pray that IGOR follow "suggestions" and move beyond latitude 18..It would be good if we can get some "shut-eye" in the meanwhile, better still, if we can shut IGOR's big eye, so much the better. Will try to check back later. God bless us all.

Isabel

[cycloneye]

Results of miles from San Juan as of 11 PM Advisory. A little bit closer but still over 500 miles.

http://stormcarib.com/closest1.htm

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 24.2N, 59.7W or about 566.7 miles (912.1 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 73.2 hours (Friday, September 17 at 0:12AM AST).

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall
Mon Sep 13 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 34.3C 94F 0.4mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 31.6C 89F 0.3mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.9C 90F

Point Salines, Grenada 31.0C 88F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.5C 89F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 32.9C 91F trace

Hewannora St Lucia 31.6C 89F 2.2mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 31.6C 89F 30.0mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 32.0C 90F
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 32.0C 90F

Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.3C 86F 0.6mm
VC Bird, Antigua 30.6C 87F trace
San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.6C 87F trace

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 32.7C 91F 3.6mm
Kingston, Jamaica 30.0C 86F 25.0mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 29.1C 84F 1.3mm
Havana, Cuba 32.4C 90F

Nassau, Bahamas 32.2C 90F
Hamilton, Bermuda 27.9C 82F trace

Hato Airport, Curacao 32.5C 91F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 31.9C 90F 0.1mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 32.1C 90F

-justin-

[bvigal]

Good morning! Feeling better about Igor this morning, now that he's finally above 17.7N, which he stubbornly held for 48hrs through last night at 11pm.
Advisory #25, 5amAST: Position 17.9N 51.7W, motion 285 degrees @ 07kts, wind 115kt, gusts to 140kt, pressure 945mb. 12ft seas extend up to the following distances in nautical miles, by quadrant: 390NE 240SE 240SW 330NW

Here is a markup map for advisory 25 showing forecast wind radii proximity to Leeward Islands. Caution: These are forecast sustained winds from the hurricane, not to be confused with gusts which may occur in thunderstorms, which can reach tropical storm force, so don't assume areas outside the purple circle can't possibly experience winds at or above 35kt.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. I also feel better this morning about the change in direction,but I prefer for Igor to pass 20N to then sound the all clear.Overall,is looking good now.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN
AN OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HURRICANE IGOR IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. AN
OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH
MOST MOISTURE CONFINED TO PASSING BANDS. THUS...GENERALLY FAIR AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IN FACT...SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND MIMIC PWAT PRODUCT SHOWED A RELATIVE DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AT THIS MOMENT. IN ADDITION...THE GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST DECREASING TREND OF PWAT VALUES JUST BELOW 1.5
INCHES FOR TODAY AND DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COMBINE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO INDUCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT WIDESPREAD PCPN IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT.

CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IGOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING MAINLY
WEST THIS MORNING...BEFORE A WEST NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
TURN TAKES PLACE. LATEST TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST AND ALL AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TAKE IGOR ON A TRACK WELL NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK...ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON HURRICANE IGOR FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE STILL EXPECT AN OVERALL SHIFT IN
THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN AND SEVERAL SURGES OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF IGOR.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS IN A LLVL ENE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS. A VCSH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS WELL AS TJSJ THROUGH
14/14Z...WITH AFTERNOON ISOLD SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL EXPECTED TO BRING A VCTS OR VCSH NEAR TJPS AND
TJMZ BETWEEN 14/17Z-14/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST SWELLS BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS AND PASSAGES OPEN
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL PULSES OF MODERATE TO LARGE SWELLS FROM THE EAST
THEN NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH NORTHEAST OR NORTH. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT AND LONG LASTING LOCAL SWELL EVENT...WITH
MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS BECOMING QUITE HAZARDOUS...INCLUDING
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR SOME AREAS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXPANDING TO
OTHER WATERS. IN ADDITION...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL ALSO
PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR SOME NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING
COASTLINES BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

[expat2carib]

Good morning. Finally I'm feeling much more confident. The turn did begin.The leeward islands will have "minimal" wind and rain effects as far as it looks now.

Swells and riptides can be expected.

Bad for Bermuda. For them I hope Igor will weaken more than expected.

[msbee]

20 N! I want to hear 20N!
then I can start breathing again!