WTPQ20 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 19.9N 128.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 20.7N 127.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
![Image](http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/2108/a002010091503.png)
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002
WTPN31 PGTW 150300
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.4N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.8N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.1N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.5N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.2N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.3N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 25.4N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 128.3E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
![Image](http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2787/wp12201010091500.gif)
WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
380 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A 142138Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS CURVED LOW
LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS OF 27 TO 30
KNOTS AT 142157Z AND 142209Z RESPECTIVELY. A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE WEST AND NORTH IS CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TD 12W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. AROUND TAU 36, TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND TURN NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TD 12W IS
THEN FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD, SOUTH OF OKINAWA, AND BEGIN
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE
EXTENSION THAT BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. AS TD 12W CONTINUES TO TRACK
FARTHER NORTH, POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INTO THE TUTT CELL TO THE EAST,
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION.
C. BY TAU 96, TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS BACK IN. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 96. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT IN TRACK PHILOSOPHY, ALTHOUGH DIFFERS IN THE TIMING OF
BOTH TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS FORECAST IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS, GFS, AND JGSM MODELS, WHICH TURN THE
SYSTEM MORE SLOWLY AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF OKINAWA. HOWEVER,
GFDN PULLS TD 12W FASTER NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER
OKINAWA AS IT ANALYSES THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND THEN BUILD BACK IN
FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS ALSO A POSSIBLE SCENARIO.//
![Image](http://img806.imageshack.us/img806/3152/201009150301mtsat2xvis1.jpg)
TXPN27 KNES 150307
SIMWIR
A. 12W (NONAME)
B. 15/0232Z
C. 20.1N
D. 128.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT/AMSU/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT=3.0 BASED ON .6 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET=2.5. FT BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
14/2138Z 19.7N 128.7E WINDSAT
14/2221Z 19.9N 128.6E AMSU
14/2254Z 19.9N 128.6E SSMIS
...SCHWARTZ
=
![Image](http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/3435/201009150117flag.gif)