ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[tailgater]

Latest Nam doesn't even make it into the BOC but it is the NAM and has been trying to bring it north for the last 3 or 4 days. Bombs it out also.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[South Texas Storms]

any chance that happens?
or is this a for sure track from the yucatan to central mexico?

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

nice ridge....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

ridge is shrinking

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

[ROCK]

Latest Nam doesn't even make it into the BOC but it is the NAM and has been trying to bring it north for the last 3 or 4 days. Bombs it out also.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

so close I start to look at the NAM for ridge placement....obvoiusly if this can develope it would pull polward and see just how strong that ridge is in 84hrs....

[Wx_Warrior]

nam also had 92L north of the island for many runs.

[ROCK]

nam also had 92L north of the island for many runs.

yeah yeah..the 0z GFS is in the BOC and about to make landfall into MX....

[cycloneye]

Wxman57, any chance for development will wait until it gets to the BOC right?

[KWT]

Still not a total certainty the system even makes the BoC all depends on whether the ridge weakens a little forecasted...to be honest it should do but ya never totally know!

Once in the BoC, conditions are favourable and I suspect development is highly probable there, though how strong it can get depends on how far north it can get I suspect.

[Thunder44]

Convection is increasing again around the center this morning. But the surrounding buoys don't show a closed surface circulation.

[Aric Dunn]

well this morning ... its seems the broad "center" is a little better defined...lets see if it hold convection now...

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141144
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
...AND ON RECENTLY-UPGRADED HURRICANE JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 330
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND IT HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...
CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

Looks very near TD status this morning. Where have we seen a slowly developing disturbance undergo cyclogenisis just prior the the Yucatan this season? Alex, I believe.

[HURAKAN]

Bouy 42057

Code: Select all

7:50 am S ( 173 deg ) 8.9 kts
7:40 am SSE ( 155 deg ) 6.6 kts
7:30 am ESE ( 105 deg ) 8.0 kts
7:20 am NE ( 54 deg ) 7.6 kts
7:10 am NE ( 42 deg ) 10.3 kts
7:00 am NE ( 36 deg ) 8.9 kts


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

The one in the middle

[srainhoutx]

14/1145 UTC 18.0N 82.2W T2.0/2.0 92L -- Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

72 hrs .. they're expecting intensification in the BOC

[srainhoutx]

Sandy, it may well be a TD now. NHC will likely wait on RECON, but I suspect it is safe to say there will be a W wind out there somewhere this morning.

[tolakram]

No way this qualifies for a TD yet, it's had, what, 15 minutes of convection.

Seriously, I think they have to wait till the convection holds for 24 hours before calling it, barring any extremely rapid development.

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[KWT]

Expected to move a little WSW, so central/southern Mexico certainly seem to be in the danger zone right now from the looks of things.

[Ivanhater]

I think this one is a go

[KWT]

Its looking much better right now, going to have to gain some latitude if its even to get into the BoC mind you looking at where any center is likely to be now.

Should go code red IMO...