
ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion
Igor seen from Aqua satellite on polar orbit - Monday afternoon


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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion
So looks like its stair stepping now . Cant wait to see if it maintains its wnw motion.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion
Yea it will be interesting to see if he keeps the WNW track at the 11am advisory.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion
interesting track error posted by JB, like i have been saying for several years now, you want to be in the crosshairs 5 days out and beyond, as good as they are on track there is still a huge error, intensity even a bigger mystery, bottom line anything beyond 72 is really subject to change and even 72 has enough error to be the difference between a direct hit and fringe effects, enjoy the peace, think we start getting development west of 55 in the next couple of weeks, days of safety are waning for the USA
BigJoeBastardi26 mins 5 day track error on crossing 20 north from 5 pm Thursday will be around 500 miles was suppose to cross at 46 west. Closer to 55
BigJoeBastardi26 mins 5 day track error on crossing 20 north from 5 pm Thursday will be around 500 miles was suppose to cross at 46 west. Closer to 55
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion
Yes, the 5-day error can be large, but the 3-day error has been very small in recent years. If you are in the cone 3 days out, you are almost guaranteed to feel something.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion
plasticup wrote:Yes, the 5-day error can be large, but the 3-day error has been very small in recent years. If you are in the cone 3 days out, you are almost guaranteed to feel something.
About 150 miles at 72H but I will take that, that is the difference between a direct on fort lauderdale vs daytona beach area, huge difference in effects even with an IGOR. losing power is one thing, having your roof blown off is completely different but I have also said in the past, one of these times my "be in the crosshair" idea is going to get smoked and they will be dead on but until then i like being in the crosshairs even at 72H. All that being said, doesnt matter what NHC predicts or what I like, none of that has an effect on where the storm is going. I prepare if I am in the crossahirs at 72H because you never know and besides my wife won't let me cut it that close. i didnt put shutters on the back of the house(east facing) for wilma because i knew the direction of the wind wouldnt send things into those windows and I was right but that was the last time I was allowed to employ "Jims strategic hurricane shutter placement plan",

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it look on this gfs run that high close down to north of igor by thur http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion
If Igor continues at this pace he may get trapped by Friday.
Needs to pickup speed to catch the weakness.
Needs to pickup speed to catch the weakness.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion
jlauderdal wrote:About 150 miles at 72H but I will take that, that is the difference between a direct on fort lauderdale vs daytona beach area, huge difference in effects even with an IGOR. losing power is one thing, having your roof blown off is completely different but I have also said in the past, one of these times my "be in the crosshair" idea is going to get smoked and they will be dead on but until then i like being in the crosshairs even at 72H. All that being said, doesnt matter what NHC predicts or what I like, none of that has an effect on where the storm is going. I prepare if I am in the crossahirs at 72H because you never know and besides my wife won't let me cut it that close. i didnt put shutters on the back of the house(east facing) for wilma because i knew the direction of the wind wouldnt send things into those windows and I was right but that was the last time I was allowed to employ "Jims strategic hurricane shutter placement plan",
Oh, there is definitely a difference between the eastern eyewall and the periphery of the CDO, but if you are in the 72-hour cone you'll likely get something.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion
Nice wide satellite shot showing Igor, Julia, and 92L(Karl in the on deck circle)...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html
SFT
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html
SFT
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion
jlauderdal wrote:interesting track error posted by JB, like i have been saying for several years now, you want to be in the crosshairs 5 days out and beyond, as good as they are on track there is still a huge error, intensity even a bigger mystery, bottom line anything beyond 72 is really subject to change and even 72 has enough error to be the difference between a direct hit and fringe effects, enjoy the peace, think we start getting development west of 55 in the next couple of weeks, days of safety are waning for the USA
BigJoeBastardi26 mins 5 day track error on crossing 20 north from 5 pm Thursday will be around 500 miles was suppose to cross at 46 west. Closer to 55
Just wanted to note that the overall track error isn't close to 500 miles; he's talking relative to a line of latitude. For a wnw storm tracking storm, one could have a 1000 nm error for where it crosses a line of latitude but still have a very low overall track error. Went and crunched the numbers and the average error for the 120h forecasts so far is 195 nautical miles; a good bit better than last year's average 120h error (292 nm).
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Not a bad looking hurricane but clearly weaker now then it was, seems like this very slow EWRC is taking its toll on Igor, but got to imagine it'll probably reorganise itself some point in the next few days...
Going to need close watching in Bermuda, could well see a system nearly as strong as Fabian close by to thier shores...
Going to need close watching in Bermuda, could well see a system nearly as strong as Fabian close by to thier shores...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion
gotoman38 wrote:Igor seen from Aqua satellite on polar orbit - Monday afternoon
Any wallpaper sized pictures of Igor from space?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion
I would say IGOR is showing a pinwheel eye just right now... What do you think?


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