ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

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gotoman38
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1341 Postby gotoman38 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 7:59 am

Igor seen from Aqua satellite on polar orbit - Monday afternoon

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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1342 Postby TheBurn » Tue Sep 14, 2010 8:00 am

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plasticup

#1343 Postby plasticup » Tue Sep 14, 2010 8:09 am

Still a very impressive presentation, despite the EWRC.
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#1344 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 14, 2010 8:32 am

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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1345 Postby pcolaman » Tue Sep 14, 2010 9:02 am

So looks like its stair stepping now . Cant wait to see if it maintains its wnw motion.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1346 Postby Nj612 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 9:06 am

Yea it will be interesting to see if he keeps the WNW track at the 11am advisory.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1347 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 14, 2010 9:11 am

interesting track error posted by JB, like i have been saying for several years now, you want to be in the crosshairs 5 days out and beyond, as good as they are on track there is still a huge error, intensity even a bigger mystery, bottom line anything beyond 72 is really subject to change and even 72 has enough error to be the difference between a direct hit and fringe effects, enjoy the peace, think we start getting development west of 55 in the next couple of weeks, days of safety are waning for the USA


BigJoeBastardi26 mins 5 day track error on crossing 20 north from 5 pm Thursday will be around 500 miles was suppose to cross at 46 west. Closer to 55
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plasticup

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1348 Postby plasticup » Tue Sep 14, 2010 9:17 am

Yes, the 5-day error can be large, but the 3-day error has been very small in recent years. If you are in the cone 3 days out, you are almost guaranteed to feel something.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1349 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 14, 2010 9:30 am

plasticup wrote:Yes, the 5-day error can be large, but the 3-day error has been very small in recent years. If you are in the cone 3 days out, you are almost guaranteed to feel something.

About 150 miles at 72H but I will take that, that is the difference between a direct on fort lauderdale vs daytona beach area, huge difference in effects even with an IGOR. losing power is one thing, having your roof blown off is completely different but I have also said in the past, one of these times my "be in the crosshair" idea is going to get smoked and they will be dead on but until then i like being in the crosshairs even at 72H. All that being said, doesnt matter what NHC predicts or what I like, none of that has an effect on where the storm is going. I prepare if I am in the crossahirs at 72H because you never know and besides my wife won't let me cut it that close. i didnt put shutters on the back of the house(east facing) for wilma because i knew the direction of the wind wouldnt send things into those windows and I was right but that was the last time I was allowed to employ "Jims strategic hurricane shutter placement plan", :D
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#1350 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 9:43 am

it look on this gfs run that high close down to north of igor by thur http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1351 Postby canes04 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:15 am

If Igor continues at this pace he may get trapped by Friday.
Needs to pickup speed to catch the weakness.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1352 Postby TheBurn » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:38 am

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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1353 Postby plasticup » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:46 am

jlauderdal wrote:About 150 miles at 72H but I will take that, that is the difference between a direct on fort lauderdale vs daytona beach area, huge difference in effects even with an IGOR. losing power is one thing, having your roof blown off is completely different but I have also said in the past, one of these times my "be in the crosshair" idea is going to get smoked and they will be dead on but until then i like being in the crosshairs even at 72H. All that being said, doesnt matter what NHC predicts or what I like, none of that has an effect on where the storm is going. I prepare if I am in the crossahirs at 72H because you never know and besides my wife won't let me cut it that close. i didnt put shutters on the back of the house(east facing) for wilma because i knew the direction of the wind wouldnt send things into those windows and I was right but that was the last time I was allowed to employ "Jims strategic hurricane shutter placement plan", :D

Oh, there is definitely a difference between the eastern eyewall and the periphery of the CDO, but if you are in the 72-hour cone you'll likely get something.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1354 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:46 am

Nice wide satellite shot showing Igor, Julia, and 92L(Karl in the on deck circle)...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1355 Postby clfenwi » Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:47 am

jlauderdal wrote:interesting track error posted by JB, like i have been saying for several years now, you want to be in the crosshairs 5 days out and beyond, as good as they are on track there is still a huge error, intensity even a bigger mystery, bottom line anything beyond 72 is really subject to change and even 72 has enough error to be the difference between a direct hit and fringe effects, enjoy the peace, think we start getting development west of 55 in the next couple of weeks, days of safety are waning for the USA


BigJoeBastardi26 mins 5 day track error on crossing 20 north from 5 pm Thursday will be around 500 miles was suppose to cross at 46 west. Closer to 55


Just wanted to note that the overall track error isn't close to 500 miles; he's talking relative to a line of latitude. For a wnw storm tracking storm, one could have a 1000 nm error for where it crosses a line of latitude but still have a very low overall track error. Went and crunched the numbers and the average error for the 120h forecasts so far is 195 nautical miles; a good bit better than last year's average 120h error (292 nm).
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#1356 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:05 pm

Not a bad looking hurricane but clearly weaker now then it was, seems like this very slow EWRC is taking its toll on Igor, but got to imagine it'll probably reorganise itself some point in the next few days...

Going to need close watching in Bermuda, could well see a system nearly as strong as Fabian close by to thier shores...
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1357 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:05 pm

gotoman38 wrote:Igor seen from Aqua satellite on polar orbit - Monday afternoon

Image



Any wallpaper sized pictures of Igor from space?
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#1358 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:08 pm

Image

Latest microwave, EWRC in full view
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Re:

#1359 Postby pcolaman » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:16 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Latest microwave, EWRC in full view

Great looking storm !! Hope it doesnt have a change in mind and head toward the west :double:
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

#1360 Postby Pedro Fernández » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:25 pm

I would say IGOR is showing a pinwheel eye just right now... What do you think?

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