ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Macrocane]

Up to 70%

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE
CARIBBEAN

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 710 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
...AND ON HURRICANE JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 355 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE WIND CIRCULATION
IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO AND BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Ivanhater]

No doubt about it. Notice they said TD later today (no mention of tomorrow). Recon will likely confirm.

[Ivanhater]

Banding continues to improve drastically

[Portastorm]

Off topic a bit but I found it a little funny that those here who weeks ago were shouting that this season is a colossal bust seem to be very quiet these days.

On to 92L ... impressive banding per latest satellite. I wonder if it will ramp up as quickly as Hermine did.

[srainhoutx]

No doubt we will need to watch carefully as the day unfolds. There have been indications that once a definable LLC developed that some rapid intensification could take place. We may well be seeing that at this time IMO.

[MGC]

Looks to be organizing fast....would not be surprised if recon finds a weak TS......NW Caribbean Sea working its magic once again.....Yucatan and if it survives crossing the Yucatan then northern Mexico as possibly a hurricane......MGC

[O Town]

[HenkL]

Winds WSW now at buoy 42057.

[CrazyC83]

Winds WSW now at buoy 42057.

Based on that, I would put out a Special Advisory now initiating TD13, and maybe Karl by the 2 pm intermediate advisory depending on Recon? It needs to be initiated at first evidence since warnings would be needed.

[dabears]

So what are the Projected Paths of this potential storm? Can someone post them for me? Do any of them bring into Texas? Austin, TX still has creeks that flooded. Any extra rain and we are in trouble. Austin, TX is one of most flood prone cities in the US, just found that out a couple of days ago.

[lester]

Looks like we'll be eating some crow pretty soon haha

Didn't see this coming

[Portastorm]

So what are the Projected Paths of this potential storm? Can someone post them for me? Do any of them bring into Texas? Austin, TX still has creeks that flooded. Any extra rain and we are in trouble. Austin, TX is one of most flood prone cities in the US, just found that out a couple of days ago.

On its current projected path ... we won't see anything more than a 20-30% chance of rain over the weekend into early next week, and that is assuming at least *some* of this system's moisture moves north into our area. Otherwise, I wouldn't expect anything.

[tolakram]

I'm in complete denial.

[lester]

So what are the Projected Paths of this potential storm? Can someone post them for me? Do any of them bring into Texas? Austin, TX still has creeks that flooded. Any extra rain and we are in trouble. Austin, TX is one of most flood prone cities in the US, just found that out a couple of days ago.

Looks to be another mexico storm, those poor people have been getting hit hard this year. Should still watch it though as the tropics are unpredictable.

[jlauderdal]

Winds WSW now at buoy 42057.

Based on that, I would put out a Special Advisory now initiating TD13, and maybe Karl by the 2 pm intermediate advisory depending on Recon? It needs to be initiated at first evidence since warnings would be needed.

you wouldn't wait for a vdm from recon before sending out your special advisory so you know if you have a center and the strenght?

[dabears]

Thanks

So what are the Projected Paths of this potential storm? Can someone post them for me? Do any of them bring into Texas? Austin, TX still has creeks that flooded. Any extra rain and we are in trouble. Austin, TX is one of most flood prone cities in the US, just found that out a couple of days ago.

On its current projected path ... we won't see anything more than a 20-30% chance of rain over the weekend into early next week, and that is assuming at least *some* of this system's moisture moves north into our area. Otherwise, I wouldn't expect anything.

[Sanibel]

I will have to agree with your Steve and Michael...I think this is the start of a ramp up in activity. ...

I never said there wasn't going to be a ramp-up in activity or that the season was over. I just said that it is unusual to have a system with as much of a head start as Gaston and 92L had enter the west Caribbean in mid September and struggle so much.

The structure has obviously improved today. My questions would be: Will there be another pulse down or has the west Caribbean finally done its thing? And how will this track affect overland weakening before BOC?

[tolakram]

I never said there wasn't going to be a ramp-up in activity or that the season was over. I just said that it is unusual to have a system with as much of a head start as Gaston and 92L had enter the west Caribbean in mid September and struggle so much.

I agree. I think everyone is always looking for season cancel comments. You all can think what you want, but for the number of named storms predicted every one of these disturbances needs to develop. It's not happening.

That has nothing to do with how good or bad this season is. Really it's simply a reflection of how utterly stupid predicting number of storms is. ACE is the place.

[Sanibel]

Well as members we should aim to avoid sidetracks and cut to the chase. 92L is showing good signs of west Caribbean enhancement with medium convection presentation. It is slowly developing on its way to an area where Alex and Hermine showed strong development.

[psyclone]

16 to 18 storms is certainly within reach at this point. i think 92l is destined to be another name off the list. we're on track