ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[cycloneye]

16 to 18 storms is certainly within reach at this point. i think 92l is destined to be another name off the list. we're on track

And the ACE will shoot up to around 200 when the season ends.

[latitude_20]

Belize radar loop:

[TheBurn]

[KWT]

Looks quite clearly a depression right now in the W.Caribbean, the Vis imagery makes it perfectly clear and the banding is rapidly improving, could quite easily be a 45-55kts TS coming into the Yucatan if this rate of improvement continues.

Also makes it a far more dangerous threat once in the BoC for Mexico...

[Brent]

I never said there wasn't going to be a ramp-up in activity or that the season was over. I just said that it is unusual to have a system with as much of a head start as Gaston and 92L had enter the west Caribbean in mid September and struggle so much.

I agree. I think everyone is always looking for season cancel comments. You all can think what you want, but for the number of named storms predicted every one of these disturbances needs to develop. It's not happening.

That has nothing to do with how good or bad this season is. Really it's simply a reflection of how utterly stupid predicting number of storms is. ACE is the place.

Karl... the 11th name on the list... on September 14th/15th? September's only half over and there's still October and maybe November to go. 16-18 is almost a certainty and I think we could even get 19-20 storms at this rate. We've had 7 storms(not counting Karl) in the past 3 1/2 weeks.

[lester]

I never said there wasn't going to be a ramp-up in activity or that the season was over. I just said that it is unusual to have a system with as much of a head start as Gaston and 92L had enter the west Caribbean in mid September and struggle so much.

I agree. I think everyone is always looking for season cancel comments. You all can think what you want, but for the number of named storms predicted every one of these disturbances needs to develop. It's not happening.

Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Igor and Julia say hi

[Thunder44]

Winds WSW now at buoy 42057.

Yep, there westerly wind over Honduras coast too. It appears to be organizing quite rapidly now. I expect the plane will find at least a TD today.

[latitude_20]

What time does recon fly/

[srainhoutx]

RECON is in the air 370 miles S of New Orleans.

[HURAKAN]

\WTNT21 KNGU 141530 COR
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED //
REF/A/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/141400Z SEP 10//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 141400)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.6N 82.3W TO 19.0N 87.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5N 82.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL GUIDANCE ARE DEPICTING
INTENSIFICATION OF A 1006 MB LOW SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MORE
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 85 TO 87
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 151530Z.//

[KWT]

Yep, there westerly wind over Honduras coast too. It appears to be organizing quite rapidly now. I expect the plane will find at least a TD today.

I'd be stunned into total silence if this isnt found to be a depression at least by recon...looks very good and wouldn't be all surprised to see Karl before landfall either.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps,look at that white area where 92L will track into. That is super heat potential.

[CrazyC83]

I would not be surprised if we have Hurricane Karl before landfall.

[HURAKAN]

Looking at the latest visible loops, I think the only question left is the intensity of the system. TD or TS?

[Portastorm]

I would not be surprised if we have Hurricane Karl before landfall.

First or second landfall?

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The water it is coming into is just SICK warm. I can see this bombing out rapidly before Yucatan landfall. If TD13 (or TS Karl, more likely IMO) is found, I would think the following warnings would be needed:

Hurricane Warning - Chetumal to Cancun

Hurricane Watch - Belize City to Chetumal

Tropical Storm Warning - Grand Cayman, Belize City to Chetumal, Cancun to Punta Xochen

[CrazyC83]

I would not be surprised if we have Hurricane Karl before landfall.

First or second landfall?

First landfall. I think this could absolutely BOMB in the next 24 hours.

[tolakram]

Yep, at this point I think we can be thankful that it's moving to the west as fast as it is. Unless it falls apart, again, this looks to be a rapid developer.

[Weatherfreak000]

Just for fun, assuming this develops today here is where we stand against other famous seasons...


2005- Hurricane Ophelia- 4 storms behind (and 2005 had a decent lull, only 2 storms until the rest of the month ended. I am not saying we will score 6 more storms this month including Karl, but we may get pretty darn close. THAT is impressive.

2004- Hurricane Jeanne- (When Karl is named we will officially be beating this season, as of now we are tied but technically still beating 2004 as Julia formed first.

1995- Hurricane Marilyn- 1995 beats us out thus far because they had a much better early season, since then we have been pumping out more storms. In fact, since Danielle formed we have seen more activity this season than any of the seasons I listed, and I don't need to include Karl for that fact. Incredible.

1969- Hurricane Holly- (Who knows how accurate this is..i'd say in our age of satellites we would be around the same number, but again who knows.

1933- 14 named storms by now. Staggering. 2005 is the only season beating that pace.


Basically, we are looking at most high probability of hyperactive classification, as well as on pace for a memorable number of storms. The SST's and Environmental clues did not lie. The only mistake we made was misinterpreting the complex patterns caused by such a prolific La Nina event as surely we are facing. This is of course, my opinion.

[tolakram]

It would be something if we manage to get up to 18. For the record my guess was 21 (IIRC). My guess was we would get a lot of low end development ... mostly tropical storms. You have to hope that whatever has kept Caribbean storms from forming until nearly on top of the YP continues for the rest of the year. IMO having the Caribbean get hyperactive is the only way we can reach the number of storms forecast, and that's the minimum number. I know a few promets are concerned that the Caribbean turns on as soon as CV turns off.