ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[wxman57]

Wxman57, any chance for development will wait until it gets to the BOC right?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

Well.... might have a shot at TD today and a TS as it approaches the Yucatan. It's always amazing how quickly a disturbance with no convection can change to one that looks well on its way to a TD.

[HURAKAN]

Visible loops indicate that the circulation is much more impressive this morning.

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[KWT]

Sure does look like its on its way, exactly the same thing Alex did on its approach to the Yucatan...W Caribbean doing it yet again!

[Ivanhater]

Wxman57, any chance for development will wait until it gets to the BOC right?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

Well.... might have a shot at TD today and a TS as it approaches the Yucatan. It's always amazing how quickly a disturbance with no convection can change to one that looks well on its way to a TD.

This might be a signal of the energy focusing back in the Western ATL for the second half of the season. If some of the models are correct, the next wave behind Julia might just give the U.S some trouble.

[hurricaneCW]

The problem is that it doesn't have a lot of time and it's not north enough to even get into the BOC. I think at best we'll see is a TD.

Never mind, I didn't take a look at the models, but they clearly indicate enough time in the BOC for it to develop. My guess is that it'll develop pretty quickly, Hermine style, but the landfall location will be a good deal further south.

[HURAKAN]

12z

AL, 92, 2010091412, , BEST, 0, 175N, 822W, 30, 1006, DB

we may be close to TD #13

[KWT]

If it does develop before the Yucatan it almost certainly is going to have a shot at being a hurricane in the BoC I suspect. Track looks like WNW ove the Yucatan then maybe west/south of west into central Mexico.

We saw what Alex did, get down to 947mbs, can't rule out this one getting nearly as strong IMO...

[Andy_L]

The problem is that it doesn't have a lot of time and it's not north enough to even get into the BOC. I think at best we'll see is a TD.

Shouldn't your posts have a disclaimer attached? I've read a lot of yours lately stating things as FACT without seeing any kind of disclaimer. no offense intended but unless you're a professional met, i thought the disclaimer was mandatory

[ColinDelia]

Nice rotation now

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful pic!

[Sanibel]

The dry air keeps knocking it down and by the time it pulses back on it doesn't have enough energy to overcome the dry air.

[Ivanhater]

The dry air keeps knocking it down and by the time it pulses back on it doesn't have enough energy to overcome the dry air.

Convection continues to increase around the obvious LLC. Now that we have a LLC, the pulsing action will likely give way to more persistent convection. It is now in the Western Caribbean where most of the models started developing this. IMO, this is a TD and recon will likely confirm this afternoon.

[Sanibel]

Maybe, but I think we are seeing an anomalous year where the Caribbean isn't favorable during the height of the season. I think this is due to some weird Nina effect where the negativity is transferred from the EPAC side. If I remember correctly in most years these Caribbean-traversing systems would take root much easier. Weird winter this year, and now weird tropical season (as far as the Caribbean anyway).

[Sanibel]

[Portastorm]

I realize things can change ... but right now, you can get a good sense of how strong the ridge is over the Gulf by looking at this WV loop. Should this continue, and it is predicted to continue, I don't see how 92L (or if it becomes named) will get above 20 degrees north.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[srainhoutx]

Maybe, but I think we are seeing an anomalous year where the Caribbean isn't favorable during the height of the season. I think this is due to some weird Nina effect where the negativity is transferred from the EPAC side. If I remember correctly in most years these Caribbean-traversing systems would take root much easier. Weird winter this year, and now weird tropical season (as far as the Caribbean anyway).

Actually it is not all that uncommon to see lack of activity in the Caribbean during a Moderate La Nina during mid season. What we are beginning to see is a change in pattern that has been present since July. Add to the mix an anomalous Kelvin Wave and MJO pulse progressing eastward and we have a recipe that will likely see activity ramp up IMO. We may well be seeing the effect of that progression now with 92L.

[dwsqos2]

I'll join the chorus of those who say that development chances are incresing based upon visible satellite trends and buoy reports.

I guess I should qualify this as unofficial given that the NHC held it at 40%.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe it will go straight to TS Karl if Recon finds a closed LLC?

[ROCK]

Maybe, but I think we are seeing an anomalous year where the Caribbean isn't favorable during the height of the season. I think this is due to some weird Nina effect where the negativity is transferred from the EPAC side. If I remember correctly in most years these Caribbean-traversing systems would take root much easier. Weird winter this year, and now weird tropical season (as far as the Caribbean anyway).

Actually it is not all that uncommon to see lack of activity in the Caribbean during a Moderate La Nina during mid season. What we are beginning to see is a change in pattern that has been present since July. Add to the mix an anomalous Kelvin Wave and MJO pulse progressing eastward and we have a recipe that will likely see activity ramp up IMO. We may well be seeing the effect of that progression now with 92L.

I will have to agree with your Steve and Michael...I think this is the start of a ramp up in activity. Even the GFS is seeing lowering pressures all across the Carib...long range GFS had a storm in the GOM at 216hr...this is not over by any means....I think there are going to be some records broken in the first half of Oct for landfalling Hurricanes when there were none in the past...

[Ivanhater]

Maybe, but I think we are seeing an anomalous year where the Caribbean isn't favorable during the height of the season. I think this is due to some weird Nina effect where the negativity is transferred from the EPAC side. If I remember correctly in most years these Caribbean-traversing systems would take root much easier. Weird winter this year, and now weird tropical season (as far as the Caribbean anyway).

Actually it is not all that uncommon to see lack of activity in the Caribbean during a Moderate La Nina during mid season. What we are beginning to see is a change in pattern that has been present since July. Add to the mix an anomalous Kelvin Wave and MJO pulse progressing eastward and we have a recipe that will likely see activity ramp up IMO. We may well be seeing the effect of that progression now with 92L.

I will have to agree with your Steve and Michael...I think this is the start of a ramp up in activity. Even the GFS is seeing lowering pressures all across the Carib...long range GFS had a storm in the GOM at 216hr...this is not over by any means....I think there are going to be some records broken in the first half of Oct for landfalling Hurricanes when there were none in the past...

Not only is it not over, the season is just beginning for the Caribbean and Gulf.